There aren’t a lot of hidden stories in Super Bowl XLI. The Bears have a strong defense and a weak offense. The Colts have a strong offense and a weak defense. The two head coaches are best friends, and they run the same defensive scheme. Peyton Manning is looking for his legacy, and Rex Grossman is looking for respect.

The real hidden story is that the game itself is much more of a toss-up than most people realize. Each team has significant flaws, and whoever wins will rank among the least impressive of the 41 Super Bowl champions. There’s a much better chance of that being Chicago than the oddsmakers would have you believe.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL According to the Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric — which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent — the Colts had the secondbest offense of the past decade, only trailing themselves two years ago.

The Colts ranked no. 1 or 2 in nearly every imaginable statistical split except the red zone. They allowed the fewest number of sacks in the league. They converted 56% of third-down opportunities, and no other team converted more than 50% — in fact, only one other team converted more than 45%. The Bears defense was also the best in the league for much of the season, but took a tumble after defensive tackle Tommie Harris was injured against Minnesota in Week 13. The “Tampa-2” defensive style used by both of these teams depends on getting a pass rush from the front four, so that seven players can be in pass coverage, and Harris may be the best pass-rushing tackle in the league.

The good news for Bears fans is that the Chicago defense finally reverted to form in the NFC Championship victory against New Orleans. It was first game since the Harris injury when the Bears played above-average pass defense, and the first game since the Harris injury when they had more than two takeaways.

Opponents have been concentrating on stopping Colts wideouts Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. That leaves the middle open for tight end Dallas Clark, but Chicago was the NFL’s best defense against tight ends. Lance Briggs is the best cover linebacker in the league, and Brian Urlacher isn’t far behind. Ben Watson was the only tight end this year to have more than 40 yards in a game against Chicago.

The linebackers probably won’t be covering Clark if he goes deep, however. The safeties are the weakness of the Chicago defense, and the Colts want Clark against one of those players rather than Briggs or Urlacher.

All the Colts’ passing success would not be possible without the threat of the run, and the Colts have an excellent running game. Rookie Joseph Addai gained more yards per carry this year (4.8) than veteran Edgerrin James gained last year (4.2), and Dominic Rhodes has been good in the postseason. The Bears are strong against the run, and the tendencies of each team match up. The Colts are better running up the middle than around the ends, and the Bears have better defense up the middle than around the ends. The Colts rarely break a long run, but the Bears allow more long runs than you might expect. The Colts’ running backs are rarely stuffed for no yardage, except in third- or fourthand-short situations. The Bears often stuff running backs on first or second down, but were just average in third- or fourth-andshort situations.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALLThe Colts gave up 22.5 points per game, more than any team that has ever made it to the Super Bowl — or any AFL or NFL champion prior to the Super Bowl era. There is a reason defenses like that don’t win the Super Bowl, but Colts fans would argue that Indianapolis is a completely different defense now.

During the regular season, the Colts allowed conversions on half of third- or fourth-down attempts, when no other team was above 46%. In the playoffs, only 10 of 40 third- or fourth-down attempts have converted for a new set of downs. However, the Colts defense regressed a bit against the Patriots, closer to what it was during the regular season.

Now that safety Bob Sanders is healthy, the Colts are bringing him up into the box to solve their longtime problems stopping the run. That leaves the middle of the field open, and despite their overall improvement in the postseason, the Colts have become more susceptible to the deep pass — especially the deep pass over the middle.

That happens to be what the Bears do well. The Bears are a classic, pre-West Coast-style offense. They run and throw long. Grossman has problems with accuracy and decisionmaking, but does well with the deep ball. He has Bernard Berrian and Rashied Davis, two fast receivers, as well as Desmond Clark running tight end seam routes. On the ground, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.4 and 4.7 yards per carry, respectively, over the second half of the season.

One way the Colts have improved against the run in the playoffs is by having defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rush inside rather than spinning outside as they usually do. That’s helped the Colts to stop runs up the middle, but they’ve still given up plenty of yards on runs behind the opposition left tackle. They’ll see lots of Jones and Benson behind Bears left tackle John Tait. It’s those tackle runs, not the runs straight up the gut, that improved for the Bears at midseason.

SPECIAL TEAMS If the Bears upset the Colts, special teams will play a significant role. The Colts have terrible kickoff and punt coverage, and the Bears have Devin Hester and an excellent crew that blocks for him. Combine Hester’s dynamic returns with a defense that gets a lot of takeaways, and the Bears started their average drive this year on the 32-yard line, which ranked fifth among NFL offenses. Hester led the league with six return touchdowns, while the Colts tied for the lead with three allowed.

OUTLOOK Statistical analysts in all sports often use a concept called “Pythagorean wins” to estimate wins based on points scored and allowed. 17 of the last 19 Super Bowls were won by one of the teams that finished first or second in the NFL in Pythagorean wins. The Bears finished second this year. The Colts were ninth. If they win, they will have the fewest Pythagorean wins of any Super Bowl champion in a 16-game season.

Until the Colts went on their playoff run, the defense simply was not championship quality. Rex Grossman is shaky, but teams have won the Super Bowl with shaky quarterbacks. No team has won with a below-average defense.

If Indianapolis plays defense like it did in the first two weeks of the playoffs, or Chicago plays defense like it did in the final weeks of the regular season, this won’t even be a game. The Colts will win easily.

The more likely scenario, however, is that both teams will play closer to what they showed during the regular season as well as in the conference championship games. In that case, it’s anybody’s ballgame. These were two of the most inconsistent teams in the league in 2006. If Rex Grossman can hit Bernard Berrian for a deep touchdown, Devin Hester can run one back, and Thomas Jones can gain yards, the Bears will win. If all of that happens early, they could even win in a blowout.

The Pick: Bears

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.