Bolts Stun Colts as AFC Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus
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On a Sunday that helped shape the AFC playoff picture, the team leading the wild card race- Jacksonville – eked out a win against the league’s worst team, while the two teams fighting for the other wild-card spot – San Diego and Pittsburgh – posted impressive victories over the league’s two hottest teams.
In the most significant of those games, the Chargers ended the Colts’ hopes of a perfect season with a 26-17 win in Indianapolis. The story of the game was the way the Chargers’ front seven dominated the Colts’ offensive line, sacking Peyton Manning four times (the most he’s been sacked since San Diego sacked him four times last year) and holding Edgerrin James to 25 rushing yards on 13 carries, his lowest output in a full game since 2002.
So how did they do it? The Chargers exposed the Colts’ leaky pass protection, no more conspicuously than on Manning’s very first attempt to drop back and pass. Rookie outside linebacker Shawne Merriman bowled over Colts right tackle Ryan Diem and dropped Manning. Opposing defenses have taken advantage of Diem repeatedly in recent weeks – Jacksonville’s Reggie Hayward beat him for two sacks last week and Tennessee’s Kyle Vanden Bosch beat him for two sacks the week before, although both of Vanden Bosch’s sacks were called back when his teammates committed illegal contact penalties.
Indianapolis had already wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs before the game, so the pounding Manning took will cause many to question whether coach Tony Dungy should have played him at all. But Indianapolis was likely motivated to try to knock San Diego out of the playoff race since the Chargers match up well against them. San Diego has a good running game and a physical defense, exactly the type of team that is best suited to cause Indianapolis problems in the postseason.
San Diego also exposed flaws in the Indianapolis secondary, where the coverage skills of cornerback Jason David and safety Bob Sanders are lacking. The Colts’ feisty defensive line usually doesn’t allow opposing quarterbacks time to set up for deep throws, but yesterday the Chargers held the Colts’ pass rushers in check for most of the game, and receivers Vincent Jackson, Keenan McCardell, and Eric Parker all caught long passes.
San Diego has a difficult schedule ahead, visiting Kansas City (which still has slim hopes of making the playoffs) next week and finishing up against Denver. Winning both will be tough, but the Chargers showed yesterday that they can beat anyone. The Colts are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but no one thinks they’re invincible, and if the offensive line can’t protect Manning and the secondary can’t prevent long passes, any one of the AFC contenders could beat Indianapolis in January.
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They may have some bragging rights over the league’s best team, but yesterday’s victory didn’t even put the Chargers in the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s 18-3 victory over Minnesota snapped the Vikings’ six-game winning streak and allowed the Steelers, at 9-5, to keep pace with the Chargers for the final AFC playoff slot.
Pittsburgh’s game plan focused on its running attack, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throwing only 15 passes against 33 hand offs. Big Ben even ran the ball himself six times. Although the Steelers finished with only 146 yards for an average of 3.6 yards a carry, their defense dominated Minnesota so thoroughly that keeping the clock running was all they needed from their offense.
Linebacker Joey Porter led that defense, with a sack and an interception of Brad Johnson, who had fueled Minnesota’s winning streak by avoiding sacks and turnovers. Linebacker Larry Foote had an outstanding game, with four tackles behind the line of scrimmage, including one where he and Porter converged on running back Michael Bennett in the end zone for a safety.
The ease with which the Vikings got to Roethlisberger (they sacked him four times) should cause the Steelers concern considering their conservative offensive game plan. Roethlisberger played yesterday with a splint on his injured thumb, and although he didn’t commit any turnovers, the combination of an inability to stop the pass rush and a quarterback with an injured throwing hand is a recipe for disaster.
Pittsburgh has an easy couple of games remaining, with a visit to Cleveland followed by a home game against Detroit in the finale. The Steelers have had an up-and-down season, but it will almost certainly end with an 11-5 record.
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Jacksonville improved to 10-4, maintaining a one-game lead over San Diego and Pittsburgh with a listless and worrisome effort that was just enough to beat the San Francisco 49ers.
Coach Jack Del Rio called the 10-9 win “not a thing of beauty,” and that was an understatement. Although the Jaguars never fumbled or threw an interception, they couldn’t move the ball consistently against the weak San Francisco defense, having to punt eight times. Quarterback David Garrard completed 21 of 40 passes for 216 yards and ran for 13 yards for the game’s only touchdown. Garrard has speed and a strong arm, but the Jaguars desperately need the injured Byron Leftwich to return to health by January.
Jacksonville held rookie quarterback Alex Smith to just eight completions on 24 attempts for 123 yards and an interception. And yet Jacksonville’s secondary didn’t have a great game – Smith completed passes of 47, 38, and 28 yards. Against a better quarterback – and just about every quarterback in the league is better than the talented but very overmatched Smith – Jacksonville’s defense will need to do a better job curtailing long passes.
Jacksonville plays 2-12 Houston next week and 4-10 Tennessee in the season finale, and needs to win only once to make the playoffs, so the Jaguars will almost certainly win one wild-card spot. An examination of the schedule both past and future is bad news for San Diego: If all three wildcard contenders win their remaining games, San Diego will be the odd team out. No matter what the Chargers do in December, a two-point loss at home to Pittsburgh in October, with which they gave the playoff tiebreaker to the Steelers, will most likely keep them at home on wild-card weekend, watching Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
Mr. Smith is a regular writer for FootballOutsiders.com.