In the history of the NCAA tournament, only four no. 13 seeds have made it as far as the Sweet 16.The first three were demolished upon arriving there by the region’s no. 1 seed, but the fourth, Bradley, could be headed toward a very different fate.

OAKLAND REGION

(1) Memphis vs. (13) Bradley (7:27 p.m.)

Bradley has two advantages working in its favor as it tries to become the lowest-seeded team ever to make the Elite Eight. First is what amounts to a home court advantage. Many times, the Sweet 16 location is cozily close to the school that is the region’s no. 1 seed, but that isn’t the case this year. The Braves will be taking on no. 1 seeded Memphis in Oakland, Calif., tonight, and you can bet the crowd will quickly side with the underdog – especially with UCLA playing in the other half of the bracket.

Second and more important, the Braves aren’t really a no.13 seed. The other teams seeded this low won their first two games in the more traditional underdog way – by playing way over their heads, making a ton of 3-pointers, and catching the favorites on an off day.

Bradley, on the other hand, was ranked no. 23 nationally in the computer rankings by USA Today guru Jeff Sagarin entering the tournament, which suggests it should have been a no. 6 seed. (Sagarin’s ratings, incidentally, are much more trustworthy than the simplistic RPI used by the NCAA, which takes no account of victory margin and pays scant attention to home court advantage). Even that ranking came with star center Patrick O’Bryant missing the season’s first eight games and not getting his sea legs until midseason.

Thus, the margin between these two teams is much closer than the seeding indicates. Bradley actually has a size advantage over the more heralded Tigers, with 7-foot O’Bryant having 3 inches on Memphis’s Joe Dorsey. If O’Bryant proves too troublesome, look for Tigers coach John Calipari to turn to 6-foot-11-inch freshman Kareem Cooper.

The Braves also have an edge in experience. Three seniors and a junior start alongside sophomore O’Bryant, with leading scorer Marcus Sommerville technically in his fifth year after taking a year off when he transferred from Iowa. Memphis, meanwhile, only has one upperclassman in its nine-man rotation.

The key will be pace. Memphis can play lightning fast, and at times it seems it has a track team on the court rather than a basketball squad. Bradley, meanwhile, is built on halfcourt execution and playing to its strength inside. The proof is in the point totals: The Tigers topped the 80-point mark 18 times this year, compared to just six for Bradley.

So if you’re watching the early going, keep track of how fast the scoreboard is moving. A game in the 60s means we could see our first-ever no. 13 seed in the Elite Eight. A game in the 80s, however, means we’ll have to wait another year.

In addition to the Bradley-Memphis tilt, three other games are on tap for tonight:

(2) UCLA vs. (3) Gonzaga (9:57 p.m.)

Normally, I would pick the Bruins to cruise in this one. They have a clear talent edge on Gonzaga’s one-man band and enough UCLA grads are in the Bay Area for the team to have the crowd on its side. On top of that, Bruins guard Cedric Bozeman is a good enough defender to keep Gonzaga scoring machine Adam Morrison in check.

A complicating factor, however, is the injury UCLA point guard Jordan Farmar suffered in Sunday’s win over Alabama – he has both a bruised left wrist and a sprained right thumb. The sensational sophomore was second on the team in scoring and first in assists, so any diminution of his abilities would be a major problem.

Farmar plans on playing with a brace on the wrist and says he’ll be fine, but I’ve seen this movie before. A lot of times when this happens, the guy insists on playing and then goes out and shoots 1-for-13. If Farmar is fine, I don’t see how the Bruins can lose, but I have my doubts about whether he’s really 100%.

ATLANTA REGION

(1) Duke vs. (4) LSU (7:10 p.m.)

Atlanta has one of the best basketball facilities in the country in Philips Arena. The seats are great, the sight lines perfect, the luxury boxes plentiful, and the setting intimate. So where are they playing this one? Right: the Georgia Dome – a football stadium that holds 60,000 people, none of whom will be within a quarter-mile of the court.

This is what frustrates me about the NCAA tournament – it stages its premier events in the worst possible locations for a fan. Imagine watching a game in Giants Stadium with a little basketball court in the middle and you’ll get the idea. Sadly, there are enough suckers out there that they still sell tickets for these games.

Those suckers will get to see the hazy outlines of a great post battle through their binoculars. All four starting big men in this contest – LSU’s Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas, and Duke’s Shelden Williams and Josh McRoberts – are absolute studs who will be in the NBA before too long. Thomas and McRoberts are among the best freshmen in the country and have the greatest upside, but tonight the major battle is between Davis’s girth (he goes 6-foot-9, 310 pounds), and Williams’s shot-blocking ability.

LSU will have to win the war in the paint, however, because its guards are no match for Duke’s. Of particular concern is Blue Devils sharpshooter J.J. Redick because the Tigers don’t seem to have any wing defenders who can stay with him as he roams the perimeter. Expect Duke to cruise.

(2) Texas vs. (6) West Virginia (9:40 p.m.)

This may be the most one-sided of the Sweet 16 matchups. Texas is quite possibly the second-best team in the country and, should the Longhorns advance to meet Duke, it would set up an epic regional final.

The Mountaineers have an unusual style featuring 3-pointers, back-door cuts, and 1-3-1 traps, and that can be tough on teams that are unfamiliar with them. But Texas has three days to prepare and a decisive edge in talent. Of particular note is Texas sophomore center LaMarcus Aldridge, the possible top pick in the NBA draft. But in Sunday’s 75-54 rout of N.C. State, it was the guards who did the damage, as Daniel Gibson and A.J. Abrams combined for 33 points and 11 assists. Expect them to do it again – they’ll have plenty of open looks once Texas breaks West Virginia’s traps.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.