A few weeks ago, nobody would have favored New England in this game. Jacksonville beat a number of impressive opponents early on while the Patriots – whose defense had completely collapsed – were only stumbling to first place thanks to a weak division.

But then New England reeled off a series of impressive victories, with the defense looking as strong as ever. The talk went up around the league – the defending champs were back just in time for the playoffs. And while the Patriots were making noise, the Jaguars put together a string of unimpressive performances, particularly on defense.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (12-4) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-6)
(Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

There is no doubt that New England’s defense was dominant during their four game winning streak, but all the excitement ignores that the opposition in these games wasn’t exactly top notch. The Patriots stopped the Brooks Bollinger-led Jets twice, along with the J.P. Losman-led Bills and a Tampa team playing its third straight road game.

The winning streak has been attributed to a number of personnel changes, but all of these changes were in place when the Patriots were slaughtered by Kansas City six weeks ago. Defensive end Richard Seymour and linebacker Tedy Bruschi were back from injury and Ellis Hobbs and Artell Hawkins had moved into the starting secondary.

Although Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich has missed five weeks with an ankle injury, he should be good to go this week. The receiver to look for is not veteran Jimmy Smith, who led the team in receiving yards, but Ernest Wilford. Wilford led the Jaguars in yards per catch and was one of the league’s 10 most valuable receivers per play according to DVOA. Why? Because the Patriots have been burned by second receivers over and over again this season.

Though New England’s improved pass defense isn’t all it is made out to be, its improved run defense is. In the first half of the season, the Pats allowed 4.1 yards per carry. Since Seymour returned in Week 10, the Pats have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry. And the Patriots never, ever let the opposition break a long running play. The Patriots have led the league in preventing runs over 10 yards for three straight seasons. No other team has even been in the top ten all three seasons.

When the Jaguars do run, they will do it with three different running backs. Veteran Fred Taylor, while no longer a star, is still useful. The bulkier Greg Jones has been injured and will be limited. LaBrandon Toefield had a huge game against Tennessee last week but standard caveats about the meaningless last week of the season apply.

But no matter who is running, the Jaguars should never run to the right, as they are the absolute worst team in the league running either behind the right tackle or around right end.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

This is where the Patriots will win this game. Even when every other part of the team was struggling at midseason, the New England passing game never wavered. It is led by two Super Bowl MVPs – quarterback Tom Brady and wide receiver Deion Branch. Only Indianapolis had more success passing this season.

The Jacksonville pass defense, meanwhile, has fallen apart over the past two months. After 10 weeks, the Jaguars led the league in pass defense DVOA. But over the past seven weeks, they rank 28th. The Jags are giving up more yards and more completions to every position except tight end, and intercepting the ball half as often. Worse still, this decline has come against the easier half of the schedule.

Could things be worse for Jacksonville? Actually, yes, because while New England’s offense is fairly healthy, Jacksonville’s defense is hurting badly. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson will try to play with a cast on his wrist, and could be ineffective or unable to play at all. Defensive ends Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer are questionable with a hamstring injury and a broken hand, respectively. Those happen to be the three players that lead the Jaguars in sacks. In addition, starting cornerback Kenny Wright left last week’s game with a knee injury, though he is listed as probable.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Special teams are generally balanced for both teams. Jacksonville’s Chris Hanson and Josh Miller are both excellent punters, though Miller was often betrayed by his coverage unit. Of course, New England’s Adam Vinatieri is the greatest postseason kicker of all time, while Jacksonville’s Josh Scobee specializes in distance, not accuracy.

OUTLOOK

There’s one more issue to discuss. No, not New England’s January experience, but New England’s January temperature. Home field advantage increases by roughly 15% when a southern team plays in a northern outdoor stadium after November 1, and the effect is even stronger when the game is played at night.

Hurting, shivering, and struggling to cover opposing receivers is not a recipe for playoff success. Jacksonville’s passing game should make some big plays despite the cold, but New England’s passing game will make more unless the Jaguars can somehow revert to the team that held Indianapolis to a combined 24 points way back in September.

The Pick: Patriots