Bruised Vikings Try to Hold Off Pack
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Of the NFL’s eight divisions, the NFC North provides the most interesting race going forward. Only two wins separate the four teams, and each squad has a distinctive personality: a scoring juggernaut in Minnesota, underachieving veterans in Green Bay, a feisty young offense in Detroit, and a feisty young defense in Chicago. The top two teams are trending downward, the bottom two upward, and the lack of quality teams in the conference means all four have a shot at the postseason.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-3)
In the topsy-turvy world of the NFL, where teams go from conference champion to last place in a matter of months, nothing defies expectations quite like a team that does not defy expectations. With the Minnesota Vikings, what you see is what you get.
In 2003, Football Outsiders’ Defense adjusted Value Over Average ratings, which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent, ranked the Vikings’ offense fifth in passing and fourth in rushing. Through nine weeks of 2004, the Vikings offense is in the exact same place: fifth in passing and fourth in rushing. Minnesota was terrible on special teams last year, and they’re terrible this year. Their defense collapsed in the second half of 2003, and they are still among the league’s worst in 2004.
Minnesota’s hold on the division lead is as tenuous as Randy Moss’s bum hamstring. The offense has not been the same since he left the field midway through the Week 6 game against New Orleans, though the quality of the Minnesota running game helped mask the decline.
The Vikings started the season 4-1,averaging 352 passing yards per game and 8.7 net yards per pass attempt (including sacks). Since Moss was injured, the Vikings are 1-2, averaging 187 passing yards per game and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt. Minnesota isn’t saying how many more games Moss will miss, but he won’t be on the field for the pivotal game with Green Bay this weekend.
The Vikings have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFC North, and five of their six division games have yet to be played. But even if they fail to hold onto the division title, the Vikings should be able to come out of the jumbled mess that is the NFC playoff picture with a wild card – provided the Moss injury is not worse than reported.
DETROIT LIONS (4-4)
Detroit fans had tempered expectations for the 2004 season. All they wanted was some development from the young players on offense and the end of the Lions’ ridiculous streak of 24 straight road losses. Since the offense has improved from disgraceful to reasonable, and the Lions have won not one but three games on the road, this season has to be considered a resounding success.
Now the Lions have the postseason in their sights, but their playoff odds may not be as strong as they think. The remaining schedule is not hard, and eight wins might be enough to take an NFC wild card, but midseason trends are not favorable to the Lions, whose biggest hurdle is inconsistency. Our metrics show the Lions as the NFL’s least consistent team over the first half of 2004.
As you might expect, the bulk of that inconsistency comes from the young offense, not the veteran defense. Third year quarterback Joey Harrington looks like a future star one play and an undeveloped rookie the next, with a frustrating habit of scrambling when he has no chance for a first down.
Harrington has become heavily dependent on rookie wideout Roy Williams, who started his NFL career with 17 catches and four TDs in his first three games. Since then he has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and the other receivers are not talented enough to get open consistently.
Detroit’s offense can get by on fewer yards because it is so good at protecting the ball. But both the offense and defense are worse on third downs than they are on first or second. That’s bad news, because while this aspect of a team usually improves from year to year – a major reason why San Diego’s offense has improved while Seattle’s has struggled – it doesn’t usually improve during the season.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-4)
To the list of unexpected MVP candidates – Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tiki Barber – one more name must be added: Grady Jackson.
Well, perhaps an MVP vote would be an overstatement, but there is no denying Jackson’s effect on the Packer defense. Green Bay picked up the defensive tackle off waivers from New Orleans in mid-2003, and his arrival coincided with a major drop in yards and points allowed.
Jackson was injured halfway through the first game of this season and in his absence the defense reverted to its performance from the first half of 2003.The Packers won that first game and the two since Jackson’s return; with him gone, they are 1-4.
The Packers have suffered numerous defensive injuries, and Jackson is just one player, but he significantly improves the Packers both by plugging up the middle of the defensive line and through a ripple effect whereby the rest of the defense can shift to responsibilities that play to their strengths. We can’t expect the Packers to return to the defensive dominance they showed at the end of last season, they should be average over the second half of 2004.
Average defense combined with their still-potent offense – Brett Favre and Ahman Green look to be over their injuries, and are poised for a strong stretch run – make the Packers a dangerous team, and statistical projections show them as the third-best NFC team over the final eight games, behind only Philadelphia and Seattle. Their two meetings with Minnesota will determine the division champion.
CHICAGO BEARS (3-5)
Of the four NFC North teams, Chicago is the farthest from making a run at the playoffs, and most observers would dismiss them from the discussion due to offensive ineptitude. But it is difficult to count out a team in a cold-weather city that goes into the second half of the season with an improving defense.
Lovie Smith’s arrival as head coach has spurred a defensive improvement from the Bears nearly as big as the defensive collapse in St. Louis following his departure. Their strength is pass defense, and only Baltimore has done a better job against passes on third down.
The Bears have impressed despite significant defensive injuries, and many of those players are now returning as reinforcements: linebacker Brian Urlacher and cornerback Jerry Azumah in the last two weeks, cornerback Charles Tillman in the near future.
Conventional NFL statistics, which rank the Bears ninth in yards allowed, understate the quality of this defense. The impotent Bears offense has left the defense overworked and in poor field position. Since promising young passer Rex Grossman was lost for the year in Week 3, the Bears have tormented fans with a pair of inadequate quarterbacks and an inconsistent ground attack.
Even if they finish 6-10, the Bears are worth watching over the second half because they’re likely to provide a fascinating example of how the press provides analysis without context.
Chicago has a strong defense and weak offense, but their second-half schedule is packed with teams that are the exact opposite, including the Colts, Vikings, and Texans. Consequently, the Bears’ offense will look like it’s improving, while their defense will look like it has regressed. Superficial improvement in the passing game looks nice, but to make a run at the playoffs the Bears will need a huge – and hugely unlikely – offensive step forward.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com