It is perhaps fitting, in light of this irrational college football season, that it is the no. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes that feel the need to justify their invitation to the Bowl Championship Series title game tonight in New Orleans. Their worthiness has been questioned despite three national championship game appearances (and five BCS bowls) the past six seasons, and a 66–10 mark during that span.

NO. 1 OHIO STATE (11–1) VS . NO. 2 LSU (11–2)
TONIGHT, 8 P.M., FOX

LSU has not had to defend itself to nearly the same degree, even though it is the first team to play for a BCS championship with two losses. Though it has also dominated in recent seasons — going 55–10 with one BCS title since 2003 — LSU hasn’t looked dominant for much of this season.

LSU opened with three wins by a 137–7 score — including a 48–7 humiliation of Orange Bowl-bound Virginia Tech — but the Tigers scuffled through the rest of the SEC schedule. The average score in their last eight conference games — including the league-championship win over Tennessee — was just 34–29. The Tigers only snuck into the championship thanks to a confluence of upsets on the season’s final day, but they are the presumed heavy favorites.

For the reasons why, one need look no further than last year’s BCS championship, in which the SEC’s Florida embarrassed Ohio State, 41–14. The Buckeyes were undefeated and heavily favored, while the once-beaten Gators struggled in several games down the stretch. Few people gave Florida a chance, yet the Gators offered a resounding victory that wasn’t as close as the blowout score.

Florida’s defense completely dominated Ohio State’s spread attack, as its ends turned the Ohio State tackles into little more than turnstiles on their way to harass Heisman-winning quarterback Troy Smith into a miserable night.

The Big Ten has long battled the perception that it plays plodding football, and what Florida did to Ohio State only solidified that notion. But the Big Ten has held its own against the SEC. Since 2000, the SEC only holds a one-game edge (11–10) in bowl games between the conferences. The Big Ten won the other two meetings last year, and is 1–1 so far this postseason. In perhaps the bowl season’s most-shocking result, Michigan upset Florida, 41–35, in the Capital One Bowl. Ohio State limited the Wolverines to 91 total yards in a 14–3 win over Michigan on November 17; Florida was torched for 524 yards. And while a great deal of Michigan’s success against the Gators could be attributed to the health of its star players, the Wolverines were certainly not at any speed disadvantage in the game.

LSU has its own defensive issues, as well as health concerns about star players. The Tigers’ defensive decline can be traced to knee and back injuries suffered by tackle Glenn Dorsey (who is a possible first-overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft). The injuries robbed Dorsey of his explosiveness, and without him collapsing the center of the line, the Tigers were gashed in the run game and failed to get to the quarterback. LSU registered just three sacks in its final four games, and its final ranking of 10th against the run includes 200 yards rushing by lowly Ole Miss and 385 by Arkansas in a triple-overtime upset.

Dorsey has had a month off to heal, and is said to be near 100%. If he can’t get a push in the middle, LSU certainly won’t abuse the Ohio State line as Florida did in the championship game a year ago. They may not be able to regardless.

Ohio State’s starting tackles, Kirk Barton and Alex Boone, have had to live with the indignity of their performance against Florida for an entire year. The press has asked them about it ever since they arrived in New Orleans for this year’s game. Both are confident they can hold up under the scrutiny this time around, but tonight’s game will not fall as much on their shoulders.

After Smith’s graduation, coach Jim Tressel has built this year’s Ohio State offense around a power I rushing attack. Most offensive linemen prefer the aggression of run-blocking to the more tactical approach of pass protection. Ohio State will probe the LSU defense with tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells and try to avoid putting this game on quarterback Todd Boeckman. Whereas Smith was the focus of the Ohio State offense, Boeckman is a game manager, charged with spreading the ball around and keeping the defense honest against Wells. Ohio State would prefer for him to not have to throw the ball 30 times, but can only accomplish that if Barton and Boone are clearing holes for Wells.

LSU’s quarterback Matt Flynn is also a game-manager, but the Tigers have an embarrassment of riches on offense. Ryan Perrilloux, a dangerous run-pass threat, will also see some time at quarterback. There is a stable of tailbacks, led by bruising Jacob Hester, a standout receiver in Early Doucet, and the fastest player in college football in all-purpose threat Trindon Holliday.

They will face an Ohio State defense that dominated the Big Ten and finished second in the nation. Defensive end Vernon Gholston could be a matchup nightmare for the LSU offensive line, and linebacker James Laurinaitis will help to keep the pressure off the secondary.

LSU would be wise to avoid the overconfidence that befell Ohio State last season, even if it gets off to a fast start in what will be a virtual home game in the Superdome. Ohio State has the best defense LSU has faced this season, and if it doesn’t tighten up its own defensive issues, the Buckeyes will leave the field with the title.

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.