Bulls in Good Position To Win East
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The season may be winding down, but there’s still plenty left to talk about. The Nets, for instance, are still trying to position themselves for the no. 6 seed in the East and have two games coming up against the Knicks to help them get it, while below them the Magic and Pacers fight it out for the East’s final playoff spot. And out west, the three-way race between Golden State, the Clippers, and the Hornets for the final playoff spot is also intriguing.
But today I wanted to look a bit higher in the standings, where some very interesting developments are taking place in the East that will have important postseason implications.
For starters, we have the plight of the defending world champions. The Miami Heat’s most recent slump — coming surprisingly when Dwyane Wade returned to the lineup — has put them into a very tenuous situation. By losing back-to-back games to the lowly Bobcats this past week, Miami’s hopes of catching Toronto for the no. 3 seed in the East have been dashed.
Instead the Heat will drop to no. 4, and find themselves fighting for their lives right from the get-go next week. A no. 3 slot would have produced either a very winnable first-round series against the Nets, or a downright walkover against the declawed Wizards (All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are injured). Instead, Miami finds itself in a likely matchup against LeBron James’s Cleveland squad.
Moreover, the Heat will have to advance without the benefit of home-court advantage. While Miami supporters will point out this didn’t hinder the team against Detroit and Dallas in last year’s postseason, the Heat face a very different situation this year. They’ll need to get past Cleveland (most likely) and LeBron James, followed by top-seeded Detroit, followed by Chicago, and won’t have home-court in any of those series. And that, mind you, is just to get back to the Finals — where they’ll again be a serious underdog against either Dallas, San Antonio, or Phoenix. It’s possible to envision them winning any one of these series, but the cumulative difficulty of winning all four in succession is daunting.
A lot of observers have been presuming that the Heat will get their act together and peak in the postseason, since that’s what they did a year ago, but I have doubts. While the Heat have fixed some of the more glaring flaws that marked their early-season struggles — especially at the defensive end — people too easily dismiss how much had to go right for the team a year ago.
Miami was extremely fortunate to have two easy early playoff rounds in the East, and equally lucky to have the Pistons’ offense implode in early May after Detroit had dominated the East all season. To their credit, they took advantage of these breaks, but it takes a huge leap of faith to figure that the stars will once again align in Miami’s favor — particularly with their best player nursing a wounded wing, Shaquille O’Neal looking more vulnerable than ever, and the veteran supporting cast a year closer to being just plain old. This is especially true with such a difficult path lying between them and the prize.
But Miami’s unfortunate seeding doesn’t affect only the Heat. The Cavs and Pistons will also end up with much tougher playoff pairings than they might have imagined, with the likely no. 5 Cavs drawing the Heat instead of a friendlier matchup against Toronto. And no matter how that firstround series turns out, the topseeded Pistons end up with a second-round opponent they hoped to avoid until the conference finals.
Meanwhile, a darkhorse quietly lurks on the other side of the bracket. If they take care of business in the next five days, Chicago will be the no. 2 seed in the East and find itself with a relatively easy path to the conference finals. The Bulls’ opening round is likely to be a four-game skip through the forest against Washington, while in round two they would probably face Toronto (sorry Nets fans) and again be a heavy favorite.
All of that might be of merely academic interest if it meant they’d be cannon fodder for the Pistons, Heat, or Cavs once they got there. But here’s the interesting part: Although the Bulls only have the second-best record in the East, you can make a compelling argument that they’re the best team in the conference. With a stifling defense led by Ben Wallace, shooters galore in the backcourt, an emerging star in rookie Tyrus Thomas, and a deep bench that includes Argentine wildman Andres Nocioni, the Bulls should not be overlooked.
For further evidence, consider this: In terms of point differential, the Bulls — not Detroit — have been the best team in the East. Chicago has outscored opponents by an average of 4.7 points a game entering yesterday’s games, bettering Detroit’s 4.2, Cleveland’s 3.1, and Toronto’s 1.2. The Bulls also beat the Pistons by 18 in their last meeting two weeks ago, and their stellar 18–6 mark since the All-Star break tops all Eastern teams.
So why is everyone overlooking the Bulls? Ironically, it’s probably for the same reason everyone overlooked Detroit in 2004. Like those Pistons, these Bulls have a bluecollar defensive mentality (and had it even before plucking Wallace from Detroit), one that doesn’t play well with Madison Avenue.
More important, they lack an electrifying superstar like Dwyane Wade or LeBron James for TV to thrust at the masses. Instead, they have a jump-shooting offense that spreads the wealth: Ben Gordon (21.4) is their only 20-point scorer, and only four players average more than eight points a game. Again, this doesn’t make for great theater, but it’s incredibly effective.
Combine that with the Bulls’ relative cakewalk through the playoffs compared with the other contenders, and it’s clear that our eyes are being pulled in the wrong direction. Everybody wants to focus on Wade vs. LeBron in Round 1 and the Heat-Pistons rematch in Round 2.
But if you’re looking ahead to June, keep one eye focused on the Bulls. Thanks to the playoff seedings and their own excellence, they’re the favorite to be the Eastern Conference’s last team standing.