Burden of History Weighs on Astros and White Sox in 102nd World Series
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

One hundred and three years is a long time to wait, but between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros, it’s just long enough to prepare for a league pennant and a shot at a world championship. The American League champions made their last appearance in the Fall Classic in 1959, but their most recent triumph predates even the infamous Black Sox scandal of 1919. Their counterparts from Texas, meanwhile, are making their first Series appearance after 44 years in the business – a major league record for futility.
Few observers expected these teams to slay the respective dragons of their leagues, but both came out on top behind a similar blend of lukewarm hitting and outstanding pitching and defense. Here’s Baseball Prospectus’s breakdown of every element of the 2005 World Series, complete with Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) ratings, which measure how much better, in runs, a player was over a freely available replacement at his position.
Adding Bagwell, who missed 123 games this season, makes a difference for a lineup that doesn’t generate many long at-bats and walks. Lamb has been hot during the last month and a half,but the Astros can’t count on that kind of production from him, so Bagwell, Lane, and Ensberg may find themselves on the spot. All three are right-handed batters who pull pitches, and if they can take advantage of the short left field walls in both stadiums,the Astros offense will deliver more punch than expected. Manager Phil Garner should be more willing to let Taveras and Biggio run since Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski has thrown out just 22.5% of baserunners this season.
The Astros went with a short bench in the NLCS,and will do so again now that the designated hitter is in play. If he isn’t starting as the DH instead of Bagwell, Palmeiro is this bench’s best weapon, mostly for his ability to get on base.The challenge for Garner will be using him at a time when his bat won’t be nullified by Guillen responding with either of his lefties out of the pen. After a lackluster rookie campaign, Burke has done enough to add his name to the team’s “Killer B’s” legend, and he’ll be in the lineup against lefty Mark Buehrle in Lamb’s place.
The Astros enjoy the same advantage in starting pitching against the White Sox that they did against the Braves and Cardinals. However, the Sox have caught a break in that the hottest of the three, Oswalt, won’t appear until the Game 3 after having to pitch the final game of the NLCS. This also sets up Oswalt for Game 7,should we get there.And we might. For all of his fame, Clemens still struggles in postseason games, as his bad start against the Braves demonstrated (nine baserunners and five runs in five innings). He’s also had serious trouble with Paul Konerko in past matchups, serving up five doubles and two home runs in 18 at-bats.
The Sox’ lineup might seem well-suited to face a lefty, but Pettitte has been especially hot down the stretch, going 7-0 in his last nine regular season starts. He also threw very well agains the Braves in the NLDS. Pettitte is among the best in the league at icing an opponent’s running game, so don’t be surprised when he catches the speedy Podsednik in a run-down.
Lidge’s meltdown against the Cardinals in Game 5 of the NLCS notwithstanding, Houston’s pen boasts an effective trio in Lidge, Wheeler, and Qualls. Garner isn’t afraid to insert Lidge into a ballgame before the ninth, which makes it that much more difficult to score against the Astros late in a game. Gallo, though, struggles against lefties, making him an odd sort of situational lefty; how he does against Pierzynski and Podsednik in the middle innings could make or break the outcome of a game.
Overall, this pen isn’t as well-equipped as Chicago’s for going deep into an extra-inning game. Rodriguez and Astacio both throw hard and are full of promise, but the Astros will struggle to win a game after the ninth.
Despite ranking fourth in baseball in the percentage of runs scored on home runs, Guillen’s Sox will try to be aggressive with Podsednik and Iguchi on the bases. But with Brad Ausmus behind the plate to disabuse base thieves of their ambitions, the Sox will have trouble running as much as advertised. With his running game in danger of being shut down, and going up against baseball’s finest trio of starting pitchers, Guillen’s willingness to bunt with anybody at any time will be an important tactical consideration.
However, if Konerko continues to bash a home run every other game, the Sox may not need to fuss too much about this stuff, and Guillen might continue to tone down the little ball after having overdone it during the first two games against the Angels.
It’s not a great bench, but Guillen uses it for specific purposes. Widger normally platoons with Pierzynski behind the plate, but with Pierzynski’s hot hitting, Ozzie may just let it ride. Barring injury, nobody else from this group will get to start a game. The question is whether Guillen will use lefties Harris or Perez to pinch-hit for any of the multiple right-handed hitters in the lineup against an Astros pen that has several very effective right-handed relievers.
All the Sox starters are veterans with good velocity, even if they’re not of the same caliber as Houston’s big three. The Sox do, however, have the advantage of a significant mismatch in Game 4, when Garcia will square off against Backe.With each of these guys logging a complete game win in the ALCS, confidence must be at an all-time high, though it makes you wonder how ready the bullpen is.
Smart ball’s least famous component is defense, as the Sox finished second in baseball in Defensive Efficiency, converting 71.3% of all balls in play into outs. All three starting outfielders cover a lot of ground,and Joe Crede and Juan Uribe might be the best defensive left side of an infield in baseball.
It’s been a rarity, but when the call does come for the Sox’ pen, fans will be reminded that this unit is one of the main reasons the Sox are still playing. Guillen doesn’t get hung up on applying labels like “closer” to his relievers. In Jenks, Hermanson, Politte, and Cotts, he has four relievers he can use against anybody in any inning, and he’s been willing to beat people with El Duque and Marte as well. Cotts and Marte will both be key pitchers in the series, as Guillen will use both to flip Berkman around to the right side of the plate to drain most of his power.
The Call
It would be relatively easy to pick the Astros. But because their best-performing starting pitcher is at the back end of the trio, the Sox’ depth in the rotation becomes more of a factor. Both managers excel with in-game tactics, which means an already tight matchup is that much more likely to depend on the tiniest bit of defensive execution.
This Series will have people talking about how fun it is to see baseball played the old way, with shorter games and great pitching.
White Sox in Six
Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art baseball commentary and information, visit their Web Site at www.baseballprospectus.com.