Buying in a Volatile Market, Yankees Made the Right Moves
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
It’s not quite Christmas, and yet the Yankees have been the beneficiaries of some unusually charitable impulses. Both Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte signed with the Yankees for far less than they might have received on the open market, boosting the team’s rotation at something less than New York prices.
This off-season, pitching has been hit by a wave of inflation worse than the one that hit the U.S. economy in the 1970s. The combination of the sport having a terrifically profitable year and a thin free agent class combined to create a perfect storm for sellers. Adam Eaton was given a three-year, $24.5 million deal by the Phillies. Ted Lilly, with a career ERA of 4.60,got four years and $40 million from the Cubs. The Cubs have also reportedly given Jason Marquis, a complete disaster in 2006 with a 6.02 ERA and just 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings, a three-year deal worth between $20 and $28 million, depending on the source. Vicente Padilla received three years and $33.75 million from the Rangers. Jason Schmidt got three years and $47 million from the Dodgers.
Given these figures, pitchers like Mussina and Pettitte, despite being in something less than mint condition, could have expected more than the two-year, $23 million contract and the one-year, $16 million contract (with an equivalent player option for a second year) they respectively received. Mussina’s health and effectiveness have varied in recent years, but he still has great control and an above-average ability to get batters to swing and miss. Pettitte had one of the best years of his career in 2005 and a great second half in 2006, but otherwise has struggled with his always balky elbow.
Even allowing for mileage, both pitchers are less of a gamble than, say, an Eaton or a Lilly. Neither Mussina nor Pettitte has won a Cy Young award, but both have had seasons of that calibre. They’ve scaled the heights and retain much of the ability that allowed them to do so. The others have never achieved those levels of success, and beyond the random variances of performance that both benefit and afflict pitchers, are unlikely to do so.
Schmidt is one of the more deserving pitchers to have benefited from the industry’s largesse, and because of this, he makes for an ideal comparison with Pettitte. Schmidt is less than a year younger than Pettitte. Like him, Schmidt has been in the majors since 1995, and he’s also had his share of injury problems. The righty has rarely been less than serviceable, but until recently he wasn’t a top tier pitcher. From 1995 through 2002, Schmidt went 69–62 with an ERA of 4.33, a below-average figure in the NL. It was only in 2003, at age 30, that he hit his stride. Since then, Schmidt has gone 58–28 with an excellent 3.33 ERA — but even in his era of mastery, his 2005 was derailed by injuries, leading to a 4.40 ERA.
Schmidt’s career ERA is 3.91, all of it compiled in the NL. Pettitte’s is 3.81, much of it compiled in the designated hitter league. He’s pitched over 200 innings five times. Pettitte has done so eight times. If Schmidt is worth $15.7 million a year, Pettitte could command more than $16 million.
Fortunately for the Yankees, both Pettitte and Mussina short-circuited the market for their services by expressing more interest in where they play than in how much they are paid. Mussina has never shown much interest in pitching for any team further away from his central Pennsylvania birthplace than New York or Baltimore. Pettitte limited his options to Houston, New York, or retire. Other teams attempted to get involved in the bidding, but they never had a chance. Pettitte generated leverage for himself with the threat of retirement, but the Yankees were never in real danger of being outbid, but rather had to find a salary spot that would intrigue the left-hander.
The result is a win-win situation for the Yankees. They get their former ace lefty back at a good price. Because he is motivated by more than money, they know they are unlikely to get burned by his contract option — if Pettitte doesn’t pitch well, he’ll go home rather than soak the Yankees for another paycheck. With starting pitching depth that is unusual for the Yankees at any time during the George Steinbrenner era — depending on the way the rotation is set up, health, and the progress of their prospects, they could have Kei Igawa, Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, Phil Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, and Tyler Clippard lined up to fill out the back end of the rotation by midseason — the team is well-positioned to survive if Pettitte is sidelined by his elbow.
If Pettitte doesn’t get hurt, then the Yankees can probably pencil in an ERA of around 4.25 into their starting rotation. That doesn’t sound like much, but it will be of great benefit. Last year’s options after Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang included Randy Johnson’s rehearsals for retirement, Shawn Chacon turning back into a pumpkin, and Jaret Wright’s five-innings-and-a-shower show. A consistent 4.25 ERA looks like the bounty that it really is. It means less pressure on the offense and especially the bullpen. Joe Torre has been managing for 30 years, but last season he set a personal record for relievers used. The bullpen won’t make it through a second consecutive year of overuse.
The Yankees have played the free agent pitching game brilliantly, which in this case means that they did nothing more than let the game come to them.
Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.