For the last few weeks, ESPN has been wasting our time with panel discussions on whether the 2005 USC Trojans are better than 1969 Texas or 1971 Nebraska or 1979 Alabama or whoever. They ought to be asking whether the 2005 Trojans are better than the 2005 Texas Longhorns. Most analysts jumped to an early conclusion of “Yes, obviously,” and let it go at that, which may be one reason why USC is a seven-point favorite, an enormous historical point spread by the standards of so-called games-of-the-century.

The numbers don’t support the seven points, but more on that in a moment. First, to put this game into perspective: Yes, there is no question that these are the two best teams in the country and that their meeting in tonight’s Rose Bowl could well produce the greatest offensive explosion in college football history. Both teams have a swarm of great defensive players, but neither got here on defense. The philosophical question to be answered tonight is not “What happens when an irresistible force meets an unmovable object?” but “What happens when an irresistible force meets an irresistible force?”

There is no clear reason why either team deserves to be anointed as the greatest of all time simply because of their offensive stats. This is, after all, an age when the rules and tactics of football are geared entirely to offense and in which old fashioned etiquette goes straight out the window – both of these teams have run up the score unmercifully on helpless opponents simply to pad their numbers and impress voters in the polls. Their opponents, of course, would have done the same thing given the opportunity; it’s the way the game is played today.

That being said,the Trojans and Longhorns are outstanding offensive teams by any era’s yardstick. It’s just that the yardstick of this era is substantially bigger: USC and Texas are literally the biggest teams ever to play for the national championship, with 18 starting linemen between them who average out at about a half pound below 300.

Perhaps as many as two dozen players from both squads will eventually make NFL rosters. Many of them, even the underclassmen, could crack the lineups of 10 or 12 NFL teams right now. USC, most believe, has the majority of these pro prospects, led by four amazing talents – quarterback Matt Leinart, running back Reggie Bush, fullback LenDale White, and wideout Dwayne Jarrett.

Many believe that Texas is, in fact, the deeper team, which could explain why the roster lacks the gaudy list of celebrities. For example, two Trojans, Bush and White, got 90% of the team’s rushing yards. Texas averaged nine yards per game more on the ground than USC, but divided the gains among five different backs. Jamaal Charles may not be a household name this morning, but with an average of 7.4 yards a carry and 11 touchdowns, he deserves to be.

USC averaged exactly 50 points per game on offense and allowed 21.3 points on defense. Texas trumped both numbers, scoring an average of 50.9 and – this is the one substantial difference between the two teams – allowing just 14.6. It is assumed that the Longhorns’ slight superiority in these stats is the result of having been compiled against a weaker schedule. This assumption is wrong. USC’s opponents were a collective 72-50, while UT’s were 72-48.

It’s the same all the way down the stat sheets: The Trojans and Longhorns are practically even, but nearly everywhere Texas has a slight edge. The Trojans average more yards per rush (6.6 to 5.8), but the Longhorns lead in yards per pass on offense (9.5 to 8.6), have a far lower yield on pass defense (4.7 to 6.6), have a substantial edge in kick return yardage – Reggie Bush notwithstanding- (26.9 to 22.2), and, especially, in both punt return average (15.9 to 8.6) and in PR Average Allowed (7.0 to 17.7). They even have a sizeable bulge in net punt average (35.2 to 28.9). Those who would disregard all of these numbers should be warned that the edges Texas has over USC in these stats are pretty much the same edges the Trojans had over the Oklahoma Sooners in last year’s BCS title game.

I think Texas will win this game by at least the seven points the bookies are picking them to lose by. Like Don Corleone, I will give you my reasons:

1. Defense. I don’t think either team’s defense can consistently stop the other team’s offense, but if one team makes a big defensive play or has a big defensive series, it’s likely to be Texas. The Longhorns’ front defensive four of tackles Rodrique Wright and Frank Okam and ends Brian Robison and Tim Crowder, who weigh in at 290 pounds a man, will not only be the strongest, but also the quickest unit the Trojans’ great offensive line has encountered. And if any linebacker is capable of making a big play on Bush or White, it’s Texas’s Aaron Harris.

But in truth, I don’t know exactly what Texas will do to slow the Trojan offense. What I do know is that Texas’s Gene Chizik is quite possibly the best defensive coordinator in the country. You like winning streaks? Here’s one for you: Chizik, who was defensive coach for Auburn in the 2004 before joining Texas, has now been on the winning side in 27 consecutive games. In 2004, Chizik had Auburn ranked first in the nation in scoring defense; this year, he has Texas sixth in yards and fourth in scoring.

2. Offensive Line. The biggest weight differential on the field will be the Longhorns’ offensive front five against the Trojans’ defensive front four; the difference is a rather eye-opening 39 pounds per man. If USC can’t match Texas at the point of attack, it will be forced to rely more than it would like on its outside linebackers, freshman Brian Cushing and sophomore Keith Rivers.

3. Getting Out of the Gate. Despite USC’s gaudy margin of victory, Texas was actually a much stronger first half team. This season, the Longhorns outscored their opponents in the first half by an average of 30.2 to 8.7,while the Trojans outscored theirs by an average of 24.0 to 11.2. The Trojans have proved to be fast closers – they scored 148 points in the fourth quarter to the Longhorns 98, but Texas usually had such a big lead that it was running the ball and resting starters in the fourth quarter.

This scenario does not look good for the Trojans, who can ill afford to fall behind a team with a better defense and an equally potent striking ability. If Texas is ahead when the third quarter begins, their bigger offensive line is going to be more and more of a factor.

4. Coaching. When did Pete Carroll become a genius? Certainly not in his one season with the New York Jets or this three with the New England Patriots, where he was a combined 33-31.Nor, for that matter, during his first season at USC, when he was 6-6. Carroll’s reputation as a genius rests entirely on his last three seasons, during which he has benefited from some extraordinary recruiting. But I’ve yet to see a single game in which Carroll’s coaching made the difference against a first-rate opponent.

Meanwhile, Texas’s Mack Brown has compiled an extraordinary head coaching resume. After consecutive 1-10 seasons with a dismal North Carolina team in 1988-89, Brown molded the Tar Heels into a national power that went 67-26 over the next eight seasons. In eight seasons in Austin, his record has been a Bear Bryant-like 82-19, including a 23-1 mark over the last two seasons. I have a few doubts about Carroll; I have none about Brown.

5. Vince Young. The Longhorn quarterback is the best football player in the country – a better passer than Leinart and a runner comparable to Bush. He doesn’t work for a union, and Mack Brown can give him the ball as much as he likes. Young was reportedly miffed when he heard that Bush won the Heisman Trophy. Good for him. Tonight he’s going to take it out on the USC defense.

Texas, 41-34

Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”