You can win a championship with three, or possibly even two strong starting pitchers, and a dominant closer. Think of the 1987 Minnesota Twins, who beat Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals in the World Series with Frank Viola, Bert Blyleven, Jeff Reardon, and nothing else. Viola and Blyleven started five of the seven games. Of the two games not started byViola and Blyleven — both of which were started by the immortal Les Straker — the Twins lost one and won the other thanks to a mid-game rally.

The Mets have a 12-game lead in mid-August. Not even the 1964 Phillies could blow that lead, although the Mets are now encountering some of the same factors that helped the Phillies choke a 6.5 game lead with just two weeks to play. That year in Philadelphia, manager Gene Mauch found his reliable starters reduced to two, Chris Short and Mets nemesis Jim Bunning.When the Phillies started losing, Mauch began to pitch Bunning and Short every two days. Of the 20 decisive games the Phillies played down the stretch, Bunning and Short started 11 of them. The Phillies went 6–14 over that span and were passed by a Cardinals team that went on to beat Yogi Berra’s Yankees in the World Series. The difference between the 1964 Phillies and the 1987 Twins is obvious: The postseason schedule allows a team to lean on a small number of pitchers without breaking them. The regular season does not.

No doubt Willie Randolph will not make the same foolish decision that Gene Mauch did, but he may be down to even fewer starting pitchers. Since mid-July, Tom Glavine has allowed 6.23 runs per nine innings; Pedro Martinez has allowed 5.75 and just headed back to the disabled list; Orlando Hernandez, who had pitched quite well until Tuesday night, has allowed 7.49; Steve Trachsel 5.88,and the deposed Mike Pelfrey 6.06. Only John Maine with four runs allowed in 28.1 innings during that span, has pitched well — and given his light résumé and lack of dominating stuff, he won’t carry a 2.64 ERA indefinitely. Recently acquired Pirates left-hander Oliver Perez seems more of a project than potential savior.

This is a difficult problem to solve, and if the Mets were in a closer race they might have to content themselves with slowly sinking from view.There is likely no pitcher available of the quality that the Mets would need to right their rotation, and will pass unclaimed through waivers. That being the case, the best hope for the team is likely to enjoy their large cushion and concentrate on getting Martinez healthy, Glavine righted (his two starts prior to Wednesday’s were vastly improved), and intensive group prayer sessions dedicated to El Duque finding his usual fall magic.

Of course, if you can’t strengthen the defense, you can try to add offense.With Carlos Beltran lately being flanked by Michael Tucker and Endy Chavez, the outfield doesn’t have the same offensive potential as it did in the days when Cliff Floyd was healthy and Xavier Nady was still on the team. That’s one reason that the acquisition of Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks may be imminent.

Beyond any on-field considerations, if Green is acquired his contract will make him a fixture. He’s signed through 2007 at about $10 million a year. There is a mutual option in his contract that requires a $2 million buyout if his team doesn’t feel like enjoying his company in 2008. If Green doesn’t produce both this fall and next year, he’s going to be a very pricey albatross.

A power hitter back in his days with the Blue Jays and Dodgers, the 33-year-old Green’s numbers have dropped significantly over the last few years despite what should have been a reinvigorating dose of Arizona’s hitter-friendly ballpark. From 2003 through 2005, Green batted .277 AVG/.354 OBA/.465 SLG with 69 home runs, barely acceptable figures for a corner outfielder. This year he’s hitting .281/.345/.424 with just 10 home runs in 399 at bats.

What’s most troublesome about Green’s numbers is that the majority of his production has come in his home park. Green has batted .288/.344/.449 at home, but an infielder-like .273/.346/.397 on the road. If the latter figure is what the Mets are going to get, they can stick with Chavez and Lastings Milledge.That consideration could change if Green wouldn’t cost the Mets anything of value in trade or if the Diamondbacks were willing to subsidize his salary next year. Typically, the smaller market clubs are reluctant to contribute money to the big city Mets and Yankees, but it could happen.

The bigger problem is that even Green in peak 2001 form, when he hit 49 home runs for the Dodgers, wouldn’t give the Mets enough punch to overcome a complete breakdown from the starting rotation. Since mid-July, the Mets have gone 17–11, which is slightly better than might be expected given how many runs they’ve scored and allowed. Assuming that Jose Reyes won’t be hitting three home runs nightly from now on, the pitching side of the equation is going to have to come into focus.

If not, the Mets are going to have experienced a frustrating season not unlike that of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who cruised to a record-setting 116 wins and then made a hasty exit from the playoffs. Still, there is hope. Remember the 1987 Twins. All you need is two starters and a strong closer. Billy Wagner answers to the latter description most nights. That leaves the two starters.They don’t necessarily have to be Glavine and Martinez. It could be Glavine and Maine, or Hernandez and Maine. The only sure thing is that the Mets have to find them.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.