Steve Finley’s dramatic game-winning, walk-off grand slam Saturday not only gave the Dodgers the NL West division title. The Dodgers’ franchise record 53rd come-from-behind win also encapsulated the team’s season. L.A. fought through controversial trades, shaky starting pitching, player blowups, and scathing press criticism to reach its first postseason in eight years.

The Cardinals can’t claim any such drama, as they obliterated the rest of the National League with a 105-57 record. With a loaded offense and surprising starting pitching, St. Louis will be a stern test to any challenger, starting with the Dodgers.

To rate these two teams, we’ll use Baseball Prospectus’s Value Over Replacement Player metric. VORP shows how much better, in runs, a player was over a freely available replacement at his position (like Jason Phillips).

ST LOUIS CARDINALS

BATTING ORDER

POS PLAYER VORP

2B TONY WOMACK 31.7
RF LARRY WALKER 38.2
1B ALBERT PUJOLS 100.4
3B SCOTT ROLEN 72.9
CF JIM EDMONDS 88.3
SS EDGAR RENTERIA 26.1
LF REGGIE SANDERS 21.6
C MIKE MATHENY -1.0

Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds form the most devastating heart of a batting order on the planet. Rolen’s calf problem has plagued him for weeks and could cut into his performance if it lingers. Walker was an excellent deadline pickup. Renteria hasn’t been anywhere near the force he was in 2003, but he’s still an above-average shortstop.

Matheny is an offensive cipher. Womack is a lousy player who’s suddenly cranked out a .300 average. You wonder how long he can stay useful with his lack of power, patience, or a useful glove at second base. Of course, in a short series, anyone can go 10-for-20, just as anyone can go 0-for-20.

BENCH

Another happy byproduct of the Walker deal is that it gave the Cards a legitimate threat off the bench in John Mabry. A scrap heap pickup in the off-season, Mabry has put up a gaudy line of .296 AVG/.363 OBP/.504 SLG this season in part-time duty, and offers a potent lefty bat off the pine.

You could even make a case for starting him over Sanders against a tough righty like Jeff Weaver, though Mabry has hit lefties better this season. Other than pinch-hitting for Matheny in key spots, expect the starters to go the distance; the less the bench plays, the better the Cards’ chances.

STARTING PITCHING

PLAYER VORP

WOODY WILLIAMS 28.4
JASON MARQUIS 38.9
MATT MORRIS 13.3
JEFF SUPPAN 22.3

Well they lack star power, that’s for sure. Still, GM Walt Jocketty’s low-cost signings of Suppan and Chris Carpenter have proven inspired, and Marquis has also been a find. Carpenter’s been the best of the bunch, but he won’t be available for this series due to injury. Morris, who’d been the staff ace in the past, gave up 35 homers in 32 starts this year, and Williams has shown tater-riffic tendencies in the past. It’ll help that the series’ road games happen at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.

BULLPEN

PLAYER VORP

JASON ISRINGHAUSEN 21.1
RAY KING 21.8
DANNY HAREN 5.5
STEVE KLINE 19.7
JULIAN TAVAREZ 19.1
CAL ELDRED 11.4
KIKO CALERO 14.1

The Cards’ pen should provide an interesting test case for a playoff debate: What’s more important in the post-season, a deep bullpen, or one headed by one or two dominant arms? You’d think Gagne and Rivera would be best. But in a series where both teams sport questionable starting rotations and strong offenses, the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings may be the most important for both clubs. If that happens, having depth with the likes of Tavarez, Kline, Calero, and King should help.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

BATTING ORDER

POS PLAYER VORP

SS CESAR IZTURIS 30.3
LF JAYSON WERTH 16.7
CF STEVE FINLEY 36.2
3B ADRIAN BELTRE 90.1
1B SHAWN GREEN 35.7
RF MILTON BRADLEY 26.0
2B ALEX CORA 19.7
C BRENT MAYNE -5.0

The 2004 Dodgers did what the 2003 Dodgers couldn’t, largely because of three major surprises. First, Izturis has learned to hit right-handed pitching. Second, Cora faded down the stretch, but he still brings a nifty lefty bat near the bottom of the order.

But by and large, the Dodgers have been the Adrian Beltre Show this season. A perennial disappointment, Beltre finally achieved the stardom long expected of him. Sandwiched between productive lefty swingers Finley and Green, the Dodgers will surely test Tony LaRussa’s legendary ability to make any game 30 minutes longer, thanks to his constantly-alternating cavalcade of relievers.

BENCH

The bench gives Dodger skipper Jim Tracy a chance to counteract LaRussa’s alternating relievers with a raft of good platoon bats: Hee Sop Choi, Jason Grabowski, and Robin Ventura make good fill-ins and strong pinch-hitters against righties; Olmedo Saenz and Jose Hernandez against lefties.

STARTING PITCHING

PLAYER VORP

ODALIS PEREZ 49.7 JEFF WEAVER 37.8 JOSE LIMA 27.9

Making lemons into lemonade, Tracy looks likely to go with the short rotation, a nod to the overall worthlessness of Hideo Nomo, Elmer Dessens, and the rest of the team’s would-be fourth starters. Perez has been solid just about all season, and Weaver and Lima have fared well in their first seasons as Dodgers. The strategy here will be to crush St. Louis pitching early, get through five or six, then hope to turn it over to the strong Dodger bullpen.

BULLPEN

PLAYER VORP

ERIC GAGNE 28.1
DUANER SANCHEZ 16.6
YHENCY BRAZOBAN 11.7
GIOVANNI CARRARA 19.0
WILSON ALVAREZ 20.9
ELMER DESSENS 5.8
MIKE VENAFRO 0.7

Gagne is close to automatic. Much was made of L.A. trading away set-up man Guillermo Mota (as well as catcher Paul Lo Duca) as part of the team’s deadline shakeup.

But rookie flamethrower Yhency Brazoban has been a revelation. Throw in strong seasons by Sanchez and Carrara, and Alvarez shifting to the pen, and you have a strong, balanced group of arms that figures to be the Dodgers’ biggest edge of the series.

THE MATCHUP

The Cardinals have the upper hand on offense. The Dodgers get the edge in the bullpen. The starting rotations look close, as do the teams’ defenses.

Though their 12-game advantage in the standings and 4-2 head-to-head edge seem to strongly favor the Cardinals, don’t expect a rout. The Dodgers have shown a knack for pulling off the improbable, and voodoo aside, they can flat out play. We’ll say Cards in four, but this could easily go the limit.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.