Cards Sluggers Loom Large in NLCS

For the National League Championship Series to be anything but a disappointment, this year’s dominant club, the St. Louis Cardinals, had to be here. The Cardinals field the majors’ most impressive trio of superstars, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds, and won a major-league best 105 games this season.On the other side of the field, an Astros club with a string of grizzled veterans is trying to win the big one before riding into the sunset, led by a manager who was pulled off the scrapheap to take over at mid season.Despite the diverging storylines, the relative strengths of each club ensure the series won’t be a mismatch. The Astros were the only team to post a winning record (10-8) against the Cardinals in the regular season, so just who should be the underdog is open to debate.The Astros are hindered by a confusion of roles. Craig Biggio is no longer a true leadoff hitter. Jeff Bagwell, one of the best hitters of his generation, is no longer a heart-of-the-order terror – it is particularly troubling that he hit just .236/.341/.380 away from home.For most of the season, the 6-9 slots in the batting order were a dead-zone for Houston. They’ve received some help recently from Morgan Ensberg, who hit .368/.455/.474 in the NLDS after being benched for much of the last two season. Catcher Brad Ausmus, who posted a miserable .565 OPS against the Cards in 2004, also delivered an encouraging performance against the Braves last week. Still, the bottom of the order should provide some respite for a Cardinals staff that is challenged to get six innings from its starters. The pitches saved could mean an extra inning of durability.The Cardinals’ pitching ranked 10th in the NL in strikeouts this season, and the hitters at the top of the Astros lineup should frequently put the ball in play. This is a dangerous way for the Cards’ pitching staff to do business considering Houston’s propensity for extra base hits.Carlos Beltran arrived in time to play only six games against the Cards, but three of his five hits against them were triples. Lance Berkman batted .333/.449/.556 with three home runs. Bagwell hit .338/.418/.559 with another three home runs. Jeff Kent also contributed three round-trippers, hitting .366/.410/.606. Even Mike Lamb, who hit just .176 against the Redbirds, slugged .559 with four home runs in 34 at-bats.The Astros pounded Woddy Williams for 15 runs in 15 innings, and Jeff Suppan lost four of five decisions, albeit with a relatively low 4.11 ERA. Though the Cardinals will have four games at home, the Astros’ hitters should shine in this series.Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen exceeded their already massive numbers against Houston, but the rest of the team struggled. Unfortunately for the Astros, Brandon Backe is likely to start the first game, and Pete Munro may go in Game 2. Backe posted a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings against the Cards this season, but allowed four home runs in 47 at-bats, including two by Pujols.As with the rest of the National League, the Cardinals struggled against Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt (Edgar Renteria was an exception against the latter, batting .320/.357/.640 with two home runs). By the time Oswalt and Clemens get into the series, however, it might be too late for Houston.The Cardinals feature a deep, veteran bullpen distinguished by two lefty relievers, Ray King and Steve Kline. While the Astros don’t have a single true lefty in their lineup, they do have the switch-hitting Berkman, whose power is negated when he bats from the right. Tony La Russa will liberally deploy his southpaws to make sure that happens as often as possible in the late innings. Note that closer Jason Isringhausen struggled against Bagwell (5-for-14 with a home run and six walks) and Biggio (5-for-17, two doubles).The Astros bench lacks much in the way of real firepower, with Jason Lane and Orlando Palmeiro being used primarily as defensive replacements for the sluggish starting corner guys. Biggio is especially suspect in left field, and it will be important for the Astros to remove him with a big lead. Everett comes in if Garner pinch-hits for Vizcaino.The Cardinals bench features John Mabry and not much else. But Mabry batted just .255/.286/.340 against the Astros. La Russa isn’t prone to pinch-hitting for any of his regulars, and there is no reason he should, given the strength of the lineup.Astros closer Brad Lidge throws laser beams, but Garner showed in the NLDS that he lacked confidence in his middle relievers. Look for Jim Edmonds to feast in this series as the Astros lack anything in the way of a serious lefty deterrent.THE CALL: CARDINALS IN 6The Cardinals won 105 games, the Astros just 92.This shouldn’t be the end of the story, as the Cardinals lack a dominant, strikeout-oriented, big game starter and the Astros possess the probable Cy Young winner and a no. 2 man every bit as good.The problem is that Garner has his rotation coming into the NLCS backwards, leading to some obvious mismatches. Had the Astros been run more cleverly, they would have had a fighting chance.This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.

Cards Sluggers Loom Large in NLCS

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