Is the NFC South the best division in the NFL? Three teams have at least six wins, but each team also gets to take advantage of a cushy schedule that includes the mediocre NFC North, the injury-riddled AFC East, and two games with division whipping boy New Orleans. Two, maybe even three of these teams will ride that schedule into the postseason, but only one is truly a Super Bowl contender.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-2)

The Panthers were a chic Super Bowl pick until they were upset by both New Orleans and Miami early in the season. After six straight wins, though, the bandwagon is full again.

Based on their numbers so far this season, that really isn’t justified, because like the rest of the NFC South, the Panthers have racked up their wins against poor competition. But according to the Football Outsiders’ midseason projection system, things are about to change. A number of trends indicate that Carolina is going to take a huge step forward in the second half of the season, particularly on defense.

Carolina has been improving on both sides of the ball over the course of the season. The offense has done a better job converting third downs with the pass than with the run, a strong positive indicator. The defense has been strongest against the run, and run defense tends to carry over into the second half of the year more than pass defense.

What might keep Carolina from the Super Bowl? Two offensive weaknesses stand out. Wide receiver Steve Smith has been an MVP candidate, but any team that could cover him effectively would shut down the Carolina passing game. And though running back Stephen Davis looks impressive with 12 touchdowns, he’s actually been horrible this year, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. With 3.7 yards per carry, Carolina’s change-of-pace back, DeShaun Foster, isn’t much better.

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3)

Nobody can doubt the dazzling plays quarterback Michael Vick makes when he runs with the ball. But he is still struggling as a passer, a year-and-a-half into Atlanta’s experiment with a “West Coast” offense based on short timing routes. The Falcons have built a 6-3 record on the back of the league’s most effective running game and a good amount of luck, but can they reach the Super Bowl without improving their passing game?

Actually, all this debate about Vick obscures the real reason why the Falcons will not challenge for the NFC title: their defense. It was league-average in 2004, and expected to improve this season. Instead, it has declined against the pass and collapsed against the run. The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per carry, 26th in the league, and season lowlights include allowing two New Orleans backup running backs to run for 80 yards each and giving up a 100-yard game to Green Bay’s fifth-stringer.

The Falcons still have two games against Carolina and two against Tampa Bay, so they control their own destiny in the battle for the division title. But a team with a below-average defense doesn’t make the Super Bowl unless it is also the league’s best offense, and Atlanta only half-qualifies.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3)

The outlook for Tampa Bay looks much different now than it did a week ago. Before Sunday’s 36-35 victory over Washington, the Bucs looked set for a second half collapse. They faltered after a 4-0 start, losing to two of the league’s worst teams, the Jets and 49ers, and then getting crushed by division rival Carolina.

Quarterback Brian Griese blew out his left knee in Week 6, and his replacement Chris Simms had been horrible. Running back Cadillac Williams, practically handed the Rookie of the Year award by the media after beginning his career with three 100-yard games, missed two games with hamstring and foot injuries and managed a feeble two yards per carry after his return. Even the vaunted Tampa defense seemed to be weakening, giving up 300 yards to Miami and then somehow managing to go through a game against San Francisco without garnering a takeaway.

But Sunday’s win could be the turning point that puts the season back on the path to the playoffs. Simms seemingly matured overnight, passing for 279 yards and calmly leading the game-winning drive. The defense, though it gave up yards, intercepted Washington’s Mark Brunell twice and forced two fumbles.

The one part of Tampa’s early success that still has not recovered is the running game. The offensive line is mediocre and Williams is still clearly hobbled, gaining just 20 yards on 10 carries against Washington. The Bucs need to let his body mend and instead use his healthy backup, Michael Pittman.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-7)

When the Saints upset the Panthers in Week 1, the murmurs began: Was Hurricane Katrina the catalyst to finally bring this inconsistent and undisciplined team together and drive them to an unlikely division title?

By the time the Saints were demolished 52-3 by Green Bay four weeks later, the answer was clearly “no.” Instead, it has been a lost year for a franchise that couldn’t afford to have a lost year. Quarterback Aaron Brooks continues to stake his claim to mediocrity. Running back Deuce McAllister tore his ACL, costing him most of this year and probably part of 2006. Star receiver Joe Horn has struggled with injuries and will be 34 years old next year. The improved pass defense from the end of last season has disappeared, and the young players in the front seven are stagnating.

Owner Tom Benson wants to move his Saints to San Antonio, the league wants them to go to Los Angeles, and there is political pressure on both to leave the team in Louisiana. But no matter where they play next year, the Saints cannot allow the hurricane to be an excuse for keeping the core of the team together for another aimless year instead of dumping veterans and launching a rebuilding process.

Projected Order Of Finish: 1) Carolina 12-4, 2) Tampa Bay 10-6 (wild card), 3) Atlanta 9-7, 4) New Orleans 5-11

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com, who will report on the NFC East and NFC West in tomorrow’s New York Sun.