In baseball, one hot starting pitcher can get you to the World Series. In hockey, one hot goaltender can get you to the Stanley Cup Finals. In football, one superstar is not supposed to lead you to the Super Bowl, but someone forgot to tell Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith. To get to their first Super Bowl, the Seattle Seahawks must defeat the hottest team – and the hottest player – in the NFL.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (13-3)
(Sunday, 6:30 p.m., FOX)

WHEN CAROLINA HAS THE BALL

Smith was unstoppable all season, leading the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. But last week, Smith shifted into another gear of unstoppable, compiling 218 yards and two touchdowns against a Bears defense considered one of the all-time best.

This season, the Panthers threw to their no. 1 receiver more often than any team except Chicago – and threw to the second receiver less often than any other team in the NFL. Quarterback Jake Delhomme has a tendency to look for Smith without even considering other receivers. Sometimes, the Panthers simply throw Smith short passes and screens in the hope that he will single-handedly create a big play. Don’t expect this to change on Sunday, because Seattle’s defense led the NFL in passes by opponents to their no. 1 receivers.

Last week Chicago inexplicably tried to cover Smith man-to-man, sometimes without even leaving a safety deep to help when Smith beat the cornerback. Seattle cannot make this mistake, and when the Seahawks want to blitz, they must keep their pass rush to just five men. There should be deep safety help at all times, and if they can put two men on Smith to fortify the deep safety help, even better.

No matter how they cover him, Smith is going to get his yards and make some big plays. So the most important players for Carolina may be the other receivers: Keary Colbert, Drew Carter, and Ricky Proehl. Colbert is, to put it bluntly, awful. He hasn’t gained more than 32 yards in a game since Week 6, and DVOA ranks him 87th out of 89 receivers with at least 50 passes.

Though he is still starting, much of his role has been subsumed by Drew Carter, who played his first regular season game in December after nearly two years on the Panthers practice squad. The Panthers are excited about his speed, and he’s averaged more than 20 yards a reception.

Proehl is a veteran third-down specialist who hasn’t been very good on third downs this year. During the regular season, 31 of his 50 receptions came on third down, but Proehl only converted 15 of those into first downs. (By comparison, Smith converted 30 of his 39 third down passes.)

If secondary is Seattle’s clear weakness, and if the Seahawks spend all their energy trying to control Smith, Carter and Proehl will have the opportunity to make a big play – but they have to come through.

Starting running back DeShaun Foster broke his ankle against Chicago last week, so Nick Goings will be carrying the football against the Seahawks. Goings may not be as likely to explode for a long gain, but he is otherwise just as good as the inconsistent Foster. Since Foster had some big games in recent weeks, many experts expect the same from Goings. Don’t count on it.

The biggest difference between this year’s Seattle teams and the teams that failed to win in the playoffs of years past is run defense. In fact, according to our adjusted line yards metric, Seattle’s front seven is the league’s best when it comes to stopping the run. The Seahawks are also particularly strong at preventing conversions on third-and-short – a situation in which the Carolina offense happens to be weak.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

While Carolina’s offense is a one-man gang, Seattle’s offense is the opposite. The passing game features an accurate quarterback with multiple weapons at his disposal, while the running game consists of league MVP Shaun Alexander running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, with two all-Pros on the left side – tackle Walter Jones and guard Steve Hutchinson.

Smith can dominate a game, but Seattle is better than Carolina at all 10 other starting offensive positions. The Seahawks even have the edge when comparing second-string running backs or third and fourth receivers. NFL wide receivers caught 56% of intended passes, but the top four Seattle wideouts all caught at least 65% of intended passes.

As great as Seattle’s offense is, Carolina’s defense has been just as stellar in recent weeks. But the Panthers are also inconsistent. They dominated the Giants with the best single-game defensive performance by any team this year, but a week later let the impotent Bears score three touchdowns.

In the final week of the regular season and the first week of the playoffs, the Panthers limited All-Pro running backs Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn to a combined 66 yards on 22 carries. But just four weeks ago, the same defense was gashed by Dallas’s Julius Jones, who amassed 194 yards and two touchdowns.

Dallas gained most of those yards running behind the center and guards, and that’s where Seattle’s running game is at its best – up the middle. Alexander left last week’s game early with a concussion, but he’s “full go” for Sunday accord ing to coach Mike Holmgren.

Even if the Panthers stuff Alexander and put Seattle into third-and-long situations, they still may have trouble getting the defense off the field. The Panthers defense ranked sixth in DVOA on first downs, led the league on second downs, but ranked just 25th on stopping third downs. That’s a problem against the Seattle offense, which ranks fourth in converting third downs.

Carolina’s third-down problems correspond to their weaknesses in the secondary: nickel back and safety. The Panthers are a top five defense in DVOA against no. 1 and no. 2 receivers, but rank just 20th against third receivers and 17th against tight ends. Last week, Chicago’s biggest plays were made by little-known slot receiver Bernard Berrian. And Seattle’s Joe Jurevicius, when not forced into the starting lineup by injury, was the NFL’s top third receiver this year.

OUTLOOK

The Carolina defense is great, but the Seattle offense is better. The Seahawks can gain yardage in so many ways, and the Panthers will have a hard time stopping all of them unless the Seahawks implode like the Giants did. Otherwise, Carolina will have to outscore Seattle to punch a ticket to Detroit. It’s hard to imagine the Panthers doing that with a one-dimensional offense, but when that one dimension is Steve Smith, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

The Pick: Seahawks

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.