The slate of early games on this week’s NFL schedule is but an appetizer for football fans, with two late afternoon games as the main course. In one, San Diego and Denver battle for the AFC West title. In the other, Green Bay will try to show Philadelphia that its path to the Super Bowl is not entirely unobstructed.

DENVER AT SAN DIEGO

Three weeks into this season, San Diego’s record stood at 1-2 following a 23-13 loss to Denver. Drew Brees had completed just 54% of passes, and fans were calling for first-round pick Philip Rivers to take over as the starter.

Since then the Chargers are 7-1 and have scored more points than every team in football except Indianapolis. Over those eight games, Brees has completed 69% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just a single interception.

His favorite target, Antonio Gates, is one touchdown short of matching the single-season record for tight ends with 12. Calls for Rivers to replace Brees have now been replaced by agonized attempts to figure out how the team can possibly keep both.

Now the Chargers and Broncos meet again with the NFC West title on the line. If San Diego wins, they will have a two game lead on the Broncos with three of their four remaining games against below-.500 opponents. If the Broncos win, however, their season sweep over San Diego will give them the tiebreaker advantage should both teams finish the season with the same record.

Gates would seem to be the perfect weapon against a Denver defense that constantly left Oakland receivers open in the middle of the field last Sunday night. On the other hand, the Denver secondary hasn’t surrendered a touchdown to a tight end all season, and Atlanta’s Alge Crumpler is the only tight end with more than 35 yards receiving against them this year. Gates himself had a season-low 30 yards in the first meeting of these teams.

Instead, the Broncos need to worry about San Diego’s wide receivers, particularly Eric Parker. Denver has been near the top of the league defending passes against running backs as well as tight ends, but it has been below average in defending passes to wide receivers. Young, quick receivers like Oakland’s Jerry Porter, Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson, and Carolina’s Keary Colbert have had big games against the Broncos, and Parker fits that mold.

San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson and Denver’s Reuben Droughns will play a role in this game, but expect the importance of these running backs to be overstated going into the game. Tomlinson has been hobbled by groin and toe injuries and has seen last year’s 5.3 yards per carry average drop to a subpar 3.8 yards per carry.

Droughns, meanwhile, has racked up big numbers against bad defenses, but San Diego is excellent at stuffing the ground game. They allow a mere 3.8 yards per carry, fifth best in the league, and are among the best teams at preventing conversions on third-and-short.

San Diego, however, cannot stop the pass the way they can stop the run. They have no pass rush, a major problem against a strong offensive line like Denver’s and a quarterback who avoids sacks like Jake Plummer. Plummer has been sacked only seven times, third best in the league; San Diego only has 19 sacks, third worst in the league. Plummer threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns the first time these teams met, and he’ll need a similar game to match the San Diego scoring machine.

GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA

The Packers ride a six-game winning streak into a stadium that holds bitter memories. Last year, to complete a playoff upset of the favored Eagles, Green Bay needed only to stop Donovan McNabb from converting a pass on 4th-and-26.Instead,the defense folded, the Eagles came back to win the game, and the season was over.

The Packers have replayed that pass over and over in their sleep for months, so the multitude of similar passes flying through the air Sunday will seem familiar. No player has been hyped more this season than Eagles receiver Terrell Owens, and he should more than live up to it because the Green Bay secondary has been about as permeable as a beaded curtain.

According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, which break down every play of the season and compare each one to league average, the Packers rank 30th in pass defense this season, while the Eagles are second in pass offense. It will be surprising if the Packers force Donovan Mc-Nabb to throw an interception; the Packers have only seven of them this season, and McNabb has thrown only five.

The heart of the Green Bay defense is nose tackle Grady Jackson, but his return from injury six weeks ago had a much greater effect on the Packer run defense than on the pass defense. A number of players in the secondary are still nursing minor injuries, and Packer fans are used to regularly seeing both cornerback Al Harris and his rookie partner Ahmad Carroll burned by op posing receivers.

Despite Jackson’s return, the last four weeks have seen the Packers surrender their four highest yardage totals of the season to opposing no. 1 receivers: 170 yards to St. Louis’s Isaac Bruce, 141 yards to Minnesota’s Nate Burleson, 107 yards to Houston’s Andre Johnson, and 84 yards to Washington’s Laveranues Coles. The Packers need their safeties to help Harris cover Owens, which will leave Carroll helpless against Todd Pinkston or Freddie Mitchell.

But just as Philadelphia is well equipped to penetrate the weak Green Bay secondary, so are the Packers perfectly constructed to take advantage of Philadelphia’s weakness in stopping the run.

Pittsburgh handed the Eagles their only loss of the year with a constant barrage of 255-pound Jerome Bettis, chewing up yardage and the clock to keep Owens and McNabb off the field. Packers halfback Ahman Green is supposed to return from injury Sunday, but the Packers would be wise to split carries between Green and 247-pound backup Najeh Davenport, who fits the Bettis mold and had a career game last Monday night against the Rams.

Fans who appreciate strong offensive line play should spend the game watching Packers left guard Mike Wahle. A favorite Green Bay strategy is to run right with Wahle pulling to become the lead blocker. This play should work well against a Philadelphia front where the two players on that side, Javon Kearse and Corey Simon, are much better as pass rushers than as run stoppers.

Strong Packer rushing early will be an indication that Philadelphia is headed for its second loss. Packer quarterback Brett Favre may be the only NFL player with more press coverage than Owens, but if Green Bay has to put the ball in his hands to win this game, they are in trouble.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.