Chicago’s Struggles Alter AL Landscape

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Suddenly, the statement “The Yankees have options” doesn’t refer to trade possibilities or how many times they can send Bubba Crosby to Columbus before he can become a free agent. Rather, the options now open are new passages to October. When the White Sox were on pace to win 105 games for the season and still finish second in the AL Central, it seemed certain that the Yankees would have to beat the Red Sox to reach the post-season. They very well may yet do that, but with the White Sox ice cold and the Yankees hot, the wild card safety valve is again open.

Chicago’s tailspin began just before the All-Star break, when the Red Sox beat their hosiery counterparts in two of three contests. Beginning with that series, the White Sox have gone 4–11. Over that same span, the Yankees have gone 10–5 and a comeback kids-style Minnesota Twins team has gone 12–4. On July 6, the Sox held a wild-card lead of seven games.As of yesterday afternoon’s loss to the Twins, it’s gone.

Chicago’s failure has been systemic, though it was pitching that went down harder. Left-handed ace Mark Buehrle has been so bad for so long that the soundness of his arm must be questioned.With another disastrous start yesterday, Buehrle has been pasted in five consecutive starts, going 0–5 with a 12.15 ERA. During the July slide, Freddy Garcia’s July ERA is 5.76. Javier Vazquez’s is 6.48. Overall, the staff’s ERA during the slide has been 5.44.

Given hot hitting, a team might be able to survive that kind of pitching.The Sox haven’t had it. Though their power production has remained steady, with 27 home runs and a .455 slugging percentage over the last 15 games, the team’s onbase average is just .305. Key offenders include Paul Konerko, whose on-base average is just .281 (though he has hit four home runs in 57 at bats) and A.J. Pierzynski, who is batting .176 AVG/.208 OBA/.294 SLG. As a result, the Sox have scored just under four runs a game. When the pitching staff is allowing more than five runs a game at the same time, it takes an awful lot of luck to win.

The schedule is going to bring matters to a head in short order. The Yankees personally carved three games off the wild-card lead by sweeping the Sox at Yankee Stadium July 14–16. The White Sox will have a chance to get those back (or, alternatively, be buried for good and all) at Chicago August 8–10. Between now and then, the Sox will take on weak Orioles and Royals teams, the Blue Jays, and have a onegame make-up against the Angels. The Yankees have concurrent series against the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Assuming that each team holds serve against their weaker brethren, the wild card situation should still be tight by the time the two teams meet.

The wild card in the wild-card race is the Twins, who have outscored opponents 90–65 over the last 17 games.With Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, they may not stop. Having swept the White Sox, they follow with a tough series against the Tigers followed by the Rangers and the Royals before another set-to with the Tigers concurrent with the Yankees-White Sox series.

If that wasn’t turmoil enough, the White Sox and Twins meet six more times in August. The White Sox also play the Tigers six times that month.After the White Sox series, the Yankees play the tough Angels seven times (four at home, three away), then go to Boston for a five-game series with the Red Sox, including a doubleheader. Though all of the division rivals will meet again in September, there is a good chance that the American League wild card and Eastern division races could be decided within the next 30 days. This would leave September for victory laps and playoff tune-ups, or at lest relegate the playoff chances of a couple of hopefuls to the “miracle” category.

Monday’s non-waiver trading deadline comes just in time for the Yankees, who could use a fresh infusion of talent before entering this potentially decisive stretch of the season.With pitching and outfield help apparently in short supply, the Yankees could turn their attention to first base, where Andy Phillips’s unending slump is giving the Yankees the kind of production at a power position that would embarrass Alvaro Espinoza. Phillips’s strength is in his potential versatility — he played first, second, and third in the minors — not necessarily in his bat, at least not on an everyday basis. His difficulties in hitting left-handers this year (.176/.218/.230), unusual for a right-handed batter, are probably an of extended coincidence, but it further compromises him as an every day player.

One possible candidate was removed today when the Cleveland Indians sent Ben Broussard, long rumored to be available, to the Seattle Mariners for middling outfield prospect Shin-Soo Choo and a player to be named later.Broussard is not really the .322/.363/.523 hitter he has appeared to be this season, and he needs to be platooned.Still, as a lefty power hitter in Yankee Stadium with career .269/.333/.469 rates he would have been a vast improvement on the incumbent.

There has been a great deal of debate as to whether the Yankees need to add pitching or hitting, an outfielder or an infielder (reports today have the Yankees interested in Wilson Betemit of the Braves). The very existence of the debate suggests that, as well as they have played of late, they need to add something. Deducting runs on defense or adding them on offense will improve the club. The key issue isn’t so much where to add talent but when. In theory, the Yankees have until August 31 to make moves, but the schedule says that by then it may be too late.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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