For fans who like to see if they can outsmart the experts, predict ing what will happen in the NFL draft has become second only to predicting what will happen in the NCAA basketball tournament. But the difference between filling out a mock draft and filling out a tour nament bracket is that with the draft, the arguments continue for years. If you say the Oakland Raiders will pick LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, you’ll know whether you were right or wrong by early Saturday afternoon. But if you say the Raiders should pick Russell, it will be several years be fore you can say definitively that you were right.

What we offer below is, in effect two mock drafts: one showing which player we think each team should take, and one showing which player we think each team will take. The latter can be judged during the course of the day Satur day. The former will be judged dur ing several seasons of these play ers’ NFL careers.

1. OAKLAND

Should take: CALVIN JOHNSON
WR, Georgia Tech, 6’4,” 237 lbs.
Will take: JaMARCUS RUSSELL
QB, LSU

Johnson was simply the best player in college football last season, and he put up amazing numbers despite playing his entire three-year career with an at-best marginal quarterback in Reggie Ball. He also seems to lack the receivers’ typical prima donna gene, and with him in the fold, the Raiders would be free to deal malcon tent Randy Moss. But the likelier pick is Russell, a rocket-armed quarter back who appears perfect for Al Davis’s beloved vertical passing game.

2. DETROIT

Should take: JOE THOMAS
OT, Wisconsin, 6’6,” 313 lbs.
Will take: JOE THOMAS

The Lions have made no secret that they want to trade down, but if they can’t find a partner, they’ll probably decide to improve their offensive line rather than take a sexy pick like John son or Russell. Thomas is one of the safest picks on the board and should be a starter as a rookie.

3. CLEVELAND

Should take: ADRIAN PETERSON
RB, Oklahoma, 6’2,” 218 lbs.
Will take: BRADY QUINN
QB, Notre Dame

Peterson makes the most sense for a Cleveland team that has struggled to find a consistent ground game since the franchise made its return to the NFL in 1999. Where some see a run ning back who was injury prone, we see a Herschel Walker clone with lots of tread left on the tires. But the Browns may not be able to resist Quinn, an Ohio native who has openly campaigned to play for Cleveland Quinn’s struggles against quality op position should be a concern.

4. TAMPA BAY

Should take: GAINES ADAMS
DE, Clemson, 6’5,” 260 lbs.
Will take: CALVIN JOHNSON

Coach Jon Gruden has considered trading up to take Johnson and would be thrilled if Johnson is still available with the fourth pick. If Johnson is gone, Adams is a good fit because his speed as a pass rusher would make him the heir apparent to the 32-year old Simeon Rice.

5. ARIZONA

Should take: LARON LANDRY
S, LSU, 6’2,” 205 lbs.
Will take: ADRIAN PETERSON

Safeties can be a difference-maker on defense, and Landry is a playmak er in the Ed Reed mold. Some may view this pick as a reach, but we see Landry as the type of all-over-the field playmaker the Cardinals sorely need in the secondary. If Peterson falls to the Cardinals, they’ll grab him as the eventual replacement for Edgerrin James.

6. WASHINGTON

Should take: JAMAAL ANDERSON
DE, Arkansas, 6’6,” 279 lbs.
Will take: GAINES ADAMS

None of the available defensive linemen will make the kind of splash that Redskins owner Daniel Snyder likes, but defensive line is the position where the Redskins need the most help. Anderson is bigger than Adams and better against the run, but Adams is a better athlete.

7. MINNESOTA

Should take: JaMARCUS RUSSELL
QB, LSU, 6’6,” 263 lbs.
Will take: LARON LANDRY

Russell would be a great value for Minnesota if he falls this far. The Vikings moved up to select Tarvaris Jackson last year, but Russell possesses an altogether different talent level. If Russell’s gone, Minnesota will look to bolster its awful pass defense with Landry ahead of one of the available corners.

8. ATLANTA

Should take: AMOBI OKOYE
DT, Louisville, 6’2,” 287 lbs.
Will take: AMOBI OKOYE

New Falcons coach Bobby Petrino spent the last four years coaching Okoye at Louisville, and now he’ll make Okoye his first NFL draft pick. The 19-year-old Okoye, who was placed in ninth grade at age 12 when his family emigrated from Nigeria, will be the youngest player in the NFL.

9. MIAMI

Should take: BRADY QUINN
QB, Notre Dame, 6’3,” 226 lbs.
Will take: LEVI BROWN
OT, Penn State

The Dolphins have been making due with castoffs and veterans on the downside ever since Dan Marino retired. They took a bolder approach last year by trading for Daunte Culpepper, but the former Viking was never healthy and appears to have worn out his welcome. Quinn would be the first elite quarterback prospect on the Miami roster since no. 13. However, the Miami offensive line is also a mess, and Brown could start immediately.

10. HOUSTON

Should take: LEVI BROWN
OT, Penn State, 6’4,” 328 lbs.
Will take: LEON HALL
CB, Michigan

Last year the Texans were widely criticized for drafting defensive end Mario Williams when they could have selected Reggie Bush or Vince Young. This year they’ve traded for quarterback Matt Schaub, and if they don’t draft an offensive lineman to protect him, they’ll be widely criticized again.

11. SAN FRANCISCO

Should take: PATRICK WILLIS
LB, Mississippi, 6’1,” 240 lbs.
Will take: ADAM CARRIKER
DE, Nebraska

Willis was an incredibly productive linebacker in four years at Ole Miss and turned heads with a sub 4.4 second 40-yard dash at his pro day workout. He’s the type of playmaker the improving Niners need to give their defense some bite. The same could be said of Carricker, a huge prospect who could play either end or tackle.

12. BUFFALO

Should take: LEON HALL
CB, Michigan, 5’11,” 193 lbs.
Will take: PATRICK WILLIS

Buffalo needs a replacement for Nate Clements, the cornerback who left Buffalo to sign a free-agent contract with the San Francisco 49ers. But if Willis is available, general manager Marv Levy may decide that having the league’s best rookie linebacker would make a more immediate impact this season.

13. ST. LOUIS

Should take: ALAN BRANCH
DT, Michigan, 6’6,” 331 lbs.
Will take: ALAN BRANCH

Branch his been reported as sliding on many draft boards because he can disappear on the field at times. But he’s huge, mobile, and quick and also plays with a mean streak that was evident throughout Michigan’s 2006 season. He’d be a huge pickup for a St. Louis defense that has been pushed around for years.

14. CAROLINA

Should take: ADAM CARRIKER
DE, Nebraska, 6’6,” 292 lbs.
Will take: REGGIE NELSON
S, Florida

If Carolina can land Carriker, coach John Fox will be ecstatic. Carriker is versatile and strong against the run, and pairing him with Julius Peppers would give the Panthers an excellent defensive end combination. If Carriker is gone, Nelson is a good safety who would start immediately in the Carolina secondary.

15. PITTSBURGH

Should take: DARRELLE REVIS
CB, Pittsburgh, 6’0,” 197 lbs.
Will take: JAMAAL ANDERSON

The Steelers can address a glaring need and keep the hometown fans happy by selecting Revis, a physical corner who could start right away for a Pittsburgh secondary that was burned with regularity last season.

16. GREEN BAY

Should take: MARSHAWN LYNCH
RB, California, 5’11,” 217 lbs.
Will take: MARSHAWN LYNCH

The Packers are in desperate need of help at running back, and Lynch is the best running back Green Bay could get, as Peterson will be long gone. Lynch to Green Bay is a pick that seems so perfect that it almost certainly won’t happen.

17. JACKSONVILLE

Should take: REGGIE NELSON
S, Florida, 6’0,” 193 lbs.
Will take: JARVIS MOSS
DE, Florida

The Jaguars don’t need to look far to fill the hole in their secondary. Nelson was a star at Florida and is versatile enough that he could play corner or safety in the NFL. The Jags could also opt for his Florida teammate, Moss, who would provide a nice bookend for Reggie Hayward.

18. CINCINNATI

Should take: GREG OLSEN
TE, Miami (FLA.), 6’4,” 252 lbs.
Will take: DARRELLE REVIS

Adding Olsen, whose blistering 40-yard dash time at the NFL’s scouting combine sent him rocketing up draft boards, would provide yet another threat for Carson Palmer. However, the Bengals will probably decide that a defensive player like Revis fills a more immediate need.

19. TENNESSEE

Should take: ROBERT MEACHEM
WR, Tennessee, 6’3,” 211 lbs.
Will take: ROBERT MEACHEM

Tennessee needs a receiver, and we like Meachem as the second passcatcher off the board after Johnson. He’s more polished than Ted Ginn Jr. and is coming off a monster junior season that included 71 catches and 11 touchdowns.

20. NY GIANTS

Should take: PAUL POSLUSZNY
LB, Penn State, 6’1,” 237 lbs.
Will take: JON BEASON
LB, Miami

Jerry Reese could go in several different directions with his first pick as Giants general manager, but outside linebacker is the Giants’ most glaring need. Posluszny and Beason are both versatile and athletic. Beason is better in pass coverage, but Posluszny is a superior blitzer, which might make him a slightly better fit with new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

21. DENVER

Should take: JARVIS MOSS
DE, Florida, 6’6,” 251 lbs.
Will take: TED GINN JR.
WR, Ohio State

A lack of a consistent pass rush probably kept the Broncos out of the playoffs last season, so we suggest Moss, an end rusher in the mold of former Gator Jevon Kearse. Denver also needs to get younger at receiver, as Rod Smith appears done. Ohio State’s Ted Ginn is the next-best option there.

22. DALLAS

Should take: TED GINN JR.
WR, Ohio State, 6’0,” 180 lbs.
Will take: DWAYNE BOWE
WR, LSU

Dallas will open the season with a pair of 33-year-olds, Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn, starting at wide receiver. The Cowboys need to add some young talent to their receiving corps, and both Ginn and Bowe qualify. If the foot injury he suffered in Ohio State’s BCS National Championship Game loss to Florida is fully healed, Ginn would be the better choice because of his contributions on special teams.

23. KANSAS CITY

Should take: DWAYNE BOWE
WR, LSU, 6’2,” 217 lbs.
Will take: JOE STALEY
OT, Central Michigan

Quick: Who was the last great Kansas City wide receiver? Despite being known for offense, the Chiefs have made due with no-names at receiver for years. Bowe is a huge target who knows how to run routes and not just burn lesser college corners with speed. Will Shields’s sudden retirement makes the offensive line another priority, and Staley is an intriguing possibility for the Chiefs.

24. NEW ENGLAND

Should take: LAWRENCE TIMMONS
LB, Florida State, 6’3,” 232 lbs.
Will take: PAUL POSLUSZNY

Patriots coach Bill Belichick entered this off-season knowing that improving at linebacker was his top priority. He already added one in freeagent Adalius Thomas, but he’d like to add another in the draft. Timmons was the fastest linebacker in college football last year.

25. NY JETS

Should take: CHRIS HOUSTON
CB, Arkansas, 5’11,” 185 lbs.
Will take: GREG OLSEN

Houston made a name for himself by blanketing USC’s Dwayne Jarrett in an early-season game last year, and he looks as if he could develop into a true shutdown corner. The Jets could also target the latest tight end prospect out of Miami, Olsen, who could become a starter right away.

26. PHILADELPHIA

Should take: JON BEASON
LB, Miami (Fla.), 6’0,” 236 lbs.
Will take: LAWRENCE TIMMONS

The Eagles acquired linebacker Takeo Spikes this off-season, but right now he’s slated to play on the outside. Drafting either Beason or Timmons would give the Eagles more flexibility at outside linebacker and allow Spikes to play on the inside, where he’s best suited.

27. NEW ORLEANS

Should take: JUSTIN HARRELL
DT, Tennessee, 6’4,” 303 lbs.
Will take: JUSTIN HARRELL

Until they signed free agent Jason David from the Colts, the Saints looked as if they would draft the best cornerback available. But the addition of David gives the Saints more flexibility, and they can improve the passrush with Harrell, a Tennessee standout whose senior season was cut short by injury.

28. NEW ENGLAND

Should take: MICHAEL GRIFFIN
S, Texas, 6’0,” 195 lbs.
Will take: MICHAEL GRIFFIN

Griffin is good against the pass and better against the run, and he can play both strong and free safety. He’ll also make an instant impact on special teams, and his eight blocked kicks are the second most in NCAA Division IA history.

29. BALTIMORE

Should take: JOE STALEY
OT, Central Michigan, 6’5,” 302 lbs.
Will take: JUSTIN BLALOCK
OT, Texas

The Ravens’ offensive line is in flux. Edwin Mulitalo was released, Tony Pashos left as a free agent, and Jonathan Ogden has been mulling retirement. No matter how the board shakes out, Baltimore can get help at this spot with either Staley or Blalock.

30. SAN DIEGO
Should take: ANTHONY SPENCER
DE, Purdue, 6’3,” 266 lbs.
Will take: BRANDON MERIWEATHER
S, Miami

The Chargers have the luxury of drafting for depth because they don’t have many holes on their roster. Spencer is a phenomenal athlete who would fit in nicely with San Diego’s 3–4 defense, but Meriweather is probably more ready to contribute to an NFL team as a rookie.

31. CHICAGO

Should take: BEN GRUBBS
OG, Auburn, 6’3,” 314 lbs.
Will take: BEN GRUBBS

The Super Bowl should have made it obvious to everyone in the Chicago organization that upgrading the offense has to be the no. 1 priority in the draft. They’ll start with Grubbs, a roadgrader who helped pave the way for the Auburn rushing attack.

32. INDIANAPOLIS

Should take: AARON ROSS
CB, Texas, 6’1,” 192 lbs.
Will take: AARON ROSS

It isn’t often that the defending Super Bowl champion has such glaring needs, but the Colts do: They have to beef up their run defense, and they’ve lost both of last year’s starting cornerbacks to free agency. The Colts will take the best defensive player on the board when their pick comes up, and in our mock draft that’s the big and physical Ross.

Messrs. Smith and Levine are writers for FootballOutsiders.com.