In case you’re a casual fan and are wondering if all the hype surrounding this Sunday’s New England Patriots-Indianapolis Colts game is justified, I’ll give you the short form: yes. It may not be the only pro football game you need to watch this season, but it’s the most important one.

PATRIOTS (8–0) at COLTS (7–0)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m., CBS

There’s no doubt whatsoever that these are the two best teams in the NFL and that the winner will be the odds-on favorite to go all the way. Numerous midseason games over the last couple of decades have fit into this category, but never has there been a game between two teams so completely dominant.

The Patriots’s 48–27 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on October 14 and the Colts’s 29–7 win over Jacksonville on October 22 have pretty much demonstrated that the NFC isn’t capable of coming up with a team that’s in the same league with these two. The only important question seems to be: Who’s going to get the home field advantage when they play each other for the AFC Championship? Sunday’s game will probably decide that and thus pave a clear path to an easy Super Bowl win.

Upon reflection, maybe this is the only pro football game you need to watch all year. As I see it, a comparison of the relevant stats would look like the chart at right.

Many other statistics can be thrown into the mix. Rushing, for instance: The Colts have a decent running game, averaging 4.4 yards a carry, while New England has a mediocre one, averaging 4.2. On defense, the Colts allow about the league average, close to 4.1, while the Patriots are a shade worse, 4.2. None of that really makes much difference: This game, like sea battles between fleets in World War II, will be settled in the air. New England has an edge in pass rushing, 22 sacks to 12, but the Colts have an edge in pass blocking, having allowed just five sacks to the Pats’ eight, as well in allowing knockdowns, two to six.

If all of this seems pretty much even on paper, that’s the way it should play on the field as well. As we go to press, the Patriots are five-point favorites, even though they’re playing the game at Indianapolis and though most football experts, such as Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman and Peter King, are picking New England. This is the first time since Tony Dungy became head coach of the Colts back in 2002 that Indianapolis has been an underdog on its own home field.

Why this is the case isn’t readily apparent. The Colts appear to have a slightly superior defense and a comparable offense — that is, comparable if you discount the number of times the Patriots have thrown long passes for touchdowns that had nothing to do with winning the game. The Colts average about 40 fewer yards on offense per game than the Pats, but does anyone think that Peyton Manning wouldn’t have been capable of making up that difference if it was important to his team?

Moreover, New England’s numbers have been posted against a schedule inferior to the one that Indianapolis has played. This isn’t a knock on the Patriots, who well may be the best team in the league. Against their two toughest opponents, the Cowboys and Redskins, they’ve been otherworldly, outscoring them by a combined 100–34. The point is that if you reverse their schedules and if the Colts were so inclined to run up the score, their stats could easily be superior to that of the Patriots.

The reason why the Patriots are such heavy favorites (and five points is heavy in a game like this, particularly for a visiting team), is that coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have, after all, won three Super Bowls, and this season Belichick seems determined to establish a bully image out of revenge for those who dared to notice his cheating earlier this season against the Jets. By all rights, Belichick should have been investigated, exposed, and probably suspended. (Instead, the good ol’ boy system that pervades the NFL — and let’s remember that unlike other major sports, in the NFL successful head coaches are part of the system, not subservient to it — let him off with a light slap on the wrist.) Many in the press, to their credit, did not let Belichick off so lightly and by God, he has shown them up, and anyone else naïve enough to think sportsmanship and pride still matters in the NFL, by humiliating his opponents.

It will be interesting to see if Belichick — or Bully-chick, as they’re starting to call him on radio talk shows — gets the opportunity to do this to the Colts on Sunday. After all, if the point of running up the score is to make a statement, this is the team he’d most want to make a statement to. But there’s no reason for the Colts to feel intimidated. Dungy has no doubt drilled it into his team’s collective head that Indianapolis has now beaten New England in their last three meetings — two of them on the Pats’ home field.

The big difference, of course, is that New England now has an incredible corps of wide receivers in Randy Moss, Donté Stallworth, and Wes Welker. The Colts cannot stop them, but they can contain them. The Colts have great receivers, too, even if Marvin Harrison isn’t at full speed. Indianapolis has an offensive line that has allowed just one sack every 47.8 passing plays this year, and the man they protect, Manning, is, until proven otherwise, still the best quarterback in pro football.

Barra’s Pick: Colts 38–34