PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5) AT DENVER BRONCOS (13-3)
(Sunday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

What if … the Indianapolis Colts didn’t choke last week? What if … the Pittsburgh Steelers really are that good? They might actually be, you know. They’re an odd looking team with a running back, Jerome Bettis, built like a nose tackle; a wide receiving corps that weighs in at an average of less than 200 pounds a man; a quarterback who weighs more than all but two of the team’s linebackers; and a 5-foot-10-inch safety, Troy Polamalu, who has more hair on the outside of his helmet than the rest of the defense has inside theirs. They’re not pretty, but they might be the best team in football.

Of course, so might the Denver Broncos. There isn’t much to choose between the two teams. The Broncos outscored the Steelers during the regular season by six points (395 to 389), and both teams gave up exactly 258 points. The Broncos’ stats were slightly inflated by the large home field advantage they enjoy by working out and playing at the high altitude in Denver. You wouldn’t expect the Steelers to be able to keep up with the Broncos, who are 9-0 at home after their defeat of the New England Patriots last weekend. Then again, you also wouldn’t have expected the Steelers to beat Indianapolis on the Colts’ home field, and the Colts are a better team than the Broncos.

Pittsburgh runs the ball well, gaining four yards a shot; Denver runs it better with 4.7. Denver stops the run well, giving up exactly four a try; Pittsburgh stops it better, giving up just 3.4. Jump ball.

Both teams can stop the pass. The Broncos allowed just 6.25 yards a throw, intercepted 20 passes, and recorded 28 sacks. The Steelers allowed only 6.34 yards per throw, picked off 14 passes, and sacked opposing quarterbacks 47 times. It’s close, but the Steelers get the edge because of all those sacks.

It’s at quarterback where we finally see a possible advantage. Jake Plummer is good. Playing behind a smallish but superbly athletic offensive line that allowed just 22 sacks, Plummer averaged 7.4 yards per pass with 18 touchdowns against only seven interceptions.

However, good is just about all one can say for Plummer, despite having in Mike Shanahan the best offensive coach in the league. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, is on the verge of greatness. He led the NFL’s passers in the most important offensive stat, yards per throw, with 8.9 – higher even than Peyton Manning (8.3). His 17 touchdown passes don’t look overly impressive, but due to injuries he threw only 268 times (Plummer had one more touchdown pass in 188 more throws). Roethlisberger’s nine interceptions are high, but he has a quality often found in great veteran quarterbacks: He isn’t spooked by interceptions. He’ll throw one and then come right back on the next series to throw the same pass in the same place until he gets it right. Eventually, he gets it right.

Neither team likes to throw more than necessary. Both Shanahan and Steelers coach Bill Cowher subscribe to the “Throw early, run late” theory – you saw it in action last Saturday, when the Steelers gained 172 of their 197 yards passing in the first half against Indianapolis. The problem in this case is that with such strong defenses, it’s unlikely either team is going to establish a big lead early enough to start thinking about running the clock out before the last couple of minutes.

If one offense does, it’s likely to be Pittsburgh’s. Shanahan is a brilliant coach and the true heir to the Bill Walsh tradition, but his quarterback has never really emerged as the star he was projected to be a decade ago. Plummer is just 2-3 in postseason play, with a yards per attempt average of 6.7 and more interceptions than touchdown passes.

Roethlisberger, in contrast, is now 3-1 in the postseason – that’s a lot of playoff experience for a 24-year old, by the way – with just one bad playoff game. That was against New England in last year’s AFC title game, and he played it with a bad thumb, which resulted in three interceptions (though he also had two touchdown passes.) Still, Big Ben has more touchdown passes than pickoffs in the postseason, eight to six, and has a remarkable 8.37 YPA for those four games. He’s not likely to be intimidated by anything Denver throws at him Sunday.

Just what is Denver likely to throw at him? And what will the Steelers likely counter with? The Broncos excel in man-to-man coverage, and with All-Pro Champ Bailey at the corner, they can usually put a clamp on the other team’s no. 1 receiver. For the Steelers, that’s Hines Ward, who caught 69 passes and had more touchdowns, 11, than the rest of his teammates combined. That will be a match up worth keeping an eye on. But Roethlisberger isn’t likely to force the ball to Ward; as he showed with two big first quarter completions to tight end Heath Miller in the Colts game, he’s not afraid to mix things up.

On defense, the Steelers aren’t likely to have as much luck with the blitz as they had against Manning and the Colts, if only because the Broncos’ front five is less likely to be rattled. Denver practices “zone-blocking,” which, translated into English, means you don’t stray from your spot chasing a designated defender, but instead hit the guy who’s in your area. But Denver’s offensive line, though pound-for-pound one of the best, is going to have trouble with the huge Pittsburgh defensive line, particularly Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith in the middle. This is where the Broncos don’t match up well with the Steelers, and it’s likely to be the hinge on which the game will turn.

This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but the team that scores first is going to have a big advantage. And if that’s the Steelers, then the Broncos are going to spend most of their afternoon looking like a jungle creature on the Discover Channel trying to break out of the grip of an anaconda.

Even if they do, they’ll have to keep Roethlisberger from scoring again. What the Denver Broncos are going to find is that the Pittsburgh Steelers really are that good.

The Pick: Steelers

Mr. Barra is the author, most recently, of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”