Accompanied by something less than a blaze of publicity, the Confederations Cup opens up in Germany tomorrow. A problem tournament this, ever since it was first played in 1992. The Europeans in particular have never liked it, considering it an unnecessary set of games forced on them by FIFA and jammed into an already overcrowded calendar.

The tournament features the host team, Germany; the World Cup holder, Brazil, and the current champions from FIFA’s six worldwide confederations: Greece (Europe), Tunisia (Africa), Australia (Oceania), Japan (Asia), Mexico (North and Central America and the Caribbean), and – because Brazil is already represented – the South American runner-up, Argentina.

The grandly dubbed Festival of Champions has some extra significance this year. It is serving as a dry run for next year’s World Cup in Germany – a useful exercise both for the World Cup organizers and for coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s Germany squad. It has long been recognized that automatic qualification as the World Cup host team is a double-edged sword, for the lack of tough qualifying games gives the team’s preparation a rather academic air. Here, then, is a chance for Klinsmann’s players to test themselves against lesser opponents – Tunisia and Australia – who will be going all out to impress, and against a world power, Argentina. If the Germans advance from that group, they could even meet up with Brazil.

But things are not quite as appetizing as they sound. Argentina is sending a team lacking most of its top players, and Brazil will be without Cafu, Roberto Carlos, and Ronaldo. Germany, meanwhile, has lost two key players – midfielder Dietmar Hamann and forward Miroslav Klose – to injury. What’s more, Germany’s defense needs testing. Klinsmann has selected an inexperienced back four of Andreas Hinkel, Robert Huth, Per Mertesacker, and Thomas Hitzlsperger – all of whom are under 23.

That decision was greeted with something approaching scorn by Franz Beckenbauer: “It is all very well to give young players a chance, but you cannot use all of them. The World Cup is for men, it’s not a youth world championship.”

Klinsmann, who has maintained a low profile since his surprise appointment to the high-profile job last year, declined to cross swords with Beckenbauer and replied equably: “We have a young team and players make mistakes. But no team in the world is perfect.”

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With just under a year to go before the World Cup kicks off, only six of the 32 nations that will take part are so far known, including Germany, with its automatic entry as the host. Asia has completed its qualifying games ahead of everyone else, and will send Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia. Argentina, sitting on top of the 10-nation South American group, has already secured its place in Germany, even though it still has three games to play.

To that group of six can be added three or four nations that, while they may not have mathematically clinched, are almost certain to qualify: Mexico, the United States, Costa Rica, and Brazil – the only nation to have been present at every one of the 17 World Cups staged since 1930.

No surprises so far. The potential for an unlikely qualifier is always greatest in Europe, which is allocated 14 berths. At the moment, 51 nations are competing for those slots, but realistically about half of them are already without hope. We shall not be seeing the likes of Luxemburg (which has lost all eight of its games so far), or Kazakhstan and San Marino (both 0-7), or Malta, Cyprus, and the Faroe Islands, which have managed just one tie each.

There are eight European groups (five six-team and three seven-team groups); the group winners qualify, along with the two best second-place teams. The other six runners-up are drawn in pairs, with each pair playing a two-game, home-and-home series to decide who goes to Germany.

With two-thirds of the games played, the groups are playing out pretty much as one would expect. Possibly Group 4 could yield an unexpected qualifier – at the moment, the Republic of Ireland leads the group with 13 points, ahead of Switzerland (12 pts) and Israel (11 pts). Down in fourth place lies France with 10 points – but with a game in hand. The advantage lies with the Swiss, who also have a game in hand. The group winner will probably be decided in the last game, with the Swiss at home to France on October 8.

The other group leaders are the Netherlands in Group 1, Ukraine (Group 2), Portugal (Group 3), Italy (Group 5), and Croatia (Group 8). Poland leads Group 6, but unbeaten England, with a game in hand, is the likely winner here. In Group 7 Serbia and Montenegro, which is one country, could cause an upset – it is only one point behind first-place Spain with a game in hand.

Then there is Greece. The country that erupted in joy when it won last year’s European championship, its first ever major title, may be heading for a big downer. It lies in third place in Group 2, behind Ukraine and Turkey.

In Africa, 30 nations are competing in five six-team groups. Only the group winners will qualify. Each team has three games left to play, and so far nothing is decided.

In South America, after Argentina and Brazil in the standings, comes a block of four teams – Ecuador, Paraguay, Colombia, and Chile; the top two of this group will qualify directly, while the overall fifth-place finisher will play off against the winner of the Oceania group – yet to be decided, but it will be the mother of all upsets if Australia does not beat the Solomon Islands in Oceania’s final. Hovering on the brink of elimination is Uruguay – a sad thought, really, for Uruguay has a proud history in soccer, and is a two time former winner (in 1930 and 1950) of the World Cup.

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Surprise qualifiers – Switzerland, Togo, and Serbia and Montenegro are possibilities – are one thing, but a surprise winner of the World Cup is impossible to imagine. Surely it will come down to the usual suspects: Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Italy, France, and England – all former winners – plus those perennial not-quite teams like the Netherlands and Spain.

The recent Argentina-Brazil qualifier – won 3-1 by Argentina – produced such consistently high-level soccer that Brazil’s coach Carlos Alberto Parreira declared, “These are the two best teams in world soccer.”

But history and geography have something to say about that. Nine World Cups have been played in Europe, and eight of them have been won by European teams. The only exception was when Brazil, led by the 17-year-old Pele, won in Sweden in 1958.

Which should make Germany, England, and Italy the favorites. But there is a curiosity to be considered, one that surely ought to be significant when weighing the importance of geography: Virtually all of Argentina’s and Brazil’s top players now play and live in Europe.