Cowboys Are Playing for NFC’s Respect Sunday

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When discussing this Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys, New England defensive back Ellis Hobbs has it right: “I don’t think of it as a measuring stick. We think of it as a big game because it’s the next game.” That’s the way any sixth game of the regular season should be looked at. Since 2000, 39 teams have gone through five weeks with a winning record without making the playoffs, while 11 teams with losing records at that point in the season did play in the postseason.

PATRIOTS (5–0) at DALLAS (5–0)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m., CBS

On the other hand, as Tom Brady phrased it, “We’re 5–0. You can’t do much better than that.”

Not much. The excitement generated by Sunday’s Patriots-Cowboys tilt at Texas Stadium is due to the fact that it’s the first game played during this year’s regular season that looks like a bona fide Super Bowl preview. But we shouldn’t be too hasty in deciding that the Patriots will represent the AFC in the big game. The Indianapolis Colts are, after all, the defending league champions, they have dominated the Patriots over the last couple of seasons, and they also go into Week 6 with the same 5–0 record that you can’t do much better than. For that matter, the Pittsburgh Steelers, though they have been a tad sluggish on offense, are 4–1 and have allowed a league low 9.4 points per game on defense. Until further notice, those are the three best teams in the AFC and, until proven otherwise, in the entire NFL.

And that’s what the Dallas Cowboys are out to do Sunday: prove otherwise. The feverish anticipation surrounding this game is not because it’s a likely match of the league’s two best teams — that would be New England and Indianapolis. The real reason the Pats-Cowboys will be the highest rated regular season game so far this year is that everyone wants to know if it will be worth sticking around this February for the final game.

Or, stated another way, if the Cowboys get whupped badly on Sunday, there isn’t much chance that the NFC will produce a team worthy of facing the AFC winner in the Super Bowl. You may as well schedule that trip to the Bahamas right after the AFC championship game.

So how does Patriots-Cowboys stack up? Here are the relevant stats as I see them:

In most of the important stats, the similarities are striking; considering that the Cowboys have played a slightly tougher schedule, you might want to call it dead even. Both teams run the ball and defend against it much better than the league average of four yards, but as with all big games in the NFL, this one won’t be settled on the ground — though the team with the lead in the fourth quarter is likely to have the most rushing opportunities and thus the most rushing yardage. And that team will probably be New England.

This game will be decided in the air, and if the above chart shows a clear edge in anything, it’s pass efficiency for the Patriots. Tom Brady has a substantial edge over the hugely talented Tony Romo in experience, and it shows up in the interceptions column. Brady has always been a high-percentage, low-risk passer, mostly because he could afford to be. The Patriots defense almost always keeps the game close, so he isn’t forced to take many chances, and when he does, he gets excellent pass protection. This season Brady has been sacked just three times, tying with Peyton Manning for the league’s lowest total.

The Cowboys offensive line, regarded by most as a weak spot before the season, has come together quite well in its pass-blocking schemes and has only allowed Romo to be sacked six times. Not much of a difference, really, but the edge goes to the Patriots.

And Romo, who has been picked off eight times this year, is a far better bet to put a ball up for grabs than Brady, who has thrown just two interceptions.

Brady is a drop-back passer, while Romo’s strength is the rollout. Against a strong Patriots pass rush he will probably do more rolling out than usual, which will limit his opportunities to get the ball downfield to his gamebreaker, Terrell Owens (who hasn’t been all that great this year with just 21 catches and three TDs). Given his usual protection in the pocket, Brady has all sorts of options, including waiting for Randy Moss (34 catches, seven TDs) to break loose downfield. The Cowboys have a superb secondary, but no secondary is good enough to cover Moss and the rest of the New England receivers if Brady has time to throw.

Head coach Wade Phillips has done a remarkable job in pulling the Cowboys together a season after Bill Parcells’s retirement looked to unravel the franchise. The Cowboys right now are better than they ever were at any time under Parcells. But what they haven’t yet demonstrated is that they can stay on the field with a first-rate AFC team. The odds say the Patriots are a five-point favorite despite the Cowboys’ presumed home field advantage. That sounds about right. This looks very much like a game that will be tight and tense until a second half interception and a long TD pass blows it open.

Barra’s Pick: Patriots 31–20

Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”


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