Curry Is on a Tremendous Streak, but How Long Will It Last?

21. 20. 24. 24. 24. 27. 26.Count ‘em up, and that’s seven 20-point games in a row for the Knicks’ Eddy Curry, capped by Monday’s 26-point, 15-rebound domination in a win over Memphis. It’s the longest such streak by a Knick in four years, since Allan Houston did it in 2002.That wasn’t the only milestone he hit Monday. It was also the eighth straight game he made more than half his shots from the field, and better yet, the seventh straight in which he managed to stay on the court for at least 30 minutes.What makes it even more shocking is that it comes after a 10-game stretch where it appeared Curry’s lethargy and indifference had reached new heights. In that stanza, he didn’t eclipse 15 points once, only had one double-figure rebound game, and submitted shooting nights of 2-for-9, 3-for-10, and 2-for-11.It’s made a difference on the scoreboard too, once you look a little closer. Cynics will point out the Knicks are only 3–4 during this stretch, but keep in mind that a 3–4 stretch looks pretty good when your overall record is 7–13.Moreover, the Knicks have done this despite a fairly difficult slate. They played four of seven on the road, including a trio against Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland. They were in every game, and blew Boston off its home floor. The results don’t necessarily show it yet, but the Knicks are a heck of a lot better with this Curry than the old one.So if he keeps it up, there’s hope yet for a Knicks ship that already looks to be taking on water. Thus, the big question today is whether Curry’s explosion is merely a hot streak or the beginning of something more profound.Yes, it’s only seven games, but the difference between Curry’s recent stretch and what he did before it is staggering. Consider that Curry’s five highest-scoring games of the season have been the past five games, and that he matched or exceeded his season-high in four of them (in fact, he’d be five for five had he not fouled out on Monday).Consider also that two of his three best rebounding games this year were the past two, or that more than half his free-throw attempts on the season have come in the past seven games, or that even his paltry blocks and steals numbers have picked up slightly.But the prologue to this story is how badly Curry started the season, something our own Martin Johnson outlined recently. In fact, after 13 games Curry’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER, my perminute rating of a player’s statistical effectiveness) stood at 9.38, which is roughly what you might expect from a CBA call-up, not a guy making $10 million a year that the Knicks mortgaged much of their future to acquire.In the seven games since, however, his rating has zoomed up to 20.59, which isn’t quite Yao Ming territory but puts him solidly among the game’s elite centers. His other numbers have shown similar improvements, as the chart shows.Let me go over a few other items in that chart. The scoring improvement is obvious: On a per-40 minute basis, Curry pumped in a whopping 25.5 points in the past seven contests compared to 17.5 to start the season.Ready for the punch line? His shot attempts have hardly budged. Curry averaged 13.7 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes in the first 13 games, and 15.5 in the past seven. That’s an improvement, yes, but the main difference hasn’t been the number of shots, but rather the efficiency with which Curry converts them.You’ll note that his field-goal percentage has ballooned from 50.0% to 60.4%, the biggest sign of the improved efficiency, but there are others. For instance, his rate of free-throw attempts has gone through the roof. Curry averaged 0.48 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt in the first 13 games, an unspectacular rate for a center and well below his career norms.In the past seven, though, he’s upped that to 0.82 — meaning he gets nearly one foul shot for every field-goal try. That astounding ratio has beefed up his scoring numbers considerably, even with his miserable 55.6% free-throw mark (this, in fact, is the only category where he’s been worse in the past seven games than in the first 13).But the last two numbers have to be the most heartening for Knicks fans, because they get to the core of what has held Curry back his entire career — mistakes. For all his dominance on the low blocks, Curry has been one of the most mistake-prone players in the league. Whether it’s botching a defensive assignment, trampling a defender for an offensive foul, or failing to navigate his way out of a double-team, Curry’s miscues have tended to undo much of the good he did with his low-post scoring.In the past seven games, those mistakes have diminished considerably. Curry’s appalling Turnover Rate of 20.4 (a measure of the percentage of his possessions that end in turnovers) has dipped to a much more reasonable 15.4. The personal fouls that kept him off the floor so often have also dipped, from 5.4 per 40 minutes to 4.3.Those numbers are a marked change from his career norms as well. If he kept the Turnover Rate around 15, it would be the second-lowest mark of his career. If he kept the foul rate at 4.3, it would be the best mark he’s ever posted. The two go hand-inhand, as it’s Curry’s tendency to run over defenders that’s put him in so much trouble.It’s an odd dance, because Curry’s worst enemy for most of his career has been a lack of fire. Yet sometimes when he comes out and tries to play physically, the fouls mount quickly and keep him out of the action. At 24, it may be that Curry has finally figured out when he can be aggressive and when it’s best to lay off. It may also be a seven-game fluke.One thing is for sure. If you’re looking for a harbinger as to whether Curry’s great play can continue, monitor the mistake rate closely. Field-goal percentages are notoriously fickle, so the Knicks’ big man may not shoot 60% all year. But if he shoots in the 50s and draws gobs of fouls, he’s still a devastating offensive weapon. The question is whether he can stay on the court for 40 minutes and keep the turnover rate reasonable. He’s done that in his recent hot stretch, and if keeps it up the other facets should take care of themselves.jhollinger@nysun.com

Curry Is on a Tremendous Streak, but How Long Will It Last?

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