Deadline Deals Draw Line Between Buyers and Sellers

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The New York Sun

Baseball’s annual trade deadline has always been one of the game’s unique entertainments, and with two weeks to go to the 2006 edition, speculation is rife about what teams need and what they might find. The modern twist is the advent of the wild card: now we have more teams that see themselves as buyers rather than sellers in the race for the eight playoff spots.

The AL playoff picture is complicated by the fact that four different competitive races involve nine different teams (10 if you count the Mariners’ bid for the AL West title). The teams in the weak AL West aren’t really in the wild-card picture, but that still leaves the top three teams in the East and Central divisions fighting over three playoff spots.

The NL wild-card race is perhaps the most interesting, with eight teams within five games of the Reds’ modest 49–44 record (as of start of play yesterday) setting the pace. However, unlike the AL, the teams in the parity-driven division race in the West can also count themselves as wild-card contenders. The Cardinals and Mets should be able to hold their leads, but there are plenty of opportunities for any one of eight teams to repeat what the Astros did last season after the break and march up the standings with a strong second half.

With so many teams entertaining October ambitions, a lot depends on which general managers make the most seductive offers to colleagues like Mark Shapiro in Cleveland or Dave Littlefield in Pittsburgh. The ranks of the sellers might also swell, because not every .500 ballclub will make the kind of surge the Astros did last season. Also, contenders might want veteran relievers like the Pirates’ Damaso Marte, the Phillies’ Tom Gordon, or even the Rockies’ Jose Mesa.

In the AL East, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could all use a starting pitcher, and the Red Sox and Yankees both could use a reliever. However, all three are waiting on injured players to help clarify the extent of their needs: the Red Sox should see the returns of David Wells or Matt Clement to their rotation; ditto the Jays with starter Gustavo Chacin, and the Yankees will see whether Octavio Dotel can give them the set-up man they need. If that seems conservative, keep in mind that in a market where the top starters might be Pittsburgh’s Kip Wells or the Phillies’ Cory Lidle, you wouldn’t be in a hurry to offer much, either.

Similarly, although the Yankees need outfielders, they might wait on Hideki Matsui’s return rather than make any deals that would cost them significant prospects.Given their financial muscle, trying to take on a major salary — Arizona’s Shawn Green, for instance, or Washington’s Alfonso Soriano — makes sense.

Toronto needs a shortstop, but the DRays’ decision to move prospect B.J. Upton from shortstop to third base probably takes starting shortstop Julio Lugo off of the market. A big-stakes play for the Pirates’ Jack Wilson would fill the Jays’ bill, but they could also try getting Cesar Izturis back from the Dodgers.

In the Central Division, it’s clear that the White Sox want to add a reliever, but will GM Kenny Williams pay for one in blood and treasure? He’s supposedly offering around starting pitching for quality relief help, but that’s never an even exchange, and few genuinely solid relievers are available. More modestly, a veteran righthander like the Cubs’ Scott Williamson would do.

The Tigers would love to balance out their righty-heavy lineup by acquiring a lefty slugger to play some outfield and DH, but having lost out on getting Aubrey Huff from Tampa, they’re stuck hoping that they can nab someone like Dave Dellucci from the Phillies, or perhaps Ryan Klesko from the Padres if he proves he’s healthy. Philadelphia’s Bobby Abreu ranks high on everybody’s list for a lefty power bat, but Phillies GM Pat Gillick wasn’t quick on the trigger on deadline deals in Seattle, and his asking price might keep Abreu in place.

In the AL West, a deal could make a real difference in who wins, because none of the teams is all that strong.The A’s and Angels might both be looking for a first baseman with power, but the list of available players isn’t long, and neither team would be filling that need by trading for the Royals’ Doug Mientkiewicz or the Pirates’ Sean Casey.

The A’s also need to add an infielder to help them compensate for Eric Chavez’s injury — the Indians’ Casey Blake or the Marlins’ Wes Helms would represent inexpensive pickups but also equally modest solutions. The Rangers are hoping that Adam Eaton’s return from the DL will give them the top starter they need, but making a play for Baltimore’s Javy Lopez to catch for them would add power to a lineup that’s disappointed them in that department.

In the NL Central, the Reds may feel they’ve done enough, but given how much GM Wayne Krivsky has already invested in keeping his club’s hopes alive, they’ll likely keep their toe in the trading pool. The Cardinals have long been rumored to have an interest in adding help at second base, so GM Walt Jocketty might settle for another one of his deadline deals, taking on some fraction of salary from one of the alreadydead teams.

Like its AL sister, the NL West has all sorts of possibilities.The Rockies and Diamondbacks haven’t decided if they’re coming or going, but the Snakes definitely have the rare opportunity to offload some salary (like Green and centerfielder Eric Byrnes) while also keeping their playoff hopes alive. The Padres desperately need a third baseman, but they don’t want to settle for guys like Cleveland’s Aaron Boone, instead hoping to land someone with some real thump, like the Brewers’ Corey Koskie.

The Giants desperately need to shore up their lineup after not having a worthwhile first baseman all season — it’s rumored that they’re interested in Casey, but the Giants’ alternatives are so weak that even someone like Mientkiewicz or the Cubs’ Phil Nevin would help. The Dodgers will be heavy bidders on any kind of relief help, although given the speed with which they change gears with the pen men they’ve had, perhaps the reliever to set manager Grady Little’s mind at ease doesn’t exist.


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