Every game has two sides to it, and sometimes the less obvious side is the more interesting one. For a timely example, look no further than the Knicks’ devastating 116-115 loss to Sacramento Friday night, in which New York punted an 11-point lead in the last four minutes.

From the local perspective, it was still another dispiriting defeat in an increasingly disappointing season. But it was also emblematic from the Kings’ perspective: Despite a subpar performance and the absences of Chris Webber, Peja Stojakovic, and Cuttino Mobley, they somehow squeaked out another unlikely win in what is becoming a highly improbable season.

Sacramento’s 32-15 mark has them fourth in the Western Conference, positioned to host a first-round playoff series. That’s pretty amazing for a team whose championship window supposedly slammed shut last season. Some prognosticators thought Sacramento wouldn’t even make the playoffs this year, while others predicted that they could squeak in as one of the bottom two or three teams. But absolutely nobody foresaw an elite team, not after Vlade Divac left for L.A., Peja Stojakovic demanded a trade, and an already-thin bench was gutted by the departures of Anthony Peeler and Gerald Wallace.

Yet the Kings are on pace to win 56 games – which would be one better than last year’s total. It doesn’t seem possible given the individual performances – the bench is an eyesore, Stojakovic is having his worst year since he was a rookie, and sparkplug Bobby Jackson was lost for the season after 24 games.

And here’s the interesting part: It doesn’t completely add up. As I’ve mentioned before, win-loss records can deceive us. Strength of schedule often makes a significant impact on teams’ records, but as the Kings are proving, luck can play an equally important role in distorting how we perceive a team’s relative strength.

In the Kings’ case, the one-point win over the Knicks was an all-too common occurrence. Sacramento’s sparkling record is mainly the result of its 15-6 performance in games decided by six points or fewer. In other words, good fortune is the one thing separating them from some of their less fortunate brethren. Dallas, for example, has outscored opponents by 104 points more than the Kings but has a worse record; Memphis’s victory margin is virtually identical, but the Grizzlies are 5 1/2 games back.

I use a tool called Expected Wins to take account of the predictable relationship between how much a team wins (or loses) by, and how many games that team wins. We’ve often heard that “good teams win the close games” but the reality is that the good teams are winning by 20. It’s the lucky teams that are winning the close games.

Some would argue that clutch ability is the basis for this difference, but it’s been shown that a team’s performance in this category varies randomly from year to year, even if its personnel and performance in other categories remains the same.

The Kings, for instance, have been near the league lead in field-goal percentage and assists every year of the Webber-Stojakovic era, but have ranked all over the map in outperforming (or underperforming) their Expected Wins totals during that time.

Expected Wins is amazingly easy to figure. Since each additional point of victory margin is worth about 2.75 wins, and a team with a margin of zero would be expected to go 41-41, one can calculate a team’s Expected Wins for an 82-game season by taking its average victory margin, multiplying by 2.75, and adding 41.

During the middle of the season, we have to prorate it to match the team’s games played, but that’s easily done by multiplying by the team’s games played and dividing the result by 82. Normally, the result closely matches reality: The Knicks, for instance, had 18 Expected Wins heading into yesterday’s game in Utah, matching their 18-29 record.

But let’s talk about the teams that aren’t closely matching reality, because their win-loss records are depicting a false picture of their actual quality.

Sacramento takes center stage in this discussion, as their Expected Win total would have them at 29-18 – tying them for the biggest differential in the league at +3. The Nets are in the same boat. While nobody would describe them as “lucky” given the injuries they’ve sustained this year, the Nets have given up 194 more points than they’ve allowed – only four teams are worse.

Normally, that kind of performance would have a team at 17-30, but New Jersey has defied expectations much the same way the Kings have, going 12-4 in games decided by six points or fewer and just 8-23 in all the others.

On the other hand, we have teams like the San Antonio Spurs, who own the league’s best record at 38-10, but are even better than their record would indicate.

The Spurs are putting up one of the best victory margins in history, pounding opponents by an average of 11 points per game. Normally, that kind of victory margin would result in a record of 42-6. So despite their league-best mark, the Spurs actually are falling short of their Expected Wins total more than any other team in the league.

What about the bigger picture? What would the league’s standings look like if we ranked teams by Expected Wins instead of actual wins? It turns out that we can reach some interesting conclusions.

Think that no. 3 seed in the East is going to be an easy mark in the playoffs? Think again. When examining the accompanying chart ranking the Eastern Conference teams, Boston has the fourth-best point differential in the conference and would normally be 26-22 right now, considering that they’ve outscored opponents by nearly two points per game. That number should only improve, as the Celtics’ stable of rookies and second-year players look poised to make great strides in the season’s second half.

But here’s the bigger, more shocking picture: The East is even worse than it looks. Of the 15 teams, eight are winning more games than Expected Wins projects, while only two go the other way.

The opposite is true out West, which is home to many of the league’s unluckiest teams.

Sacramento doesn’t seem quite as impressive in this analysis. The Mavericks, meanwhile, streak ahead of the Kings and Sonics for the no. 3 position. Also, note that Minnesota fares much better against the Lakers and Clippers in this analysis – meaning we still should expect the T-wolves to hold off those two for the West’s final playoff spot.

Overall, it’s hard to imagine the Kings maintaining their top-four spot; in fact, they’ll probably wind up a distant sixth. They’ve not only benefited from an easy schedule, but as the exercise above shows, have had unusually good luck in close games. Fortunately, using Expected Wins helps illustrate how win-loss records can deceive us. In this case, the Kings’ 32-15 mark is the NBA’s Pinocchio.