Los Angeles Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta is not a popular guy. It is not uncommon to read criticism of a general manager; what is uncommon is to read predictions that a team coming off a postseason appearance is doomed to failure before more than a handful of games have been played. But just three of 19 writers surveyed by ESPN.com before the season predicted the Dodgers to repeat as division champions.

The heart of the critics’ argument appears to be threefold. First, they have not forgiven DePodesta for trading catcher Paul Lo Duca during the heat of last year’s pennant race. Second, they were skeptical of his off-season strategy, most notably his failure to re-sign third baseman Adrian Beltre and his decision to spend money on J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe instead. Third, they’ve noted his failures to communicate with fans, journalists, and his peers around the game. Do the skeptics have a case?

It’s still too early to make a definitive judgment on the trade that sent Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, and Juan Encarnacion to Florida for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and prospect Bill Murphy – but it certainly didn’t merit the cascade of abuse showered on DePodesta at the time. Lo Duca is 33, the age at which catchers typically begin to break down; he, along with Mota and Encarnacion, played poorly down the stretch in Florida last year.

Choi and Penny, meanwhile, are the youngest of the five major leaguers involved in the deal, underscoring DePodesta’s desire to build for the future at the same time as his team contends for a title – though Penny’s arm injuries could eat into some upside. Murphy was used to obtain Steve Finley a week later, and the Dodgers went on to win its division. The trade looks no worse than a wash, but because it involved Lo Duca, a favorite among fans and the press, it remains a focal point for DePodesta detractors.

Critics of the Dodgers’ offseason are on similarly thin ground. In the accompanying chart, we’ve employed some proprietary Baseball Prospectus tools to help analyze DePodesta’s moves this winter. The first is Value Over Replacement Player, a measure of the number of runs a player is worth relative to a freely available alternative at his position – think Bubba Crosby. The second is our Pitcher Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (Pecota), a state-of-the-art projection system that uses weighted averages of a player’s last three seasons, combined with biographical information such as age, height, and weight, to predict future performance.

There are nine players that made the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster who weren’t with the organization at the end of 2004. In addition to Drew and Lowe, DePodesta signed free agent infielders Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin, outfielder Ricky Ledee, pitchers Kelly Wunsch and Scott Erickson, and catcher Paul Bako; all but Kent were signed to minimal contracts. In addition, DePodesta acquired catcher Jason Phillips from the Mets for pitcher Kaz Ishii.

Apart from Beltre and Ishii, the Dodgers lost six other players who were part of last October’s playoff roster. Shawn Green was dealt for prospects in the Randy Johnson-Javier Vazquez deal. Second baseman Alex Cora was released after the team brought in Kent and Valentin. Pinch-hitter Robin Ventura retired. Free agents Finley, Jose Lima, and Jose Hernandez were allowed to sign elsewhere.

If our projections are correct (see accompanying chart), then DePodesta has gained more for his club than they’ve lost. The five key acquisitions have a projected worth 129.7 VORP to 104.5 for the five key departures; in all, the incoming players are projected to combine for a VORP of 145.1 vs. 114.5 for the ex-Dodgers, or about 30 runs in DePodesta’s favor. What’s more, DePodesta has shaved several million dollars off the team’s payroll, mostly as a result of having convinced the Diamondbacks to take on Green’s albatross of a contract.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dodgers will improve upon last year’s 93-win finish – they can expect some regression from light-hitting shortstop Cesar Izturis and pitcher Odalis Perez, whose low batting average allowed on balls in play is likely to rise back to more normal levels in 2005. But it does suggest that DePodesta had a constructive winter.

Beltre represented a no-win situation for the Dodgers: He is certainly a valuable player, but almost as certainly was going to be overpaid in the free-agent market, the result of posting a huge walk year in 2004 after a largely unproductive career to that point. The Pecota system, which recalls Beltre’s undistinguished history, forecasts a .279 batting average, a .337 on-base average, and 26 home runs in 2005 – productive numbers, but not in line with the $11.4 million he’ll earn in Seattle this year.

Drew, conversely, looks like one of the better bargains of the winter. He certainly has a checkered injury history, but he’s also been one of the best players in the league when healthy – last year, for example, he finished with a higher VORP than Carlos Beltran despite playing in 14 fewer games. Drew is not as complete a player as Beltran, but the Dodgers also committed less than half of the Mets’ money to wrap up the former Brave.

Kent, meanwhile, was signed to a limited-risk, two-year contract. Though he’s not the player that he once was and his defense is at best league average, Pecota projects Kent to finish with the highest VORP of any National League second baseman. The Lowe signing is harder to justify, but his four-year, $36 million deal doesn’t look any worse than those doled out to Kris Benson, Eric Milton, or Russ Ortiz.

It would seem, then, that it’s the third point – DePodesta’s alleged failures to communicate – that is most responsible for the harsh treatment. DePodesta is unapologetic in his taste for players like Choi, Valentin, and Jayson Werth, who are liked by statistical analysts because their power and walk rates overshadow low batting averages. While charismatic in his own way, DePodesta is less telegenic than fellow stathead GMs Billy Beane and Theo Epstein.

This is about as trivial as it gets. DePodesta might not be befriending L.A. beat writers, but his team won the division in 2004, and has gone 6-2 to start the new season. If the Dodgers finish the year as well as they’ve started, one suspects the criticisms will be forgotten.

Mr. Silver writes for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art analysis, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.