With six weeks left until the Churchill Downs infield becomes a big mud-wrestling pit, the Kentucky Derby trail itself has become rather muddy. A short month ago, this year’s crop of 3-year-olds appeared astonishingly consistent and mature. But early favorites Afleet Alex, Roman Ruler, and Declan’s Moon have waned, and more faltered Saturday, including Proud Accolade, Shamardal, and Spanish Chestnut.

That’s what’s so wonderful about the prep race season: The horses are young, so the races are weird and hard to compare. It’s a hard game to bet, but with payouts like we witnessed this weekend, you don’t have to be right very often to break even.

This weekend was all about long shots, and none was longer than Blues and Royals: The colt paid out $103.80 at the Nad al Sheba racetrack in Dubai, where 12 3-year-olds hit the track in the $2 million UAE Derby.

The favorite in the race was Shamardal. Last year’s European champion 2-year-old male was making his dirt debut, and was considered to be Godolphin Stables’ Derby horse. Jockey Frankie Dettori said after Saturday’s race that he “just couldn’t get him to settle.” But he settled all right … 46 lengths behind Blues and Royals, another Godolphin Stables horse.

Blues and Royals, who came under the wire an incredible 12 lengths in front, was running for the first time this year, the first time in a stakes race, and the first time over dirt. No wonder his odds were so high. The horse will be at Churchill on May 7, but he won’t race again until then. That is a gutsy plan: Ship in from Dubai and train up to the most competitive race of the year.

Closer to home, the highly regarded Proud Accolade took a shot at Saturday’s 1 1/16 -mile Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The Todd Pletcher horse had been drawing lots of attention, and all he had to do was answer some questions about distance. Those questions were answered – with a resounding “no.”

Proud Accolade last went in the Hutcheson Stakes in February, which he took by 4 1/2 lengths. He was the 2-5 favorite going into the Rushaway, despite being 0-for-2 around two turns as a 2-year-old. Saturday, he made a move on the outside, coming into contention briefly, and then sank on the stretch.

The race went to the late-moving Cat Shaker, and owner William Callis announced immediately that he would put up the $6,000 for late nomination to the Derby. But one good move over a muddy track to pay $79.80 in a nongraded $100,000 stakes race does not make a Derby horse.

Pletcher’s plans for Proud Accolade may not have panned out, but his decision to send Flower Alley to the post for the $500,000 Grade II Lane’s End Stakes certainly did.

That race had a remarkably deep field. Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs line maker, told Louisville’s Courier-Journal that any horse could win the evenly matched race, adding that a good run from any colt would put him into the short list on Derby Day.

That said, Spanish Chestnut was installed as a 5-2 favorite. Jockey Gary Stevens hustled the speed horse out front and tried to hold on. Mr. Sword engaged him – way too early. Spanish Chestnut faded to sixth, and Mr. Sword was overcome in the last yards by a rocket-fueled close from Flower Alley.

Flower Alley, who had started only twice before, returned $22.40, the second-longest odds on the board. The horse demonstrated the same singularly odd running style he exhibited during his victory in a February allowance at Gulfstream over a mile: Early lead, slight fade to settle in, followed by a late close. It’s an odd strategy – if one can call it that – but it could hold Flower Alley in good stead.

This Derby field is shaping up to be very speedy, and being able to calm down after shooting to the front with a zippy herd of speedsters could work to Flower Alley’s advantage. It’s a rare horse, after all, that will drop back and then come again. If jockey Jorge Chavez indeed has control over the horse, it might be a great help in overcoming Derby traffic and establishing position without succumbing to a hot pace. That Flower Alley is lightly raced is worthy of concern, but many of the big guns will head to the Derby with only a couple of preps behind them.

So where, then, do we stand? Roman Ruler and Lost in Fog aren’t going to the Derby. Rockport Harbor has a foot injury, but he’s pointed at the Arkansas Derby. High Fly has a fever, but he’s going into the Florida Derby anyway. Sun King, the current Derby favorite, has yet to run against top horses. And this weekend, lightly run long shots beat first-string horses from the big stables. The Derby trail is getting messy.

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The unpredictability of 3-year-old colts is perhaps best pointed out in contrast with older horses. One of the best, 5-year-old Roses in May, flew all the way to Dubai and did exactly what he was supposed to do – destroy the competition in Saturday’s $6 Million Dubai World Cup, horse racing’s richest race.

Roses in May is much faster than any of the horses that came to challenge him in the desert; sure enough, he took control on the stretch after staying up in the race for the entire 2,000 meters. Dynever raced his last go-around the track to come in second – not a bad way to close out a career, second in a $6 million race.