DALLAS – Looking at the names on the Miami Heat’s roster, it’s easy to think how they might have an advantage when the NBA Finals tips off tonight.

The coach, Pat Riley, and the star center, Shaquille O’Neal, have been here many times, winning multiple titles. They’re not alone. Gary Payton and Shandon Anderson have tasted the NBA Finals as well, while Antoine Walker, Derek Anderson, Wayne Simien, Udonis Haslem, and Michael Doleac all know the feeling of an NCAA title game. Five other key Miami players – Walker, Dwyane Wade, Derek Anderson, Jason Williams, and Alonzo Mourning – have played in multiple conference finals, leaving James Posey as the only key Heat player taking the court in June for the first time.

Contrast that with the Dallas Mavericks. Coach Avery Johnson won a ring as a player, and assistant Dell Harris coached the Rockets in the finals a quarter-century ago. Other than those two, the only rotation player on the Mavericks with finals experience is Keith Van Horn, and as experiences go, it wasn’t a very good one. Jason Terry is the only Maverick with a ring of any kind, coming off the bench as a freshman when Arizona won the NCAA title. All told, only three Mavs – Nowitzki, Van Horn, and Adrian Griffin – had even been to the conference finals before this season.

That gulf in experience would normally lead me to side with Miami in this series,except for one thing – the Mavs are better. Much better. Run down the teams side by side and you’ll see how, at every position, the Mavs match up much better against the Heat than Miami does against the Mavs.

CENTER

Shaquille O’Neal is finally rounding into shape, busting out with a 30-point, 20-rebound game to finish off Chicago in the opening round and taking over key stretches of the conference finals against Detroit. He’s not back to Most Dominant Ever status, or even to his level of last season, but it’s going to be awfully hard to keep him under 20 and 10 every night.

Dallas, however, matches up against the Big Fella as well as any team in the league. The acquisitions of 7-footers Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop have allowed the Mavs to defend physical interior players in a way they never could before, and having two of them gives Dallas much freer reign in terms of hacking Shaq any time he gets near the rim. Their benefit won’t only be felt in post defense, but on the defensive glass as well – Dallas is among the best rebounding teams in the league, so Shaq might not get as many easy putbacks as he does against most clubs.

If all that fails, there’s always Plan B: The Mavs can go small with Nowitzki or Van Horn at center, and force O’Neal to try to guard the perimeter without picking up fouls.

POWER FORWARD

Dirk Nowitzki has been a one-man wrecking crew in the postseason, capped in Game 5 against Phoenix when he put the Mavs on his back and dropped 50 on the Suns. That’s not a fluke, either – Nowitzki was the best player in the league this season according to my Player efficiency Rating (PER, a per-minute rating of a player’s statistical production).

So far in the postseason, he’s abused two top-notch defenders in San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen and Phoenix’s Shawn Marion. That takes us to the Heat, who doesn’t have a forward of nearly that caliber to play the German 7-footer. Haslem, a 6-foot-9-inch power forward with modest mobility, will start out against him, but reserves Posey and Anderson also are likely to see action against Dirk.

Most likely, all of them will be overmatched, especially when Nowitzki does his trademark foul-line post up and starts lofting feathery jumpers right over them. That leaves Miami with a couple of unpalatable options – double-team or play a zone. Either one opens the floor for the other Mavs, and neither is guaranteed to silence Dirk.

SMALL FORWARD

Miami needs Antoine Walker on the floor for his offense, but the big question in this series is whether it can live with his defense. The Heat have been vulnerable all series to dribble penetration from opposing small forwards – Chicago’s Andres Nocioni, New Jersey’s Richard Jefferson, and Detroit’s Tayshaun Prince all effortlessly navigated around Walker.

Now comes another test in the form of Dallas’s Josh Howard. The Mavs’ second-best player, Howard overcame two ankle sprains to help Nowitzki take down the Suns in the Western Conference finals, and he has a major quickness advantage against Walker. That’s not just a half-court consideration, either. Howard’s speed edge mirrors advantages Dallas also has at power forward and center, making transition defense a major concern for the Heat.

SHOOTING GUARD

Dwyane Wade has been brilliant in the postseason, and his appearance at Tuesday’s press session suggests that he’s mostly over the flu bug that laid him low the past few days. But the Mavericks can throw more defenders at him than previous opponents. New Jersey didn’t have a wing defender who could stay in his area code and Detroit’s Richard Hamilton was a fairly easy mark for Wade as well.

Contrast that with the Mavs, who have quick, long-armed wingmen like Howard, Adrian Griffin, and Marquis Daniels. Griffin is likely to get the starting assignment, but once supersub Jerry Stackhouse replaces him, it will become Howard’s show. At 6-foot-7, Howard has the length to shut down guards, as Steve Nash learned in the second half of Game 6 in the Western finals. Best of all, he has insurance if fouls are a problem, since Griffin and Daniels are no slouches either. Dallas won’t shut down Wade, but he’ll have to work for his 20.

POINT GUARD

The point guard battle features two good-shooting, bad-defending Jasons who both have endured more than their fare share of criticism. This matchup figures to go to Dallas’s Jason Terry, however, and not Miami’s Jason Williams. For one, Williams has battled a sore knee most of the season that has forced the Heat to limit his minutes.

More importantly, Terry is ideally suited to attack one of Miami’s biggest weaknesses. He loves to come off the pick-and-roll going to his right and either fire a quick jumper or blaze to the rim. Shaq’s biggest weakness is helping his guard on that play, something that Chicago ruthlessly exploited in the first round to make an on-paper mismatch last six games. It also could put the Miami big man in early foul trouble, which an untenable situation from the Heat’s perspective.

OVERALL

Like I said, the Mavs are just better. Look at the two seasons. Dallas won eight more games despite playing in a better conference, swept a 49-win Memphis team in the first round, knocked out the defending champs in the second round, and lost exactly once by more than five points. The Heat have played better in the postseason than they did in the first 82 games, but they still got hammered twice by a .500 team in the first round and lost by double figures to New Jersey in their own building.

Considering all those strengths, and two others I’ve barely touched on – Dallas has the better bench and the homecourt advantage – it’s hard to imagine a non-injury scenario in which the Heat prevail. These have been Nowitzki’s playoffs, and after six games I expect the championship trophy to be his as well.

The Pick: Mavericks in six games

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.