If there’s been a theme to the 2005 season, it’s reaping what you sow.

The Yankees spent years neglecting their defense while collecting high-priced, back-loaded contracts. Now they have four designated hitters on the roster, three teams ahead of them in the A.L. East standings, and no obvious solutions. Many sluggers spent years injecting themselves with all sorts of illegal substances. Now, with steroid punishments that fit the crime, suspensions are on the rise and power numbers are down.

One suspects that the Chicago Cubs must be quietly pleased that the Bombers and the Juicers are hogging the headlines: It helps to obscure the impact of their own dreadful 13-17 start. Indeed, while the national press has given relatively little ink to the Cubs, the mood is dour in Chicago – not even a Mother’s Day five-hitter by ace Carlos Zambrano could cure the sense of cynicism.

The negative sentiments are justified. Our “Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds” report, which figures the chances of a team reaching the playoffs based on its performance to date and the current standings, estimates that the Cubs have just a 7% chance of making the 2005 playoffs. That’s what you get when you spot a six-game cushion to a team as strong as the Cardinals.

But do the Cubs belong in the same category as the Yankees? Should they have seen this coming?

Entering the season, it seemed as though General Manager Jim Hendry and the rest of the Cubs’ brain trust had done most of the big things right. For one, the Cubs have a fine core of talent, ranging from first baseman Derrek Lee to third baseman Aramis Ramirez to the fiery young pitching staff. What’s more, their scouting and development has been excellent, Hendry’s trade record is impeccable, and the Cubs are poised to sell out their entire season schedule despite increasing ticket prices for the second consecutive year.

It was also clear, however, that Hendry and his staff had done a lot of the little things wrong. First, they disregarded the importance of on-base average, instead focusing too much on power; second, they have neglected to monitor pitcher workloads; third, they have failed to add depth in the bullpen, and fourth, they’ve demonstrated a parallel lack of emphasis on offensive bench depth.

If the big things are going right, these are the sorts of issues that might consign a pennant-worthy team to the wild card. But if the big things aren’t going right – and Lee’s hot start aside, they haven’t so far this year – they might knock a promising team out of contention. So how much have the little things been responsible for the Cubs’ slow start? Let’s take a look, point by point.

* On-Base Average Last season, the Cubs ranked just seventh in the N.L. in runs scored despite leading the league in home runs; the culprit was a .328 team on-base average that ranked near the bottom of the circuit. Things aren’t much better this season. The Cubs’ OBA has dipped to .322, and the club ranks ahead of only the sad-sack Rockies in drawing walks. Particularly discouraging has been the lack of progress of centerfielder Corey Patterson, whose walk rate had shown signs of improvement in the second half of last season; he has just six free passes and a .286 OBA so far this season.

* Pitcher Workloads Whatever the ethical implications of preserving the health of young pitchers, monitoring pitch counts and workloads are first and foremost a strategic issue – you don’t want your young breadwinner coming up with a bum elbow in his next start. Yet according to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitcher Abuse Points system, which tracks each pitcher’s high-pitch outings – our research indicates that injury and performance risk begins to increase exponentially after about 110 pitches in an outing – the Cubs’ pitchers were the third-most abused in 2004, after leading the league by a wide margin in 2003. Most of the damage was done to the team’s trio of excellent young starters – Zambrano, Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior. Zambrano, for example, has averaged more than 110 pitches per start over the past three seasons.

While it can be very difficult to draw cause-and-effect arrows when it comes to pitcher usage, the young starters’ performance this season is at least consistent with the notion that more care could have been taken. The bite on Zambrano’s pitches has been inconsistent, resulting in a marked increase in his home runs allowed and ERA. Prior has recovered well after starting the season on the disabled list, but Wood is back on the shelf after walking 14 batters in 26.1 inning. Of course, one can point to factors like Wood’s poor mechanics. But that is all the more reason that the Cubs should have proceeded more carefully with him.

* Bullpen Depth Much of Chicago’s ire has focused on closer LaTroy Hawkins, who has already blown three saves in seven tries this season. The problem isn’t so much Hawkins, but his colleagues – Hawkins’s 3.84 ERA compares favorably to the 4.28 ERA posted by the rest of the bullpen.

The primary setup men this season have been a washed-up Mike Remlinger (4.82 ERA) and failed starting prospect Michael Wuertz (4.60 ERA). Ryan Dempster, fresh off Tommy John surgery, will be the latest Cub to get a crack at the closer’s job, but he has a 5.35 ERA and 20 walks in 33.2 IP this season. Building a bullpen on the cheap is one thing, but using it as a staging point for third-tier prospects and injury rehabilitation gambles is another.

* Bench Depth Cubs pinch hitters – Jose Macias has the most at-bats in that role – have managed just a .627 OPS thus far. That’s a predictable result for a team that builds a bench around the whims of manager Dusty Baker, rather than acquiring a legitimate core of second-tier talent.

The bigger problem, of course, is that some players who would ordinarily belong on the bench have found their way into the starting lineup. Neifi Perez, though he has performed well above his career norms this season, is an inadequate replacement for Nomar Garciaparra at shortstop. Assuming that Perez gets 400 more at-bats in Garciaparra’s place this year, this will chop about 38 runs off the Cubs’ output. Garciaparra’s injury, of course, is not something that the Cubs could have prevented, and the team did well to sign him to a one-year, incentive-laden contract. But a team with injury prone starters must do a better job of filling out its bench.

All of these things fall under the category of little luxuries. The Cubs have the core talent base, revenue stream, and management brainpower in place to sweat the small stuff; instead, they’ve neglected it. This year, the Cubs had a smaller margin for error – and they are paying the price.

Mr. Silver writes for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-ofthe-art content, please visit baseballprospectus.com.