The old saw holds that great pitching beats great hitting. In the Cardinals-Dodgers Division Series this year, there’s not much of the former and quite a bit of the latter.

Unlike say, the Red Sox, who combine great hitting with great pitching, all of the Cardinals’ stars are hitters. Their top pitchers are league-average at best; none of them can single-handedly change the complexion of a series like Curt Schilling or Johan Santana.

The Redbirds’ no. 1 starter for this series is Woody Williams, a 37-year-old who has been in steady decline after two excellent but injury plagued seasons in 2001 and 2002. Williams fared relatively well in Game 1 of the series Tuesday, allowing just two runs in six innings during the Cardinals’ 8-3 win. But he won’t be expected to win many games on his own with the Cardinals’ big bats hitting balls out of the park at a record pace.

Behind Williams in the rotation is last night’s starter, Jason Marquis, who sports a 3.71 regular-season ERA and a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio. The third starter is Matt Morris, the former ace who has fallen on tough times. Battling injuries all season, Morris struggled to a 4.72 ERA; the difference between Morris and Marquis is almost entirely a result of Morris giving up 35 home runs this season, as opposed to Marquis’s 26.

Only Chris Carpenter – who is injured and unavailable for the first round and possibly the entire playoffs – has performed like something resembling a true staff ace, notching a 3.46 ERA with solid peripheral numbers.

On the other side of the diamond, the Dodgers don’t feature nearly the offensive firepower their opponents do. So they’ll have to win the series on the wings of their pitchers, a group that would have been dramatically different if Randy Johnson had waived his no trade clause and signed up in July.

Instead of Johnson, the Dodgers traded for Brad Penny, who instantly became the team’s best pitcher with his 3.15 ERA and imposing strikeout totals. As fate would have it, Penny hurt his biceps shortly after arriving in L.A. and will be unavailable for the entire postseason.

With Penny down, the Dodgers’ rotation now begins with Odalis Perez, who has quietly had a very good season: Though poor run support made him the no-decision king with a 7-6 record, Perez ranked among the league leaders with a 3.25 ERA. But he struggled in Game 1 against the Cardinals, giving up six earned runs in just 2 2 /3 innings of work.

Last night the Dodgers turned to Jeff Weaver, the former Tigers star who has rebounded in Los Angeles after a dismal stay with the Yankees. Weaver threw 220 regular-season innings with a 4.01 ERA; after adjusting for pitching friendly Dodger Stadium, those numbers begin to balloon. Last night, Weaver looked much like the pitcher who bombed with the Yankees last year, giving up six runs in 4 2 /3 innings.

The Dodgers’ third starter is Jose Lima, who has never been as good as his 21-win season with Houston in 1999. This year is no different. Lima has a respectable 4.06 ERA, but he gives up home runs at a disturbingly high rate – which plays right into the hands of the Cards’ power lineup.

So how do this series’ pitchers compare to others in recent memory? Better than you might think, actually.

The honor of worst playoff rotation since the advent of divisional play in 1995 goes to that year’s Colorado Rockies, who were led by such memorable names as Kevin Ritz, Bill Swift, Marvin Freeman, and Armando Reynoso. Baseball Prospectus uses a stat called Value Over Replacement Player, which measures a player’s contribution in runs, compared to a scrap-heap replacement like Jeff Fassero. The ’95 Rockies’ playoff rotation of Ritz, Lance Painter, Swift, and the broken-down Bret Saberhagen totaled just 23.6 VORP.

Put another way, that’s an average of just six runs better per pitcher than any freely availably Triple-A lifer. While the high scoring at Coors Field is somewhat to blame, VORP is adjusted for the home team’s park, meaning the altitude isn’t a viable excuse.

The Texas teams of the late 1990s were similar to this year’s Cardinals. Led by Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Juan Gonzalez, the Rangers featured the league’s most feared offense. They also carried one of the weaker rotations in recent memory, consisting of Rick Helling, John Burkett, Mike Morgan, and Aaron Sele.

Compared to those teams, this year’s Cardinals and Dodgers come off rather well. While neither team truly features a staff ace, the pitching in this series isn’t nearly as bad as it may initially seem.

While the Dodgers probably don’t have enough offense to compensate for their pitching, the Cardinals could well emulate the 1997 Indians, who rode a slugging lineup and mediocre pitching to the World Series. Still, it’s feast or famine for teams with mediocre pitching in October. Of the 15 worst rotations since 1995, only four have advanced past the first round, while others like the 2000 Yankees (4.87 team ERA) have overcome their troubled pitching staffs to win the World Series.

Though pitching is at a premium in October, not having a dominant starter is neither rare nor a guarantee of failure in the season’s final days.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.