Dog Days Come Early In Yankees’ Schedule

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The New York Sun

We’re going to learn a lot about what the 2007 Yankees are really made of in the next few weeks. The schedule makers, when they weren’t busy arranging for the warm-weather teams to spend the first week visiting the cold-weather teams, set the Yankees an April test.

Today the Yankees begin a three-game series at Oakland, and it shouldn’t be the ordeal it once was. As usual, the A’s have terrific starting pitching, with their starters posting a 1.98 ERA — first in the majors — through the first 10 games. By contrast, Yankees starters have a 6.38 ERA through eight games — second to last in the majors. Fortunately for the Yankees, Oakland’s lineup has deteriorated to the point that the A’s may not be able to take advantage of that disparity. At this writing, nine players for the Yankees have hit more home runs than Oakland’s two, with Alex Rodriguez hitting three times as many.

The Giants are also stuck on two home runs. Perhaps it’s something in the local water supply, or cosmic retribution for Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire wearing the local colors.

Thirteen games after the A’s series, the Yankees are slated to open May with 16 games against the Rangers, Mariners, and the White Sox, all of which should be among the safer contests on the schedule. The Mariners have an awesome weapon in King Felix Hernandez, who one-hit the Red Sox on Wednesday, but not much depth after him, particularly on offense. The Rangers’ pitching is in and out, and the offense has been poorly conceived. The White Sox aren’t what they were just a few years ago, with thin pitching and only a few really threatening offensive players.

To get to that island of calm, the Yankees will first have to go through the Indians, Red Sox, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays. The Devil Rays, who have the worst starters’ ERA in baseball at 7.51 are the only pretenders on the list; fittingly, the Yankees will visit for an abbreviated two-game set. The rest are alarmingly real.

The Indians are favored to win the AL Central. They have a deep offense led by a player who can claim to be the best hitter in baseball, Travis Hafner, and another who can make a plausible argument that he’s the best all-around player, Grady Sizemore. It’s tough to read a lot into the team’s early numbers because weather problems have caused the Indians to miss about half the schedule, but shortstop Jhonny Peralta is off to a good start (.353/.429/.706, albeit in just five games), which is significant. His offensive and defensive collapse, along with a bullpen that can most charitably be described as non-existent, doomed the Indians last year. The bullpen still looks to be a problem — Roberto Hernandez’s body seems to have remembered that it’s 42, and Joe Borowski is no closer — but if Peralta is back the Indians may be able to overcome.

The Jays are what the Jays were last year: a team with some interesting parts that don’t quite add up into a convincing contender. The team happens to be leading the AL East right now, but a lack of good quality starting pitchers after Roy Halladay won’t allow them to keep it up. The offense will be solid, if not spectacularly powerful. Given the existence of the Devil Rays and the Orioles, the Blue Jays live by default in the division’s top rank. They’re not great, but they’ll never be easy.

You might have heard about that team that plays in Boston, the Red Sox. The Yankees will play them six times, home and away, before the end of the month. They’re not hitting yet — J.D. Drew, whose signing was greatly maligned this off-season is the only player off to a good start. In fact, the Red Sox may not have a great offense this year. Drew is outstanding when healthy, but David Ortiz is just outstanding. Manny Ramirez is an all-time great hitter. The rest of the lineup won’t be anything special.

Given how well the starting pitching has done in the early going, it seems more likely that the Sox will be able to survive their shaky middle relief. One key to the rest of their season will be how many times the schedule will allow them to skip fifth starter Julian Tavarez, and how quickly an alternative, such as Jon Lester, might make himself available.

We’re used to thinking about the baseball season in terms of having a good finish, a hot stretch run. But a win is a win regardless of when in the season it takes place. Starting April 17, the Yankees will play four series against teams they have to beat. The standings on May 1 may well be the standings we’ll be looking at for the rest of the season.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.comand is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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