Indianapolis “only” went 12-4 this season, but according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it with the NFL average based on situation and opponent – the Colts played at a level equal to the Patriots and Steelers this season. In fact, based on the weighted DVOA trend that gives stronger consideration to recent performance, the Colts are probably the best team in the NFL today.

Why should the Colts, who thrashed the Broncos 41-10 during last year’s playoffs, be worried about Denver? The answer is that a handful of early plays can dramatically change the rhythm of a game, turning a potential rout into an upset.

When the teams played during the 2003 regular season, Denver used the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. The Broncos held onto the ball for 45 minutes of possession time and won 31-17, leading many observers to assume that they

would easily win the rematch in the same fashion. But Broncos offensive lineman Dan Neil was called for two 10-yard holding penalties on one drive and a 15-yard chop block penalty on another, which kept the Broncos from using their running game. The Colts scored touchdowns on their first four drives, and that was the ballgame.

Of course, there is no guarantee this week that the Broncos will cripple themselves with penalties the way they did in last year’s playoffs. Denver’s strength on the ground still directly matches the Colts’ biggest weakness, and that makes an upset possible.

WHEN DENVER HAS THE BALL

Denver’s DVOA rating for rushing offense is lower than you might expect because of the struggles of Quentin Griffin in the season’s first four games. But the Broncos have rat ed in the top 10 for rushing offense since Week 5, when Reuben Droughns took over as the starter. And the running game has picked up even further since the Broncos began sharing carries between Droughns and rookie Tatum Bell.

Football Outsiders’ Running Back Success Rate says that Bell has been successful on 57% of his carries this season, the second-best among backs with at least 75 carries. Droughns has been successful on 51% of his carries, still above average; Griffin was successful on a pitiful 33% of his carries. One area where Droughns is clearly superior to Bell is at picking up blitzes. Droughns is a former fullback who levels on-rushing linebackers, while Bell gets crushed.

That’s important because the Colts’ pass defense depends on NFL sack leader Dwight Freeney and pass-rushing specialist Robert Mathis to cover up weaknesses in the secondary. Freeney will do battle with Broncos left tackle Matt Lepsis, whose past as a tight end fits into Denver’s preference for small, quick linemen. The elusive Freeney can out-rush huge left tackles like the Ravens’ Jonathan Ogden and the Vikings’ Bryant McKinnie, but the dexterous 290-pound Lepsis might be able to keep him in check. It’s also worth noting that Denver allowed only 15 sacks this season, third fewest in the league.

The running game is also key to avoiding the Colts’ biggest strength on defense. Although average overall, the Colts’ defense was the best in the league this year on third and fourth downs. The better the Denver running game, the fewer third-and-long situations where the Indianapolis pass rush shines.

The Broncos will also need to remedy their problems in the red zone. Denver’s offense gained huge chunks of yardarge all season, but had problems ending drives with seven points instead of three. A parade of Jason Elam field goals won’t be enough to keep up with Manning.

WHEN INDY HAS THE BALL

There’s not much more to say about the no. 1-ranked Indianapolis offense. The Broncos must concentrate on keeping Manning and Co. off the field, because the Colts will score when they have the ball. While Denver’s defense is better than people realize, its weaknesses are clear and ready to be picked apart.

The issue is not whether the Broncos can stop the pass, but which pass. According to DVOA, the Broncos had the second-best defense in the league on passes to running backs and wide receivers, trailing only Buffalo in both categories. That – as well as their success against the run – is a sign of their quality linebacking corps, led by veteran Al Wilson in the middle and impressive rookie D.J. Williams on the weak side.

The secondary, on the other hand, was wildly inconsistent this season, and the Broncos ranked 23rd in preventing passes to wide receivers. While they might take away Manning’s fourth and fifth options, they are likely to run into problems covering Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.

Depth in the secondary is important against the Colts, and the Broncos will miss injured cornerbacks

Lenny Walls and Willie Middlebrooks. Another wild card is Champ Bailey. Many people remember Bailey getting burned by Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson for two 50-yard receptions on Monday Night Football, but two weeks earlier Bailey kept the NFL’s top receiver, Mushin Muhammad, to just one catch for nine yards.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is a problem area for both teams. Mike Vanderjagt not only was awful as usual on kickoffs, he has struggle through an off-year on field goals. The Colts replaced him on kickoffs at mid-year, first with Jason Baker and then Martin Grammatica. Both were better but still below average. Baker, ironically, has now replaced Micah Knorr in Denver, improving their punting but hurting them on kickoffs.

OUTLOOK

The dominance of the Indianapolis offense makes this the greatest mismatch of the first-round games, but the Broncos should not to be dismissed. Their strength in the running game matches the Colts’ greatest weakness, and the same problem that relegated them to wild card status – inconsistency – is also a reason to believe that they could upset the Colts. You simply never know when they might play their best game of the year.

The Pick: Indianapolis

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.