Don’t Cringe: Miles Is Worth the Gamble

When I first heard the rumors that the Knicks were pursuing Portland small forward Darius Miles, I cringed. This had all the hallmarks of a bad Isiah Thomas move. Then I looked closer at Miles’s numbers and began to reconsider. When I heard the rumors about the Knicks acquiring Philadelphia power forward Chris Webber, I cringed again, and my expression has yet to change.The downside of Miles is crystal clear. At 25,his bad attitude has already cost him his job with both Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers. Now the Blazers, a year after they gave him a far bigger contract than he deserved, can’t wait to rid themselves of him. In addition, he will have trouble spacing the floor properly because he’s a three who can’t shoot the three. In six seasons, Miles is a 16.8% — yes 16.8% — shooter from behind the arc. He’s not too good on free throws, either, nailing only 58.6% from the line. He’s clashed with every coach he’s played for in the NBA and is due $34 million between now and the spring of 2010.Hey, I cringe for good reasons.Still, Miles’s upside isn’t all that imaginary. He’s a good shooter (47.1% for his career) who, unlike Baron Davis for instance, doesn’t gun from beyond his range (he’s attempted only 125 treys in 412 games). He’s also an excellent rebounder and a credible defender.That point holds greater weight when you examine his numbers, especially in Portland. During his first season, he was a borderline all-star performer, scoring 17.8 points per 40 minutes on 52.6% shooting. His Player Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger’s per minute tally of a player’s contributions) was 18.6, substantially above the league average of 15. Miles was 22 at the time and after mixed but promising results with L.A. and Cleveland, it seemed that his future was bright. But his two subsequent seasons have been mediocre and poor, respectively. Then again, he was playing for Portland, a 27–55 team two years ago and 21–61 last season. The Trail Blazers are the only team in the NBA clearly worse than the Knicks.Portland’s combination of ownership disputes, arena problems, and roster instability make last year’s Knicks fiasco look like a well-run operation. When he escaped a Cleveland team that was tanking in order to get in position to draft LeBron James, he played his best ball. It’s not unreasonable to expect that in leaving the Portland circus, Miles will return to that level of play. He must be aware that his next team is probably his last chance at being a significant player in the NBA.Also, what do the Knicks have to lose? A trade would involve Quentin Richardson, Maurice Taylor, or someone else at the end of the bench. Channing Frye, whom the Blazers should have little room for, is the only untouchable on the Knicks roster. The Chicago Bulls, a team most pundits project to win 50 games next season, will likely exercise their option to switch draft picks with New York next spring, and the Knicks will only have a mid-level exception to offer free agents until 2009, so the window to add new talent to this team is very, very narrow.As presently constructed, the Knicks should vie for the final playoff seed this year and maybe next. Although that would mark a nice improvement for a team that went 23–59 last season, management should have its sights set higher.Lastly, this is a different type of acquisition for the Knicks. When the Knicks added the contracts of Anfernee Hardaway, Malik Rose, Antonio Davis, Jalen Rose, and Taylor to their payroll, they were serving as a dumping ground for other team’s unwanted, overpaid, past-their-prime players. To lump Miles into that category, you have to believe that he peaked at age 22.Very few NBA players, barring major injury, peak so young. If the Knicks win the gamble, they get a productive player who could help them get deep into the playoffs. If they lose, it’s just a different player at the end of the bench. If they trade Richardson and some salary to even out the differential, the cost to the 2009–10 cap (the next time the Knicks will have room) will be minimal.Webber at his worst has been a better player than Miles at his best, but he would be a bad pickup for two simple reasons: age and position. Webber will turn 34 in March and has two years and $42 million remaining on his contract. With Webber’s bad knees, these figure to be his final two seasons, and though he’s a safer short-term bet, the development time that he’ll cost by taking minutes away from Frye will leave the Knicks even further away from a title in two seasons than they are now.Webber is a talented and likeable player, but the Knicks need focus on something higher than the eighth seed of the Eastern Conference. In taking a gamble on Miles, they would have higher ground in mind. By taking on the twilight of Webber’s career, they would be treating the first round of the playoffs as if it were the Finals.mjohnson@nysun.com

Don’t Cringe: Miles Is Worth the Gamble

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