As everyone who has followed the NFL season knows, Sunday night’s showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots is the real Super Bowl. Everyone knows that, and whether it’s true or not, the AFC entry will be a solid favorite over the Chicago Bears or New Orleans Saints on February 4. They also know that Peyton Manning and the Colts have been the classic choke artists of this young century; they know it whether it’s true or not.

From where did the perception arise that Manning and the Colts are chokers? First and foremost, from the perception that the Colts, who, except for 2001, when they didn’t make the postseason, have lost every year in the playoffs since 1999, should have won at least a couple of those years. The assumption has almost always been that The Colts were the better team; after all, nobody accuses you of choking if you’re the underdog. What is the evidence for what Stephen Colbert might label the Colt’s chokiness?

In 2002, Tony Dungy’s first year as head coach at Indianapolis, his Colts lost horrendously, 41–0, to the Jets in the playoffs, one of the ugliest defeats in franchise history. In 2003 and 2004, however, it was a different matter: the Colts had to play New England in the postseason on the Patriots’ home field and lost both times. But were these losses really chokes? Or has history sufficiently shown that Bill Belichick’s Patriots were actually the better team in those years?

Last season, the Colts lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Divisional Playoff, but, again, does the loss qualify as a real choke? The Steelers won by just three, 21–18, and did, after all, go on to win the Super Bowl. And wasn’t it possible, just possible, that Dungy, and thus his team, might have been somewhat distracted by the suicide of Dungy’s son only three weeks before?

And what portion of these losses, choke or not, can be written off to Peyton Manning? In truth, Manning hasn’t been a great postseason passer, no matter how you look at the stats, but there have been some extenuating circumstances. From 1999 through last season’s loss to the Steelers, Manning’s Colts won just three of nine postseason games, averaging 21.8 points per game on offense. In contrast, Tom Brady’s Pats, from 2001 through the end of last season’s playoffs, were 10–1 with 23.5 points per game.

If you think that 1.7 points a game isn’t enough to account for the difference in the Colts’ and Pats’ postseason won-lost records, you’re right. In their nine games, the Colts allowed an average 23.7 points a game on defense, while in their nine games, the Pats allowed an average of just 16.8. Not to take anything away from Tom Brady, but you don’t have to be a football analyst to perceive quickly that New England’s chief strength in the postseason this past decade has been on defense, not offense. Or stated another way, the evidence indicates strongly that if the Colts and Patriots had swapped quarterbacks the last five seasons, the Patriots would still have won three Super Bowls and maybe more.

Nothing that Peyton Manning does this Sunday is going to change the history of the last few seasons or people’s perception of it. A win by the Colts, though, would go a long way toward promoting Peyton’s bid for football immortality. Manning has always been a much better passer than Tom Brady. Leaving aside issues of career totals — Manning has started in 48 more games than Brady and thrown 1,826 more passes — his quality numbers are better — not a lot better, but better.

Brady has a slight edge in interception percentage, 2.5% to 2.8%, while Peyton’s TD-to-pickoff ratio is a little better, 1.98-to-1 versus 1.89-to-1. Manning, though, has a substantial edge in the most important passing stat, yards per throw, 7.7 to 7.0. For what it’s worth, he has an even bigger edge over Brady in postseason YPA, 7.4 to 6.6. Unfortunately, though, that’s worth nothing in the eyes of fans who hang the whole responsibility of the win or loss on the quarterback.

So heavily does the memory of the Patriots’ postseason successes and the Colts’ failures dominate our image of the two quarterbacks that many seem to have forgotten that it’s Manning’s Colts who have won their last two regular season meetings — rather easily, in fact, 40–21 near the end of the 2005 season and 27–20 last November 5, both times on the Pats’ home field in Foxboro. In both games, Brady was pretty much contained by the Colts’ defense while Manning passed the Patriots dizzy. Analysts are going nuts trying to guess what X’s and O’s Bill Belichick is going to come up with to confuse Manning this Sunday, but it may not matter what he tries: The indications are that by now, Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy have seen all the rabbits that Belichick is capable of pulling out of his cap.

On the contrary, this time it’s the Colts who may have some new tricks. Indianapolis’s defense is among the league’s smallest, but it’s also one of the quickest, and in recent weeks Dungy has found ways to shore up the Colts’ biggest weakness, run defense. In two playoff games, Indianapolis has allowed just 3.4 yards a carry after allowing 5.3 during the regular season. The Patriots don’t have all that great a rushing attack, anyway. This game is going to be settled in the air, as it should be.

Colts 30, Patriots 21.

Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”