Don’t Look Now – Overpaid, Overrated Star Headed for N.Y.

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So … the Knicks are thinking about dealing for Orlando’s Steve Francis in exchange for Jamal Crawford, Penny Hardaway, and either Nate Robinson, Trevor Ariza, or David Lee. Really? Isiah Thomas is interested in an overrated, overpaid, over-entitled faux star? You don’t say. The only part puzzling me is that I thought Isiah had already acquired all the guys like that. What took him so long to discover Francis?


Needless to say, this move would be Classic Isiah, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. To see why, let’s run through the checklist of every Isiah move of the past two years and see if this one is any different:


IS IT GLAMOROUS? Check. Francis was the second player taken in the 1999 draft and a three-time All-Star who has provided many high-profile highlights over the years. Isiah can proudly sit at the news conference and say, “See, everyone, look at the big fish I reeled in.”


DOES IT MAKE THE TEAM MORE DYSFUNCTIONAL? Check. Francis is a three-time All-Star, but don’t blame the coaches – it was the fans who kept voting him in. Stevie looks great on Sports-Center, but his reputation far outpaces his production. He’s a career 43% shooter who averages nearly four turnovers a game for his career, and his production has diminished as his chief asset, quickness, erodes. Francis has averaged less than 17 points per game in two of the past three seasons after scoring at least 18 in each of his first four.


But Francis still thinks he’s The Man and earned himself a suspension in Orlando earlier this year when he started openly mailing in games because he was upset at a lack of touches. Yes, you read that correctly – a point guard was upset because he didn’t have the ball enough. Have fun with that one, Larry.


It’s not like it’s an isolated incident either – Francis begged his way out of Vancouver without ever playing a game and earned a suspension while with the Rockets for blowing off a team flight so he could go to the Super Bowl.


WILL IT TAKE ON A BAD CONTRACT? Check. Francis makes $48 million over the next three seasons and won’t be a free agent until 2009. The Knicks wouldn’t be able to get under the cap until at least that date. On the other hand, with some strategic contract dumping and no Francis trade, it’s possible for the Knicks to be under the cap by the end of 2007.They just need to trade Marbury, Crawford, or Quentin Richardson for an expiring contract. Normally, that’s what 14-37 teams do.


IS THE NEW PLAYER A BAD FIT? Check. In Francis and Marbury, the Knicks would have two point guards who both need the ball in their hands to thrive. Neither is a good enough outside shooter to stretch opposing defenses, which will allow teams to zone the Knicks with impunity. Meanwhile, having two shoot-first guards would further restrict the touches of Channing Frye and Eddy Curry – the team’s two highest-percentage shooters. Also, Francis or Marbury would give up three inches every night to the opposing shooting guard.


DOES IT FAIL TO ANSWER A NEED? Check. When he hasn’t been devising bizarre lineups, Larry Brown has spent most of the past six months whining about his lack of a true point guard. So the answer is to get Francis? The guy Orlando wanted to move to shooting guard because he’s so bad at involving others, has such a low assist rate, and is so turnover prone?


DOES ISIAH UNDERVALUE WHAT HE’S GIVING UP? Check. Crawford’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating, my per minute rating of a player’s statistical production) this year is nearly as good as Francis’s, and was last year, too. Given that Crawford is three years younger, makes half as much, and doesn’t immediately begin pouting any time somebody else gets more touches, which guy would you rather have on your team for the next three years?


As for Lee, Robinson, and Ariza, this gets back to the whole denial thing. The Knicks aren’t very good and probably won’t be for quite a while. So why would they give up one of their best young commodities? I know Larry Brown thinks very little of Ariza, but the fact is, he’s only 20 and might be the best athlete on the team. Similarly, Robinson has Vinnie Johnson potential if he’s used as an energizer off the bench, and on a per-minute basis Lee is one of the best rebounders in the game. These are the kinds of guys you try to acquire when you’re rebuilding, not give away.


So celebrate, Knicks fans, because this is the icing on the cake, the piece de resistance. This trade might make the team marginally better in the short term – congratulations, you’ll be 24-58 instead of 22-60 – but certainly much worse in the long term. And a year from now, the Knicks will be pondering how to trade Francis – provided they can find somebody even more overrated, with an even worse contract.


There’s still time to pull the plug on this thing, of course, so let’s hope the Knicks do so. And while they’re at it, how about pulling the plug on Isiah’s phone? He’s made more than enough bad trades already. The saddest part of all is that even with a deal this silly, he can hardly make the Knicks any worse.



Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.


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