Drawing Conclusions
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
LEIPZIG, Germany – There were plenty of sighs of relief heard around the world last Friday as the World Cup draw proceeded in this former East German city. Various famous ex-soccer players drew little balls out of plastic pots, and each of the 32 finalists discovered who it would be playing in the tournament’s first round.
From England, from Brazil, from Spain, from Mexico, from France, and from hosts Germany – six of the eight seeded teams – came huge gusts of satisfaction as all were drawn into comparatively easy groups (a first- or second place finish in the four-team groups ensures a second-round spot).
The draw was not kind to the unseeded Americans, who were drawn with Italy, the Czech Republic, and Ghana. Speaking to the press after the dire truth was known, coach Bruce Arena managed to keep smiling, but it was a querulous smile, one that barely masked his concern that America had not come off well. “This is a group with some very good teams …we have our hands full,” he said, smiling all the while.
Arena diverted the press for a moment, talking about his Italian family background. “It’s nice in terms of heritage,” he said, “but I’m not sure how nice it is in terms of playing Italy on the field.”
It won’t be nice, for sure. The Italians, world champions in 1934, 1938, and 1982,have shown over and over that they are masterful at tournament play, at the pacing and timing necessary to triumph in the hectic schedule of seven high-pressure games played within a month. The are, as usual, among the favorites.
As for the Czech Republic – the Americans’ first opponent on June 12, 2006 in Gelsenkirchen – it is currently rated by FIFA as the no. 2 team in the world. So America has ended up in exactly the type of group everyone wanted to avoid: one containing two strong European teams.
Ghana is playing in its first World Cup; its coach is a Serbian, Ratomir Dujkovic, who gave us a dreamy version of the country’s ambitions: “If we get through the first round, it will feel like being world champions.”
A few yards from the modestly ambitious Dujkovic stood Czech coach Karel Bruckner. The 65-year-old, white-haired Bruckner, looking more like a symphony orchestra conductor than a soccer coach, exuded the serenity that age brings. His smile was ever-present as he told us to write down “Italy is the favorite,” then immediately added that both Ghana and America could surprise. Asked what he knew about the American players, Bruckner’s arms spread, his palms turned up, his smile widened, and he said nothing.
When Italian coach Marcello Lippi was asked for his comments about the Americans, whether there was anyone he feared, he did not smile. He lectured the questioner: “Listen … a national team coach must not fear any player of any team.” Okay, but could he name the American players he knew? “Names? Names?” he replied testily,” I don’t name names,” and hurriedly moved away.
It was clear. The coaches were not highly informed about their opponents; a lot of tape-watching will be going on between now and next June 6, when Germany kicks off the tournament against Costa Rica.
The small central American country can hardly be considered one of Germany’s toughest opponents, but German star Michael Ballack is not necessarily overjoyed by that, having gone on record saying Germany plays better against stronger teams and is prone to slip up against weaker ones. But the German group – which also includes Poland and Ecuador – is by general consent one of the weakest. Not that the German coach Jurgen Klinsmann could allow himself to say that, but his “It could have been worse,” came close.
Brazil, France, Spain, and England all have groups that, in Klinsmann’s splendid word, are “doable.” All four countries should advance to the second round without too much exertion. But again, no one is admitting anything.
England coach Sven Goran Eriksson – having seen his team grouped with Paraguay, Sweden, and Trinidad & Tobago (which the bookmakers rank as the weakest team in the tournament, a 1,000-to-1 outsider) – kept a straight face while opining “It is not a weak group,” then echoed Klinsmann with “It could have been worse.”
Surveying his three opponents – Croatia, Australia, and Japan – Brazil coach Carlos Alberto Parreira remarked, “Technically, you could say that it is an easy group for Brazil,” and added quickly, “But it is nothing of the sort.” One of his players, defender Juan, came out with a perfect piece of fence-straddling: “It’s not easy and it’s not difficult.”
A similar fear of counting one’s chickens before the hatching came from Mexico coach Ricardo LaVolpe, who admitted delight that his group – Iran, Angola, and Portugal – was one of only two (Brazil’s was the other) that contained only one European team. But he recovered quickly enough to stress that, “For me, there are no easy opponents.”
The fear of taking opponents too lightly obviously hangs heavily over France, which went to the 2002 World Cup as champions, was beaten in its first game by unfancied Senegal, and did not make it out of the first round. France’s three group opponents for next year – Switzerland, Togo, and South Korea – are hardly formidable, but French coach Raymond Domenech was having none of it. “I’m already hearing talk of this being a weak group. Remember Senegal in 2002” was his warning.
As for Spain, its coach, Luis Aragones, was refreshingly blunt: “It was a good draw for us,” he said, after ending up with Ukraine, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia. But so often has Spain underachieved and faded badly in recent World Cup history, that hardly anyone makes predictions about its performances any more.
And so to the inevitable Group of Death. There is always, has to be, an impossibly difficult group. It could be the Americans’ group, but the more likely candidate is Group C, with Argentina, the Netherlands, Serbia & Montenegro, and Ivory Coast. Everyone wanted to avoid the Dutch – widely regarded as the strongest of the unseeded teams – while Serbia & Montenegro had finished ahead of Spain in its qualifying group. The Argentine assistant coach Hugo Tocalli repeated, over and over again, that no, this was not the Grupo de la Muerte, just “a difficult group.”
To everyone else, it looked pretty deadly. Even so, Argentina should join the other seven seeded teams in the second round. Along with them should go, could go, may go … Poland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Switzerland, and Ukraine. Which would leave Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico as the only non-European teams in the final 16.