Dunn, Dye Best of Thin Trade Class

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The New York Sun

What was once a flurry of big name swaps and contract dumps has become a much quieter stretch on the baseball calendar in July. The blockbuster swaps of seasons past have been replaced with low impact deals to bolster bullpens and benches. But while July 31 and the days leading up to it may not see much activity in 2007, there are a few name players who could be on the move.

Although he finished fifth in the MVP vote in 2006, the Chicago White Sox’s Jermaine Dye has fallen back to earth hard this year. It was expected that his .315 AVG/.385 OBA /.622 SLG line would drop to something near PECOTA’s forecasted .286/.354/.525, much closer to his established career norms. He is not hitting home runs anywhere near as often — only one in every 19.4 at-bats, against last year’s 12.3 — and is instead hitting infield flies and popping up in the shallow outfield at a much higher frequency, hurting his power numbers and batting average. Dye is also missing some of his pull-power from last year’s campaign, instead pulling the ball on the ground between third base and shortstop. 28% of his balls in play find their way to that spot on the diamond, and he is hitting just .200 when he does. It could be worse. Although he is not grounding out to the first base side anywhere nearly as often, he’s hitting just .083 on those balls. Liners correlate with hits better than any other ball in play, so if Dye could start to hit more line drives — the way he has in past seasons — he could improve his numbers across the board and hit something around .280/.340/.515 the rest of the way, close to PECOTA’s initial projection.

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ Eric Byrnes may be moved easily due to his defensive abilities — he’s above average in the corners, and passable in center — but his bat may not bring the expected offensive boost given his first-half performance. Historically, Byrnes is a terrible second-half player, posting acumulative .244/.297/.404 line in 2004–2006 after the All-Star break. Even though he’s improved against right-handers so far this year — an 859 OPS in 307 at-bats this year after 2004–2006’s poor 701 — his line could stand to see some adjustment. Given the low number of line drives that Byrnes hits, his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is well above where it should be. If you adjust his performance for that, you get a much more Byrnes-like .259/.321/.440. This also makes more sense when you note his drop in power production (a 35-point drop in Isolated Power from last year) and you see his 987 OPS in May is his only above-average month so far.

Chances are good that Byrnes has been kept afloat by his great May, and will continue to produce less value as the year progresses. Now that contract talks have broken off with the Diamondbacks — who have outfield prospects Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez, as well as Carlos Quentin waiting for a second chance — it will be interesting to see if anyone bites on this first half overachiever before the deadline.

With the Pittsburgh Pirates picking up Cesar Izturis from the division rival Chicago Cubs, rumors that incumbent shortstop Jack Wilson is on his way out of town have picked up steam. Wilson is not a rental player such as many others dangled at the deadline, since he’s signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010 attached to the contract. Finding a team who wants a light-hitting shortstop at $7.4 million per annum for three years could be problematic. Never much of a hitter (except for in 2004, when his BABIP was roughly 40 points higher than his career rate), Wilson has posted a terrible line, with just a .306 on-base percentage and an ISO of only .095 in 2007. The only plus he brings to the table is his superior defense, as he is currently nine Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) for the season.

When you are as much a replacement-level hitter as Wilson is, even slick fielding isn’t enough to keep you productive overall. Among shortstops with 150 plate appearances, Wilson ranks 26th in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), directly ahead of his new competition for the job, Izturis. Given that shortstop is one of the only positions where almost all of the contenders are set at, Wilson may not find a new home with a team that is expected to play in October.

The real prize at the deadline is the Cincinnati Reds’ Adam Dunn. The main sticking point in a Dunn deal is that he’s only guaranteed to stay with his new club for two months, since his option for 2008 dissolves if he is dealt. Despite this, he is one of those rare players who may make a difference at the end of the season and in the playoffs, thanks to his immense power and renowned patience at the plate. Dunn has averaged a homer every 14.2 at-bats over his career, and has 242 more walks than singles in his career.

The best-case scenario for Dunn is to end up on an American League team where he can fill in as a designated hitter, but National League teams could use the offensive boost he provides as well. Dunn has also fixed some of his issues from last year. Despite grounding out and striking out often, he’s started to hit the ball to center with authority. A total of 34% of Dunn’s balls in play head towards center field, where he has 12 homers and a .545 batting average. What may be most important for a team acquiring Dunn is the fact that he tried to answer his critics with his performance on the field, attempting to make more contact, stay in better shape, and even steal a few bases. Dunn is currently eight for 10 in stolen base attempts, and should enter double digits for the first time since 2002, when he swiped 19 bags. It will be interesting to see if the Reds sit on Dunn at the deadline in order to force his 2008 option to vest, and instead deal him this winter at a higher price for a full year’s duties as opposed to the two-month rental he otherwise represents.

Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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