In the AFC West, touchdowns are more common than lobbyists in the halls of Congress. But while the offensive numbers coming out of this division are no surprise, the team that is leading the offensive barrage is. San Diego has accomplished this season’s most exciting turnaround and Kansas City its most bewildering. Denver, meanwhile, is consistent in its inconsistency, and Oakland, despite its better judgment, has in fact sent players onto the field for nine games.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-3)

We’re all familiar with the Drew Brees story. Left as a lame duck after the Chargers drafted his replacement, he has turned his career around with one of the greatest contract years in sports history. Brees has an obscene ratio of 18 touchdowns to only three interceptions, and only Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper have a higher passer rating than Brees’s 108.7 (his 2004 rating was 67.5).

The real MVP of this offense, however, is tight end Antonio Gates, the former Kent State basketball star who went undrafted out of college. My play-by-play breakdown shows that Gates has been worth approximately 26.2 points more to the San Diego offense than a replacement tight end (say, Cam Cleeland). In fact, Gates has been more valuable than every single wide receiver except Terrell Owens and Hines Ward. He is the main reason San Diego has sharply improved its third-down conversion rate this season, and that improvement is the main engine behind the 6-3 record.

It’s been a tough year for franchise running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who has struggled with a groin pull and dropped from 5.3 yards to 3.8 yards per carry. Backup Jesse Chatman has picked up the slack with a 7.2 yards per carry average, and if the bye week gave Tomlinson the rest he needed to get back to full strength, the Chargers will be even more dangerous.

One question remains: Will bad defense end the Chargers’ Cinderella season before they reach the ball? Not necessarily. San Diego has been one of the NFL’s best teams against the run, and they’ve been improving against the pass as well; their last three games were the team’s strongest defensive performances this year.

DENVER BRONCOS (6-3)

The accepted narrative in Denver says that every year coach Mike Shanahan sticks an unknown into his backfield and comes out with a 1,000-yard rusher (this year, former fullback Reuben Droughns). But that isn’t the only recurring plot thread in Denver.

Last year, the Broncos rid themselves of inconsistent quarterback Brian Griese, who despite strong numbers failed to lead Denver past the first round of the playoffs. His replacement, Jake Plummer, put up strong numbers in 2003,but has been inconsistent and couldn’t lead Denver past the first round of the playoffs.

Every year, the Broncos produce a defense that is above average against both the run and the pass, but outstanding against neither. And every year the Broncos have good placekicking and terrible punting. Denver fans can be forgiven if they think their team has been running in circles since John Elway’s retirement. At least Denver’s circles pass through the playoffs most of the time.

Will the second half bring more of the same? The good news is that Droughns has stabilized the ground game after the failures of Quentin Griffin, and the Broncos have an easier schedule than the Chargers. The bad news is that the defense is on a significant downward trend. Over the first six games, Denver allowed the opposition 4.3 yards per play; over the past three games, that jumped to 6.1 yards per play.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-6)

It is a bit of an understatement to say that the Chiefs’ 2004 season hasn’t gone as planned. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, which break down every play of the season and compare each one to league average, the Chiefs should be one of the top teams in the NFL. From this statistical standpoint, they rank higher than 15 teams with better records.

An offense like this should be blowing teams away early, but the Chiefs have done this only once, a 56-10 rout of Atlanta. Instead, they’ve played close game after close game, and when the chips are down, the Chiefs suffer from poor luck, poor decisions, and poor defense.

The Chiefs lost to Carolina in large part because of a celebration penalty. They lost to Houston by throwing a red zone interception that was returned for a TD, and because Kris Brown hit a 50-yard field goal. Against Jacksonville, Lawrence Tynes missed a field goal and an extra point. The Broncos racked up 497 yards against New Orleans but scored only 20 points.

The unstoppable Kansas City offense was finally supposed to be complemented by an adequate defense this year, thanks to the return of Gunther Cunningham, who ran the league-topping Chiefs defenses of the late 1990s. But even Cunningham’s recipes could not turn lemons into Derrick Thomas-quality lemonade. Pass defense has been satisfactory, but the Chiefs’ inability to pursue or tackle turns any run that gets past the front four into a long-distance scamper. Only Minnesota’s defense has performed worse when a game is within a touchdown in the second half.

No discussion of Kansas City’s woes is complete without a mention of special teams. The Chiefs had the NFL’s second-best special teams in 2003 and the second-worst in 2004. Last season, kick returner Dante Hall was the face of a new wave of multipurpose NFL stars. This season, Hall’s face is appearing on milk cartons throughout Missouri.

You never know when Kansas City will suddenly flip the switch and begin winning games like their statistics suggest they should. A win Monday night at home against the Patriots and their battered secondary would be no shock. But the Chiefs need seven straight wins to even sniff the playoffs, and they’ll be left wondering how they ran football’s most dominant offense for three years and ended up with a solitary playoff loss to show for it.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-6)

On September 26, Oakland beat Tampa Bay in a nationally televised game nowhere near as close as the 30-20 score. The Oakland offensive line pushed Tampa’s vaunted defensive front at least 3 yards backwards on every play. Kerry Collins led the Raiders to four scores and a missed field goal on his first five drives after replacing the injured Rich Gannon. While the legendary Tampa defense let Collins throw at will, the Oakland defense had Tampa quarterback Brad Johnson completely flustered.

When NFL Films produces the 2004 Raiders highlight film, it will consist solely of that game. At that point the Raiders were 2-1 and looked to have returned from their 4-12 exile of 2003. But the team of September 26 has since been replaced by a team that gives Al Davis nightmares.

Collins’s abysmal play has left him with the lowest passer rating of any quarterback who has started half his team’s games. Wide receiver Jerry Porter, expected to be a 2004 breakout, has petered out. High-profile free agent Warren Sapp has done nothing to disrupt opposing quarterbacks and has recorded a meager half sack. Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson has no interceptions and seems to have forgotten how to cover receivers. Their kick returns are the worst in the league.

Can the Raiders take anything positive from this season? Well, wide receivers Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel show great potential as deep threats. Offensive lineman Robert Gallery, the second overall pick in last year’s draft, is as good as advertised. But it will take a few more standout youngsters before the Raiders can return to respectability.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football-Outsiders.com