Before we begin, a word of warning: Game 1 of a Nets series has been a strong contrarian indicator of late. Last season they lost their playoff opener to Indiana in the first round, only to rally and beat the Pacers in a grueling six-game series. Then in the second round they beat Miami fairly convincingly in the series opener. Unfortunately, it was the last game they won all season.

With that out of the way, we may now commence with the whooping and hollering. The Nets got the one win they needed in Toronto on Saturday, knocking off the Raptors 96–91 behind 28 points from Richard Jefferson. Now they can advance to the second round by holding serve in Continental Airlines Arena in Games 3,4, and 6.

Of course that’s a risky way to operate. It’s not like the Nets are invincible at home — they lost there 17 times this year — so realistically they probably need to win twice in Toronto to take the series.

Tonight’s Game 2 in Toronto, then, would seem to be as good a time as any to grab that second road win. The Raptors are on the ropes following their Game 1 defeat, so perhaps the Nets can deal a knockout punch to the playoff novices before they get their sea legs.

To do so, New Jersey has a lot of business to take care of from Game 1. Let’s review the highlights and lowlights and what they mean for this evening:

The RJ bounceback: Did anyone else notice that play in the first half when Jefferson streaked down the right wing, dribbled baseline, went under the rim, and dunked it righthanded from the other side? That was vintage Jefferson: The explosive, open-court terror that Nets fans remember from past seasons. He didn’t do it with the same explosion he used to, but a part of me still thought “welcome back” after the play.

Thanks to an ankle injury, Jefferson was probably about 75% of the player he was the past two seasons. It seems as if he’s moved that closer to 90% of late. Saturday’s 28-point effort was his second-highest total of the season, and three of his top four efforts have come in April.

He did it against a darned good defender, too The Raptors switched defensive ace Anthony Parker onto him for most of the game, after Vince Carter struggled early, but Jefferson got his points anyway.

If Jefferson can be a consistent 20-point guy in this series, the Nets suddenly become a very tough team to beat. He showed he’s capable of the occasional outburst in Game 1; now the question is whether his ankle will allow him to perform consistently at that level over the course of the series. Keep a close eye on RJ in Game 2, and the rest of the series for that matter — he’s the most important player in the series.

Can Vince get untracked?: The Canadians didn’t seem particularly welcoming to the Nets’ star player, wearing baby bibs with his no. 15 and booing him nearly every time he touched the ball. And Carter rewarded the crowd with a miserable night, shooting 5-for-19 and sitting much of the third quarter with foul trouble.

Oddly, the Raptors guarded Carter with Joey Graham rather than defensive ace Anthony Parker, but perhaps the Raps saw he was off his game. Regardless, Carter simply has to do better than this, because New Jersey won’t win often with him performing so poorly.

However, give Carter credit for keeping up his defensive intensity even as his offense sputtered. Three different times Carter raced out to block a perimeter jump shot, and he had several other good challenges on Toronto attempts. This is probably the most marked change in his game since he came to New Jersey; he didn’t seem to give a fig about defense when he was a Raptor.

The bench delivers: New Jersey’s reserves scored 29 points on Saturday. This is not a typo. Toronto came in with the more vaunted second unit, but the Nets’ was far superior on Saturday and, other than Jefferson, was the major reason they won.

Boki Nachbar led the way with 16 points, continuing his strong run of late-season play — do you realize this was his fifth-straight game with at least 13 points? What kind of odds could you have received on that in November? Marcus Williams and Josh Boone also provided decent efforts off the pine, while an unusually active Antoine Wright chipped in six points — about six more than anyone expected — in 15 minutes.

As an added plus, the Nets’ matchups helped keep Toronto’s bench off the court. The Raptors have three small guards — T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon, and Juan Dixon — and like to play at least two of them for extended chunks of the game. But since one of them has to guard Carter or Jefferson in such an arrangement, it’s tough for Toronto to line up that way against New Jersey. As a result, Calderon only played 21 minutes despite performing brilliantly, and Dixon played just 15.

I do expect we’ll see that lineup (either Calderon-Dixon, Ford-Dixon, or Ford-Calderon) more in Game 2, but with a twist — Toronto will play zone if Carter and Jefferson are on the floor. That creates an opportunity for New Jersey, who ranked eighth in the NBA in 3-point shooting, especially if Nachbar is out there at power forward.

Putting the kibosh on Bosh:

The Nets carry two big defensive worries into tonight’s contest. The first is that the Raptors’ quick point guards had their way with Jason Kidd. Ford and Calderon combined for 34 points and 10 assists, providing most of the positive offensive moments for Toronto. Look for the Raptors to continue attacking New Jersey with screen-and-roll plays for those two tonight.

But perhaps the bigger worry is Toronto star Chris Bosh. Bosh was limited to 33 minutes on Saturday by foul trouble, but he had his way with New Jersey’s bigs when he was on the court. The Nets lined up Jason Collins against him — I had been expecting Mikki Moore to get the call — but Bosh seemed more than up to the challenge against him, getting free for jumpers by making jab fakes at the slower Collins that forced him to react.

Bosh finished with 22 points and earned 10 free-throw attempts, including a series of scores in crunch time when Toronto mounted a desperate rally. If Jefferson is the top offensive key, Bosh is the top defensive one. Stop him and you stop the Raptors.

Alas, that’s easier said than done, which is why I expect Toronto to prevail tonight. In fact, New Jersey could play well and still lose. The Raps aren’t such pushovers that they’ll drop two straight on their own court, and I expect their secondary players to perform better than they did on Saturday (particularly rookie Andrea Bargnani).

If so, it makes for a very interesting weekend at the Swamp — Games 3 and 4 are here on Friday and Sunday. Meanwhile, Nets fans must hope the contrarian indicators don’t carry over from year to year.

jhollinger@nysun.com