Offense drives television ratings, and NBC could not have asked for a better wild card doubleheader than the one they’re getting on Saturday: four teams with dynamic offensive stars and crumbling defenses.

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NFL broadcasts are promoted with simple, easy-to-hype storylines. Most of the time, these storylines focus on meaningless personality issues and dumb down the complicated strategic battle on the field.

This is not one of those times.

The Colts have the best offense in the league, but the Chiefs love to run, and the Colts defense couldn’t stop the run if you let them put 20 guys on the field. That’s it. That’s the whole game.

Kansas City’s Larry Johnson set a new NFL record by carrying the ball 416 times this year. He started slow, in part because Kansas City made a number of changes on the offensive line, but he averaged 4.5 yards per carry over the final 11 games. He’s both large and agile, able to pound into defenders to gain extra yardage or nimbly cut back into an open lane.

Johnson presents the worst possible matchup for a Colts defense that allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only the 1996 New Orleans Saints allowed more yards per carry.

Everything people say about the Colts defense is accurate. They are undersized. They cannot wrap-up on tackles. Defensive end Dwight Freeney is a great pass-rusher whose spin moves take him out of every running play, and teams run into the hole Freeney leaves behind. True, true, all true.

The Colts are counting on the return of run-stuffing safety Bob Sanders to help shore up their defense, but he may not have the effect the Colts are hoping for. In the four games this year when Sanders was healthy, the Colts allowed 5.6 yards per carry — worse than the 12 games with Sanders on the sidelines.

However, just as Johnson is a terrible matchup for the Colts defense, so too is Peyton Manning a terrible matchup for the Chiefs defense.

Kansas City’s defense played reasonably well over the first few weeks, but they’ve been one of the worst in the league since the middle of the season. Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) — which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent — rank Kansas City 30th on defense since Week 10.

The Chiefs primarily play a man coverage scheme, which is a problem because they only have one good cornerback, Patrick Surtain. Veteran Ty Law is a shadow of his former self, and nickel back Lenny Walls is subpar as well.

The Chiefs rank fourth in DVOA against no. 1 receivers, but 25th against no. 2 receivers and last against slot receivers. And no quarterback is better than Peyton Manning when it comes to patiently going through his reads and finding the open man among multiple targets.

The Colts will also run the ball with Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, and the Chiefs have allowed 4.6 yards per carry since Week 10 — not as bad as the Colts, but not good either.

If the Texans can beat the Colts by running the ball and limiting Manning’s possessions, the Chiefs can do it, too. But it’s not likely.

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A month ago, the Dallas Cowboys were the hottest team in the NFL. Four straight wins put them on top of the NFC East with an 8-4 record. The defense was strong, stuffing the run and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The offense was firing on all cylinders, and it seemed like quarterback Tony Romo could do no wrong.

Then the Cowboys went 1–3 over the last four weeks, gave up the division lead, and backed into the playoffs in an NFC that couldn’t field six teams with winning records.

The negatives first appeared in the Cowboys’ 23–20 win over the Giants in Week 13. Until that game, the Cowboys had given up 20 or more points in four games. Including the Giants game, the Cowboys gave up at least 20 points in all five of their December games.

The run defense has softened somewhat, but the real problem is the passing game; suddenly the Dallas secondary can’t stop anybody. The Cowboys allowed just 5.7 net yards per pass through 12 weeks, but 7.8 net yards per pass in the last five games.

Dallas isn’t just falling apart on defense, however; Romo’s early stardom faded as opponents learned his weaknesses. Romo gets rattled and can make terrible decisions under pressure. This problem was exacerbated by his early success because he got used to making mistakes without feeling the consequences.

Romo averaged 8.6 net yards per pass through Week 12, but he’s getting just 6.7 net yards per pass since, taking more sacks and throwing more interceptions.

All of this sounds like a recipe for Dallas to go one-and-done, except for one thing: The Seahawks have the same problems, only worse.

Seattle may be the first Super Bowl loser to return to the playoffs since 2000, but that doesn’t make them a good team. The Seahawks are 9–7 thanks to an easy schedule and good fortune in a few close wins. DVOA ranks them 27th on offense and 20th on defense.

Seattle’s offense was supposed to rebound when running back Shaun Alexander and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck returned from injuries, but that never happened. Week 12 was the first time in two months that both players were in the lineup. At that point in the season, the Seahawks averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 5.5 net yards per pass. In the last six games, with Hasselbeck and Alexander both healthy, the Seahawks have averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 5.4 net yards per pass.

The offense has not improved because the injury problems go deeper than just those two players. Injured players have been shuffled in and out of the offensive line all year. Two of Hasselbeck’s top three wideouts, Darrell Jackson and D.J. Hackett, may miss this week’s game with injuries.

And this is nothing compared to the injuries in the secondary. The Seahawks will face the great Cowboys receivers with three of their top four cornerbacks out. Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens will be covered by rookie Kelly Jennings and Jordan Babineaux, who was so bad last year as a cornerback that the Seahawks had converted him to safety.

The Seahawks pride themselves on having a particularly strong homefield advantage, but the Cowboys are healthier on defense and better on offense. Despite their late-season struggles, they are the most likely of this weekend’s road teams to move on.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.