Entering this season, the NFC South looked like it would provide the best divisional race in football, since it was home to the past two NFC champions and the most exciting player in football, Michael Vick. As often happens in the NFL, expectations did not prove correct. Carolina and Tampa Bay have struggled, and the Falcons have built a three-game division lead not because of Vick, but despite him. Here’s a look at how the teams stack up halfway through the season:

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-2)

Only two teams in the NFC have six wins or more, and the Falcons should feel very grateful to be among them. According to DVOA – Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a comprehensive breakdown of a team’s performance adjusted for situation and opponent – the Falcons are really an average team with some lucky breaks, and trends don’t point to them improving over the second half of the year.

Atlanta’s success so far has been driven by the run, both on offense and defense. According to Football Outsiders numbers, Vick has been worth 13.2 points more than a replacement level quarterback when he runs with the ball – more than twice the value of the league’s second-best running QB. But it isn’t all Vick; for the second straight year, the running back tandem of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett has been quietly effective.

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s defense has allowed only 3.1 yards per carry – if you count only seven games. That eighth game was a 56-10 debacle in which Kansas City ran up 271 yards on the ground with eight rushing TDs. The Falcons rebounded the next game, allowing the well-regarded Denver running game only 68 yards, but the secondary collapsed and let Jake Plummer throw at will.

The declining defense is a worry, though not as much as Vick’s struggles. His difficulty adapting to the timing patterns favored by new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp have resulted in some very un-Vick-like performances: 115 passing yards and three turnovers against Arizona, 119 yards and two turnovers against K.C., 198 yards and four turnovers against Detroit.

In Atlanta’s last game, however, the Falcons seemed finally to step back from Knapp’s regimented scheme. They gave Vick more freedom to scramble and improvise, and he responded with 252 yards through the air and 115 more on the ground.

It would be a strange turn of events if the defense began to decline just as Vick finally got back on track. Perhaps by year’s end, after confounding experts with their improved defense and struggling quarterback, the Falcons will turn out to be the team everyone expected.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-5)

Projections based on midseason trends indicate that Tampa Bay, not Atlanta, will be this division’s best team going forward. The Bucs’ defense is playing well – if not at the level established during their run to the Super Bowl two years ago – and the offense has improved dramatically since Brian Griese took over as QB midway through a Week 5 win over New Orleans.

Yes, Brian Griese, the same QB who struggled through five horrible games in Miami last year. Through Tampa’s first four and a half games this season, Brad Johnson and Chris Simms averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt and an interception per game. Since Griese took over, he’s averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt with only one interception. Based on the DVOA metric (see table below), the Tampa passing game was 30th in the league over the first four weeks (-25.0% DVOA) and has been seventh in the league since (+34.2% DVOA).

Like San Diego’s Drew Brees, Griese has rejuvenated his career and, like Brees, was clearly written off too early. The Bucs have discovered that by running an offense that plays to Griese’s strengths – they are employing the same waggle/bootlegs that brought him so much success at Michigan – they can win. Griese won’t have six times as many TDs as interceptions when the season is over, but he should continue to manage an effective offense for a team that still wins primarily with defense.

Even if their improvement continues, the Bucs have no chance for the division title without a complete Atlanta collapse. But the NFC has a jumble of three-to-five-win teams jostling for the wild card. Thanks in part to an easy remaining schedule, Tampa will be in the thick of that race, and may have the inside track on winning a possible tiebreaker. Two of its losses are out of conference, as is its hardest remaining opponent, San Diego.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-5)

Through nine games of the 2004 season, the Saints have the best special teams in the NFL. John Carney has been the second-best kicker in the league, and Michael Lewis has been great on punt returns. Nevertheless, while special teams play is important, it is never a good sign when this is the only thing your team does well.

Every aspect of offense and defense has been poor, although the secondary stands out. Only Indianapolis has given up more passing yards this season.

If the New England Patriots are truly more then the sum of their parts, then the Saints are the anti-Patriots. Whereas New England wins without putting up big numbers, the Saints put up big numbers and rarely win. They have been able to win three times because, according to DVOA, they have played the league’s second-easiest schedule so far.

The Saints made very few roster changes last off-season; in fact, they’ve made very few roster changes over the past couple of off-seasons. Coach Jim Haslett went 10-6 in his first season, 2000, and the Saints have kept running the same plays with mostly the same players ever since in an attempt to replicate that one flash of glory. This stagnation has kept New Orleans from a Miami-like meltdown, but it also keeps them from a Pittsburgh-like renaissance. This franchise desperately needs to blow up the roster and start over.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-7)

Of course, while some teams blow up their own rosters in an attempt to turn things around, other teams have their rosters blown up by outside forces. Such is the case with the Panthers.

Many people expected that the defending NFC Champions were a one year wonder, but Carolina’s struggles have exceeded the most negative projections. The main culprit is an egregious string of injuries that has left quarterback Jake Delhomme flailing around like a one-man army.

The Panthers lost their top wide receiver, Steve Smith, in Week 1. Running back Stephen Davis has been slowed by a bad knee all year, and backups De-Shaun Foster and Rod Smart are both out for the season.

Things are even worse on defense. Tackle Kris Jenkins, the heart of the Panther defense, was lost for the year after four games. End Mike Rucker was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. Linebacker Dan Morgan has played at reduced effectiveness because of injury, as have cornerbacks Artrell Hawkins and Chris Gamble.

There is hope for the second half of the year, if an attempt to go 6-10 instead of 3-13 can represent hope. On a play-by-play basis, judged by DVOA, Carolina has actually played better than seven other teams this year despite their solitary win. They’ve played the fourth-hardest schedule in the league, but project to play the easiest schedule over the final eight games, with only one opponent currently over .500 (Atlanta) and a series of games inside their own division or against the stuggling NFC West.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com