Fall Classic Manufactures A New Class of Heroes
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The 2005 postseason seems to be a continuous tribute to unlikely heroes. During the NLDS, struggling Astros rookie Chris Burke ended Atlanta’s season with a walk-off home run in the 18th inning, but only after ace starter Roger Clemens threw three innings of relief. The ALCS saw disputed calls and back-to-back-to-back-to-back complete games send the Angels home. Sunday night, ordinarily dependable closer Brad Lidge surrendered his second game-winning home run of the postseason, this time to Chicago’s Scott Podsednik, who went 507 regular season at-bats without hitting one.
That the White Sox are now up 2-0 in the World Series may not be that unlikely, but how they arrived at this point certainly is. While a team of scrappy bunters and base stealers might make for a good storyline, the White Sox have simply been outslugging the playoff opposition, and the World Series has been no exception.
After scoring just 741 runs in the regular season (or 4.5 runs per game, ninth in the AL), the Sox are steamrolling over their playoff opponents, now averaging 5.9 runs per game; if the postseason version of their offense played 162 games, they’d score 955 runs, making them the best offense in the majors. Despite the increased slugging, the Sox are not drawing walks or working the count, meaning they don’t get on base unless they get a hit; with a strikeout pitcher like Oswalt on the mound for tonight’s Game 3, the Sox’ newfound ability to score runs could vanish in a hurry.
Meanwhile, the White Sox pitching, as strong as it was in the regular season, has gotten even stronger in the postseason. Allowing just 2.9 runs per game (down from 3.9 in the regular season), the Sox staff has made everyone forget that Houston employs three more famous pitchers.
What offense the Astros mustered against the Sox came from – again – unlikely sources. After hitting just .291 AVG/.325 OBA/.341 SLG in his rookie year, centerfielder Willy Taveras has been an extra-base hit machine in the Series, tallying two doubles and a triple in the first two games. He’s not going to keep that .543 SLG much longer, meaning Morgan Ensberg, who hit .283/.388/.557 in the regular season, is going to have to start hitting. Ensberg was 1-for-8 in Chicago, leaving five men on base in the process. Entering the series, the Astros looked to only have two hitters – Ensberg and Lance Berkman – who could really hurt you over the long haul. With Ensberg neutralized, the Astros have been reduced to an all-Berkman offense, supplemented by whoever happens to go 2-for-4. It might make for good drama, but it’s living dangerously in the most important week of the year.
Houston pitching, which allowed a major-league best 3.73 runs per game during the
regular season, was disappointing in Chicago. Leaving aside Roger Clemens’s early exit in Game 1,the regular-season dominance was nowhere to be found.
Manager Phil Garner curiously went with rookie Wandy Rodriguez in long relief after Clemens’s hasty departure, and Rodriguez proceeded to issue four walks to a normally impatient White Sox team; that he only surrendered one run is a credit more to the double plays turned behind him than any real success on his part. Replacing Clemens is no easy task, but Rodriguez betrayed the fact that the Astros have no Plan B at all; should Clemens miss his scheduled Game 5 start due to the sore hamstring that forced him from Game 1, the White Sox’ deeper rotation will become that much more formidable.
Astros fans have to feel comfortable with the series moving out of the rain and back to Houston, where the team went 53-28 in 2005. Oswalt is taking the hill fresh off a dominant performance against the Cardinals in the NLCS, and is the best (and last) hope for this team to claw back into contention. But even if the Astros ride Oswalt to a victory tonight, Chicago has the edge in the pitching matchups for Games 4 and 5.
While the White Sox rotation might not have the star power the Astros have in Clemens, Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte, the White Sox make up for it in consistency and depth. The Sox will send Freddy Garcia out to the mound for Game 4 to face converted outfielder Brandon Backe. Should Clemens not return, the Astros may have to fight off elimination in Gave 5 with Rodriguez, Ezequiel Astacio, or Pettitte on short rest. The odds are decidedly with Chicago, home field advantage or not.
But that doesn’t mean Houston will go without a fight. An all right-handed White Sox rotation in Games 3-5 means Berkman gets to hit from his stronger side and aim for the left field boxes; of the 13 home runs he hit in Houston this year, six landed in those seats, which can turn even the scrawniest infielder into a slugger for a night. Of course, the White Sox get the same boost to their offense, despite losing the designated hitter for three games.
From here on out, anyone can have two great games – or two bad ones – to completely change the tone of the series; such is the folly of trying to predict the outcome of individual games. Having said that, Chicago is obviously the overwhelming favorite going forward. But if the rest of the postseason follows from the script established so far, any thing can happen, and we’re likely to be surprised a few more times before a trophy gets handed out. Mr. Erhardt is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.