Last year at this time, everyone in the world of tennis had a pretty good indication as to how the clay court season would unfold for the top men in the game.

Before the official season even began, Rafael Nadal, then just 18,had played 13 matches on clay and won 12 of them, including two titles. This, it turned out, was a minor achievement compared to what Nadal would accomplish between April and early June: 26-1 and four titles, including the French Open, his first major. Match after match, the Spaniard proved himself an indomitable competitor, a man who would hustle, slide, and whip his left-handed forehand until he had either won or could no longer walk. By the time the French Open semifinals rolled around, Nadal’s reputation was such that many expected him to beat Roger Federer. Few were surprised when he did.

It’s April again, and Nadal remains the favorite from now until early June whenever he walks onto the court. But even he sees 2005 for what it was – a dream season likely never to be repeated by him or anyone else. In 2006, Nadal has played far less often, having taken longer than expected to recover from recurring pain in his right foot that he feared might end his career. So far this year, his record stands at 11-3 with one title (over Federer in Qatar). He has not played a match on clay since last fall and plans to enter four tournaments, plus the World Team Championship, leading up to the French Open.

By the end of this week, we should know a little more about how vulnerable Nadal might be. Both he and Federer start down the road to the French Open this week with a Masters Series event in Monte Carlo. Last year, Federer lost his second match of the season on these courts, to Frenchman Richard Gasquet. Nadal took down Gasquet and took home the win. If Nadal and Federer meet here, it would be a preview of the final that everyone hopes to see at Roland Garros in June.

Even if Nadal plays at the top of his game, this clay court season offers more opportunities for men who are unaccustomed to success on dirt (if you are an American professional tennis player since 1999, take notice). At this time last year, Nadal was 12-1 on clay and Gaston Gaudio, the French Open champion in 2004, was 10-1 with two titles. This year, Gaudio is suffering through a difficult season: 5-3 on clay and 8-6 overall.

Guillermo Coria, who should have won the French Open in 2004, has split his eight matches this year and hardly seems to be the relentless opponent he was two years ago. Juan Carlos Ferrero, the king of Paris and (for a moment) the world rankings in 2003, is 6-6 this year. Perhaps most important of all for those looking to pocket unexpected ranking points these next six weeks, Mariano Puerta, a finalist at last year’s French Open, has been banished from tennis for a doping violation. The Argentine went 15-5 during last year’s clay season and won a title in Morocco. Guillermo Canas, another solid clay player from Argentina, has been suspended for two years.

Several players should benefit from the weakened field. Spain’s Nicolas Almagro, who defeated Marat Safin in the semifinals of Valencia this weekend and went on to win his first title, is no fluke. The 20-year-old plays dogged tennis and should greatly improve upon last year’s clay season, when he posted a record of 5-7, including an upset of Safin in Rome and a second round loss to Federer in Paris.

Safin could begin to regain some ground, too. Then again, this can always be said of Safin – there’s no surface and no opponent he should fear when healthy (he sprained his ankle this weekend) and when he decides to put forth his best effort. One has a better chance of predicting the 2068 French Open champion than Safin’s results in the four tournaments he plans to play before Paris (including this week in Monte Carlo). We dare not speculate.

Tommy Haas has the footwork, speed, and steady strokes for clay, but he had to retire in the semifinals in Houston this weekend because of wrist pain. Nikolay Davydenko performed well on clay last year, though one never knows when his intense schedule – 30 tournaments in 2005, most on the tour – will catch up to him.

As for Federer, he remains the most dominant player in the world, having lost one match this year and won four titles, including the Australian Open. At 24, there are just two riddles he has been unable to solve: a Nadal topspin forehand that bounces over his backhand shoulder, and the French Open. With the clay field weaker than last year’s and the no. 2 ranked Nadal never to appear before a final, Federer’s chances are quite good. He plans to play three tournaments before Paris, and you can bet he’ll want to test himself against Nadal at least once in either Monte Carlo, Rome, or Hamburg. Only then might we get a sense of how different this year is from last.

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So far this year, women’s tennis has endured one misfortune after another. At the Australian Open final, one of the tour’s best players, Justine Henin-Hardenne, retired in the final owing to an upset stomach, causing a controversy that overshadowed the first major title for Amelie Mauresmo.

Maria Sharapova, the 2004 Wimbledon champion, recently endured some boisterous booing at the Nasdaq-100 Open, when she took several conspicuously timed bathroom breaks.

Serena Williams, the most talented woman in the world, shows no desire to play elite tennis anymore. Her ranking has slipped to no. 106 in the world, while her sister Venus, last year’s Wimbledon champion, is ranked no. 12. The once dominate duo have played a total of four matches this year, and both withdrew from last week’s Family Circle Cup.

Lindsay Davenport, the highest ranked American, continues to suffer from back pain.

This is no recipe for success, and the prospects for a recovery during the clay court season are not great. One woman, however, could give the women’s game a big lift by June: Martina Hingis. The 25-year-old Hingis remains the best story of 2006. Her patience and mastery of tactics are well suited to clay, yet the French Open remains the only Grand Slam event that she has never won (she reached the final in 1997 and 1999). With so many women struggling, Hingis should perform well these next few weeks. If she takes the title in Paris, the women’s game might find the antidote it so desperately needs.

tperrotta@nysun.com