Roger Federer fans, this is the year.

I’m not predicting that in two weeks Federer will win his first French Open title; I’m simply pointing out that the world no. 1 doesn’t have much time left to complete his grand slam collection. In August, Federer will celebrate his 27th birthday. Since the Open Era began in 1968, six French Open champions have been 27 or older. One of them, 34-year-old Andres Gimeno, won the title in 1972, when contract professionals were not allowed to play. Two others, Rod Laver (30 when he won in 1969) and Ken Rosewall (33 in 1968), are all-time greats, but they played in the early days of the Open Era when heavy topspin, the great modern weapon that forever changed clay-court tennis, wasn’t fashionable (and much more difficult to produce with the rackets and strings of that era). The other three — Thomas Muster (27 in 1995), Andre Agassi (29 in 1999), and Andres Gomez (30 in 1990) — won the title in a time more similar to the present day, but they did so only once.

Age isn’t the only reason to suggest that Federer ought to approach this year’s French Open with urgency. Luck is another. Unlike earlier in the year, when a sluggish Federer, suffering from mononucleosis, failed to defend his Australian Open title, Federer is now healthy and fit. He played plenty of clay-court matches (18) leading up to the tournament. He has a new coach, Jose Higueras, whose clay-court expertise is unrivaled. Most important, he’s been handed a dream draw. Rafael Nadal, the three-time defending champion, and Novak Djokovic, the Australian Open champion, are on the opposite side. Federer will have to play one of them at most. (If he’s extremely lucky, he won’t have to play either of them — seemingly impossible, but one never knows these things.)

Federer won’t face anyone else of note until the semifinals, in fact. The highest seed in his quarter of the draw is countryman Stanislas Wawrinka (no. 9). Wawrinka is enjoying his best season on the tour and his first move into the top 10. Still, it’s hard to imagine him causing Federer any trouble. The same can be said of Mario Ancic, the talented Croat whose comeback from mono continues apace. Though Ancic once reached the quarterfinals of this tournament, his attacking game (and slow feet) are not well-suited to clay. In the semifinals, Federer could face fourth seed Nikolay Davydenko, a fine clay-court player, but also a man not known for impressive victories at major tournaments (he’s never reached a major final) or for beating Federer (he’s 0–12 in his career, including a straight set defeat in last year’s French Open semifinals).

The rest of the men in Federer’s half of the draw are a collection of struggling former top players (Fernando Gonzalez, Ivan Ljubicic, Lleyton Hewitt), a dangerous clay-courter who has played tired tennis of late (Juan Carlos Ferrero), a struggling no. 5 seed (David Ferrer), and journeymen. The biggest worries might be three men who traditionally have not performed well at major events: Igor Andreev, the talented Russian whose forehand might be second to Nadal’s in terms of effectiveness on clay; Radek Stepanek, who defeated Federer in Rome, and Robin Soderling, the hard-serving, forehand-slugging Swede whose awkward style won him eight matches (four in singles and four in doubles) at last week’s World Team Championship in Germany. Federer could play Soderling in the fourth round; he’s never lost to Soderling, either (6–0).

Compare this to the path in front of Nadal, who as of yesterday had yet to finish his first match of the tournament because of rain delays. At the tail end of this event, Nadal might need to play Mikhail Youzhny (who has beaten Nadal four times), either David Nalbandian or Nicolas Almagro (both exceptional on clay), and then Djokovic in three consecutive rounds. If the rain continues, Nadal might find himself playing two of those matches on consecutive days. By the time the final Sunday arrives, he might be vulnerable, or as close to vulnerable he has ever been on clay.

That Federer and Nadal have such different paths in front of them says less about the randomness of draws than the peculiar state of the men’s game at this tournament. The field is not depleted, but it’s certainly lacking in talent, especially among the younger generation. Richard Gasquet, ever disappointing, has pulled out with a knee injury. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the Australian Open finalist, needs surgery on his knee and has withdrawn. Marcos Baghdatis lost in the first round and seems like a different player entirely than the one who reached the Australian Open final in 2005. Gael Monfils, who has more natural power and speed than anyone on tour, refuses to change his defensive style to a more offensive one that suits his talents. Andy Murray struggled to win his opening match against Jonathan Eysseric, an 18-year-old former junior no. 1 playing his second match at a major. Usually one expects the French Open to present many grinding, difficult matches, even for the top seeds. This year, Federer easily could reach the final without losing a set.

Federer often has said age won’t prevent him from winning in Paris in the near future. He believes he can play at his best into his early 30s, and considering what he has accomplished so far, it’s not wise to disagree with him. After this year, though, history will not be in his favor, and it’s not likely that the draw, or circumstances like weather and the health of his opponents, could be arranged any better than now.

Mr. Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine. He can be reached at tperrotta@ tennismagazine.com.