Neither of the eastern divisions has a clear-cut favorite this late into the season. While three NL teams scramble for what might only be a single playoff spot, what once looked like a rout in the race for the AL East is now a tight race. With fewer than two months left on the schedule, an extreme hot streak or slump from any one player could be the difference between watching the playoffs on television or playing in October for all five of the eastern contenders.

On May 29, with a 36–15 record, the Boston Red Sox were 14.5 games up on the last-place Yankees, but the Sox have gone just 36–32 since, while the then 21–29 Yanks have gone 46–23 during the same stretch. Thanks to down years from both of Boston’s bigtime sluggers, Manny Ramirez (882 OPS, 100 points below the next lowest on the Sox) and David Ortiz (only 19 homers after 41, 47, and 54 in the past three years) the Red Sox offense has not been the focus of their success, but they need those bats to produce to help maintain their team’s lead.

But they could also use support from a second-line player — starting shortstop Julio Lugo. After a rough start from April through June where Lugo hit just .190 AVG/.256 OBA/.283 SLG, he’s rebounded to hit .324/.373/.448 since then. Lugo was unlucky in the first half, as his .209 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was roughly 90 points below the league average. A player’s linedrive rate correlates with BABIP better than any batted-ball type, because it demonstrates an ability to make contact with some authority, and tends to reflect an ability to hit for average. If you were to correct Lugo’s BABIP for the number of line drives he was hitting at the time, you would see he should have been around .270 rather than .209; adjusting his early-season struggles for that would have put him around .251/.317/.344 — still not good, but much better than hitting .190. Given this, it’s easy to figure Lugo for somewhere between his recent outburst and the line he should have had in the first half, or something around .290/.350/.430. The Sox will need him to continue to swing the bat about that well if they are to hold on to their ever-slimming division lead.

The Yankees have had no problems with down seasons from their stars lately, with essentially the entire team coming on strong from July onward. Johnny Damon has been the only relatively struggling starter with a still-useful .272/.384/.368 line, but Melky Cabrera, his replacement in center, has hit .364/.401/.569 during the same time frame, but much of this is thanks to a BABIP of .386. Adjusting that for his line-drive rate of 21%, Cabrera should have been hitting around .308/.345/.513, which is still fantastic production from your center fielder. Cabrera hasn’t been the only lucky batter during the team’s recent hot stretch. Bobby Abreu (.361 BABIP) and Robinson Cano (.391 BABIP) also need to fear their potential for regression for the remainder of the schedule, although even playing to their expected abilities could be enough to help the Bombers overtake Boston.

Over in the NL East, the Mets are trying to hang on to their divisional lead with the Braves and Phillies breathing down their necks. The return of Moises Alou from the disabled list gives the Mets an offensive boost they will require down the stretch. Alou hit .318/.374/.445 before landing on the DL in mid-May, but since his return on July 27 he has hit .293/.364/.586. Granted, that’s a small sample of only 54 at-bats, but if he can remain around his season line of .310/.370/.494 then the Mets will have outfield production they have sorely missed all season replacing him.

Alou’s BABIP is .315, exactly where you would expect it given his 19% line-drive rate, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t keep his numbers where they are. What the Mets really need in order to avoid losing their grip on the division is to avoid any further injuries and replace Shawn Green with Lastings Milledge. Green hit .355/.412/.538 in April thanks to a .385 BABIP, but has hit just .243/.289/.371 since then.

For the Phillies, their rotation has been in shambles for the most of the season, but Kyle Kendrick has emerged from the minor leagues and has done well enough so far with a 3.75 ERA along with a 5–2 record in 69.2 innings. Kendrick has been lucky, though: Despite his below-average 3.4 strikeouts per nine and more than one homer allowed per nine innings, he has been able to succeed due to a .270 BABIP. Kendrick has been hit hard during his time in the majors, but just not for hits; his 21.4% line-drive rate should translate to a BABIP of roughly .334, 64 points higher than his present one. Kendrick has managed to strand 78% of his base runners as well, and as his 3.79 defense-adjusted ERA suggests, he has pitched in front of an above-average defense that has saved him thus far. The Phillies will need that combination of luck plus defense, lest their rotation fall apart once again.

Down in Georgia, despite adding Mark Teixeira to their lineup, the Braves need more help on offense with Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, and Brian McCann all struggling for much of the year. Francoeur has turned it on as of late, hitting .338/.380/.535 since July 1. Frenchy’s problems in the first half weren’t with his average or even his impatience. Instead he suffered a power drought, with just eight homers and 26 extrabase hits overall in 317 at-bats. The only nagging issue with Francoeur’s production is his BABIP, which sits 50 points higher than it should, at .354. He also had this issue last year, his first season in the league, but he was then below his expected BABIP in 2006. It’s difficult to figure out just where Francoeur’s BABIP should be, considering his exceptional talent, but .354 is too high. The Braves will just have to hope he can keep it up for the rest of the season if they are to get back into postseason play.

Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseball prospectus.com.