Much of the recent analysis concerning Stephon Marbury assumes that he can’t be traded, and for good reason. He is 30, but prone to acting like he’s three; his basketball skills have gone from an inexorable decline to flat out free-fall, and he’s owed $42 million between now and the summer of 2009. If Marbury’s salary were commensurate with his behavior — say, $7.50 an hour — then he would have absolutely no trade value. But his exorbitant contract (aside from being proof that even smart general managers such as Bryan Colangelo, the executive who signed Marbury to his deal five years ago in Phoenix, do stupid things sometimes) is exactly what might create a small market for Marbury. The market, however, isn’t open for Marbury to actually go somewhere and play basketball

The angle of a change of scenery has perhaps been exhausted with Marbury. He’s worn out his welcome in New Jersey, Phoenix, and in his own hometown. The Knicks have fined Marbury $195,000 for missing Tuesday night’s game in Phoenix, a solid indication that this relationship is probably finished. Marbury’s skill set is of a reserve who shoots too much, and his volatile personality makes him a big clubhouse risk. A Marbury trade will work much like last summer’s Steve Francis deal —the former Knicks guard may not have even set foot in Portland, and was instead bought out immediately. But the Knicks can’t expect a 20 and 10 guy such as Zack Randolph in return this time. There’s less roster deadweight these days, a sure sign that some sanity is returning to NBA executive action. A team looking for cap relief in the summer of 2009 may find Marbury’s contract to have significant value. The summer of ’09 will be a good time for a rebuilding team to have some cap room. Unless they agree to extensions, Sixers forward Andre Iguodala, Bobcats pivotman Emeka Okafor, Bulls guard Ben Gordon, and Bulls forward Luol Deng will be free agents that summer. Also, several top players including Pistons guard Rip Hamilton, Warriors forward Al Harrington, Pacers center Jermaine O’Neal, and Lakers guard Kobe Bryant all have opt-out clauses that they may exercise around that time. A shrewd GM of a rebuilding team could potentially draw up a plan that includes a lottery pick this summer, and a free agent acquisition in the summer of ’09, as the cornerstones to his team’s revival.

The most obvious trade partner for the Knicks is the Sacramento Kings, their opponent tomorrow night. The Kings are in disarray and would like to move some bodies to get closer to a new start. I’m sure the Kings’ management would like to trade guard Mike Bibby and forward Ron Artest, but I doubt either will enter the conversation in a trade for Marbury. Both Bibby and Artest have contracts that expire in the summer of ’09 already, so there’s no advantage gained in moving them for another contract with the same end point. But the Kings are in no short supply of underperforming players with big contracts, and they would be happy to move some combination of center Brad Miller or forwards Kenny Thomas and Sharif Abdur-Rahim. Each is on the books until 2010. So moving them for a deal that ends sooner should be attractive to Kings’ GM Geoff Petrie.

Portland is another viable trading partner. Indicative of how much dead weight was on the Blazers roster, GM Kevin Pritchard has been wheeling and dealing since he got there, and there are still players he’d probably like to move. Portland could move center Raef LaFrentz, whose contract expires in ’09, and swingman Darius Miles, whose deal runs until ’10, for Marbury. This might do some good for both teams. Miles is a player who has played well in his first year with each of his new teams. Also coming off of microfracture knee surgery, the word on the grapevine is that the one-time knucklehead has finally matured during his recovery process. Reuniting him with Knicks swingman Quentin Richardson (his best friend from his early days in the league with the Los Angeles Clippers) might pay dividends. LaFrentz’s contract will give the Knicks some cap relief earlier than acquiring Miller or one of the Kings forwards would. Meanwhile, this would give the Trail Blazers a dream scenario, a contending young team with scads of cap room to spend on a first tier free agent. Milwaukee and Indiana are less likely suitors, as they have bad deals to move. But it would be harder to make the salaries balance out for a deal. Just to reiterate, don’t envision Marbury in any new team color just yet — my assumption is that any team receiving Marbury would immediately buy him out. He wouldn’t have to leave his Westchester home until some club desperate for backcourt help deigns to call on him.

Why wouldn’t cap room in July 2009 matter to the Knicks? Not to sound like a broken record, but they are already capped out. The Randolph deal insured that the Knicks’ next glimpse of salary flexibility will not come until the summer of 2010 or possibly 2011, depending on the contract extensions of forward David Lee and guard Nate Robinson. Cap management skills are slowly infiltrating NBA front offices, which should give local fans hope. Some time before the century is out, those skills may show up in the Madison Square Garden front office. Until then, fiascoes like the Marbury affair will be the price the Knicks pay.

mjohnson@nysun.com