There’s the thing about the Eastern Conference: No matter how bad it is, somebody has to win it. Moreover, the league office still insists that the winner of the conference will be invited to the Finals, even if they’re 39–43 or something.

Fortunately for the winner, once they get to the Finals, anything can happen. Just look at the past three seasons. While the West has dominated interleague play, the East has won two of the past three Finals and very nearly made it a clean sweep. That’s partly luck (Karl Malone’s knee injury in ’04), partly skill (Dwyane Wade taking over last year), and a big part is that the Western teams spend two months beating each other silly.

But what it adds up to is that one of the 15 Eastern teams is going to be playing in late June in spite of itself, and when it gets to that point it will have a decent shot at winning the whole enchilada.

Thus, the Eastern Conference race isn’t necessarily just an academic exercise leading up to a four-game humiliation such as the one the Nets suffered against the Lakers in 2002. As pathetic as this so-called race may look right now, it does have legitimate bearing on who will eventually win the championship.

So it’s time to sit down and handicap the Eastern race. While it may look at first glance like a jumble of 7–9 and 6–11 teams, there are actually some marked differences in quality among the clubs, distinctions that I’ll outline below. Obviously, injuries, luck and other unforeseen events will come into play between now and year-end, so take this for what it’s worth — a snapshot of how things stand. Right now, it ain’t pretty, but if you’re looking for some wheat amid all this chaff, here’s how it stacks up:

The no-hopers: Philadelphia, New York, Charlotte. None of these teams was expected to make the playoffs before the season. None has given any indication that it is a playoff caliber team in the season’s first month. None has competent management that makes you hopeful that things might change in the near future. For all three, it’s pretty much wait until next year.

The crushing disappointments: Washington, Milwaukee, and Boston. The first two teams made the playoffs a year ago, while the third was pegged by some (ahem) to make the postseason this year. Even in a dilapidated Eastern Conference, these teams haven’t looked up to snuff, and in the case of all three leaky defense has been the main culprit. All three could make a push based on the talent on their rosters, but none has given any signal it they might consider doing so.

The even more crushing disappointment: Miami. I am shocked at what a lousy team this is. The Heat’s 7–9 record significantly overstates how well they’ve played. They’ve lost six times at home already, three of them by more than 20 points, and have managed a losing record against a relatively easy early-season slate that gets much more difficult in December.

The Heat’s supporting cast is so bad that even with Dwyane Wade, they’re a terrible offensive team, ranking 29th in Offensive Efficiency (my measure of a team’s points per 100 possessions). Don’t count on Shaq to save the day either — that estimate of 4-to-6 weeks for him to return from knee surgery is wildly optimistic, and he was way out of shape even before the surgery. I wouldn’t have believed it was possible for a defending champion to bring back the same team and end up in the lottery, but this team is making me a believer.

The teams who will make the playoffs by accident: Toronto, Atlanta, and New Jersey. I have nothing particularly good to say about the Raptors or Hawks, except that they’re less awful than the other teams in the East. With young stars like Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson and just enough supporting players to make an impact, I think these are shaping up as the conference’s final two playoff teams. Fortunately, each of the teams will count this as a wildly successful campaign, even if they qualify with something like a 36–46 record. As for the Nets, somebody has to win the Titanic Division. Might as well be them.

The crushing disappointments that will nonetheless make the second round: Indiana and Cleveland. With constant injuries and terrible chemistry, Indiana seems headed toward a perfunctory and utterly passionless 41–41 season that will get them a firstround rematch with the Nets and quite possibly a ticket to Round 2. But that’s not nearly what they hoped for, and will set the stage for a total nuking of the roster after the season.

As for the Cavs, I picked them to win the East based largely on a projected improvement in LeBron’s supporting cast. Oops. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has lost it, nobody in the backcourt has found it, and Larry Hughes is already working on his first injury of the young season. The Cavs are 10–7 thanks to an easy earlyseason schedule, but the 63-point meltdown in Houston over the weekend showed the severity of their problems.

The rising force: Orlando. The Magic came out of the gate 13–5 to put them on top of the Eastern Conference in the early going. With a young nucleus of players like Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo and Trevor Ariza (thanks Isiah), as well as a nice chunk of 2007 cap room, the Magic figure to be players in the Eastern title chase for years to come.

But for this year, I still have concerns. The Magic have no frontcourt depth behind Howard and Milicic and are facing the inevitable Grant Hill injury. Plus, they’ve been very fortunate in close games and won’t keep going 6–1 in contests decided by five points or less.

The old standby: Detroit. The Pistons are worse without Ben Wallace. Fortunately, the ground around them has sunk so much that they don’t seem any worse off in the conference hierarchy. As long as the Fab Four of Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace continues its remarkable run of good health, they’ll be in the hunt.

The team that’s better than you think: Chicago. Believe it or not, the sub-.500 Bulls have been the class of the East thus far. Granted, this is a complement along the lines of “the best sushi in Wyoming” or “the best beach town in Siberia,” but in spite of a losing record the Bulls have done well against their conference mates — going 6–3 vs. the East — and remember, only five of their first 16 games were at home.

Moreover, the Bulls have more potential for improvement than any team from here on out. That’s true both internally — rookies Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha figure to improve substantially as the year goes on. And externally, no team has more trade assets than Chicago, which could allow it to net a Big Kahuna like Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen at the trade deadline. Even though the Bulls are off to a rough start, the rest of the conference has been so disappointing that this still looks like the team to beat.

jhollinger@nysun.com.