Five Players Poised To Break Out This Season

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The New York Sun

It’s time for another annual ritual of the NBA exhibition season: choosing this year’s breakout players. Every season, a few players burst into the limelight, and arrive with a kind of “out of nowhere” story angle. But they’re not necessarily out of nowhere: Either they have played well in limited minutes, or their team is far-off the beaten path.

Most of my choices for breakouts are men who will receive a disproportionate share of their team’s success. In some cases, it’s because other reasons for success are old news. In others, it’s a matter of emerging players getting a chance to shine. So, drumroll please:

TYRUS THOMAS, CHICAGO BULLS

I don’t want to read too much into preseason statistics, but sometimes you can see if a player worked on a damning weakness during the off-season. As a rookie last year, Thomas displayed breathtaking athleticism in blocking shots, rebounding, and wreaking havoc in the passing lanes. His offense was, well, more raw than sashimi. He shot only 60.6% from the free throw line, and 47.5% from the field — not a good number for a player who is usually near the rim. He said he was going to spend the off-season shooting 500 jump shots a day, and so far the evidence suggests that he did his homework. Through the weekend, he was shooting 81% from the line (17 for 21), and 54.8% from the field (17 for 31). And he has an impressive ratio of roughly two foul shots for every three field goal attempts.

The Chicago Bulls have an opening at power forward, and Thomas is expected to share time with rookie Joakim Noah and veteran Joe Smith. But with these kinds of numbers, the bulk of the playing will be Thomas’s by Thanksgiving. Also, the Bulls figure to be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but as of right now, credit has been heaped on coach Scott Skiles, forward Luol Deng, and the guard tandem of Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. Thomas’s athleticism almost guarantees a few highlight clip plays and with his improved shooting, he will likely get a lot of attention.

EMEKA OKAFOR, CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The Charlotte Bobcats figure to be one of the more interesting teams in the Eastern Conference this season. Despite losing forwards Sean May and Adam Morrison, they still can be expected to contend for a second-tier playoff spot. For a team that is just starting its fourth season, that’s no mean feat. Their perimeter players, forward Gerald Wallace and guards Jason Richardson and Raymond Felton, are well known. But Okafor, the franchise’s first draft pick and also the no. 1 pick overall three seasons ago, has gone largely unheralded for his fine play.

Last season, Okafor’s numbers took a big step forward. He averaged 16.5 points and 13 boards per 40 minutes of action. In addition, his shooting percentage improved from 41.5% to 53.2%, a direct factor of having better teammates. In the past, Okafor was often forced to bail out the Charlotte offense by taking tough shots with the 24-second clock near expiration. Now, he gets most of his shots after defenses are drawn to the Bobcats’ effective perimeter threats.

ANDREA BARGNANI, TORONTO RAPTORS

Like Thomas, Bargnani will likely receive some hype long before he finishes maturing as a player. I think Toronto will be able to stay in the Atlantic Division race despite the Celtics’ acquisition of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Cousy. Chris Bosh, the Raptors’ All-Star forward, won’t receive all the credit. Before an injury cost him the final few games of the season and the playoffs, Bargnani was finding his niche in the Toronto offense. After the All-Star break, he averaged 14.9 points per game. Most importantly, it was on efficient shooting, particularly his 40.3% from behind the arc. The rookie’s marksmanship made the up-tempo Raptor offense difficult to contain. Bargnani, the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, still has much to refine in his game. He has few post moves and his defense is still suspect. Those flaws notwithstanding, Bargnani will receive a disproportionate amount of hype as the new face on a team that should establish themselves as a consistent winner this season.

JOSH SMITH, JOSH CHILDRESS, ATLANTA HAWKS

Some of my friends and I refer to the “Houston Oilers Syndrome” in describing a team that has been bad for so long that they accumulate too much young talent not to inch into the winning column. The NFL’s Oilers, who are now known as the Tennessee Titans, accomplished this feat in the 1980s. The NBA’s Atlanta Hawks are a prime nominee to do it as well this season. The Hawks last made the playoffs during 1999, a season marred by a lockout.

But thanks to repeated visits to the lottery, and a fortuitous placement in a division where the declining Miami Heat and the stagnant Washington Wizards are the power teams, the Hawks should actually contend for a playoff spot this season.

The credit for their rise should go to their stellar wingmen, who are both named Josh. Smith starts and puts up numbers just shy of All-Star caliber, while the lanky Childress is a reserve almost on par with the Spurs’ Manu Ginobili in his ability to wreak havoc on defense and hit outside shots. There are several Hawks who could garner attention should the team rise above sea level for the first time this century. But the Joshes have established the best track record.

mjohnson@nysun.com


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