Four years ago, a second-year coach brought his undefeated, yet underwhelming, team to the Arizona desert to take on a Miami juggernaut for the national championship. Few gave the coach or his team much of a chance, yet their double-overtime victory remains one of the classic games in college football history.

Fast-forward four years and the storyline for the BCS National Championship is almost uncanny in its similarity. The major difference? Ohio State was the plucky long shot then and is the solid favorite now.

Some details have changed, including the venue (the Arizona Cardinals’ brand-new University of Phoenix Stadium) and the name of the game (this year marks the debut of the stand-alone title game; in 2003 the title was contested in the Fiesta Bowl). But the 2006 Florida Gators have the second-year coach, Urban Meyer, and the underdog status of the Ohio State team.

Dig deeper and more resemblances emerge. Ohio State’s quarterback that season, Craig Krenzel, was an unspectacular veteran who won without producing huge numbers. Florida’s starting quarterback is a senior, Chris Leak, a prized recruit who has had an upand-down career in Gainesville. Only this season has he become the Gators’ true leader, while ironically ceding playing time to a true freshman, Tim Tebow.

And like that Ohio State team, this Florida group will arrive in Glendale with a substantial chip on its collective shoulder, the result of both having its place in the championship game questioned and enduring more than a month of talk about how it is likely to get blown out by the superior Buckeyes.

Florida earned its place in the championship game by going 12–1 against a schedule that included 10 bowl teams, but despite that success, the Gators have rarely looked dominant — another trait they share with the 2002 Buckeyes. The overall strength of the SEC helped Florida jump Michigan to reach this contest, but the berth was not without controversy.

Michigan’s loss to USC in the Rose Bowl a week ago has removed any lingering questions about the Gators’ merits for the title game, but other bowl results have cast doubt on the assumptions about the SEC. The league has a 5–3 bowl record this year, but two of the losses came in head-to-head matches against the Big Ten. Penn State and Wisconsin — both slight underdogs — topped Tennessee and Wisconsin, respectively, in New Year’s Day games.

If anything can be gleaned from those contests, it is this: The idea that Big Ten teams are slower than their SEC counterparts is a myth. If Florida pulls the upset, it won’t be because the Gators are more athletic than the Buckeyes.

That’s not to suggest that Florida’s defense isn’t an especially fast unit. On the contrary, the Gators’ overall defensive speed gives them their greatest chance to slow down the Ohio State spread attack. But Ohio State has just as many athletes on its roster.

The only knock against the Buckeyes this year regards their schedule. The Big Ten was a top-heavy league, and Ohio State did not play 12–1 Wisconsin. Even Ohio State’s win over then no. 2 Michigan has lost some significance after the Wolverines went down meekly in Pasadena. Still, Ohio State won handily at Texas and was hardly threatened the rest of the way until the Michigan game.

That contest, expected to be a defensive slugfest, instead turned into a 42–39 shootout and a circus of big plays. The Gators must avoid falling into the trap that killed the Wolverines — namely failing to get to Ohio State’s Heisman-winning quarterback, Troy Smith, allowing him to pick them apart 12 yards at a time.

Smith is an accomplished scrambler, but it was what he did in the pocket this year that earned him the Heisman. Against Michigan, Smith was never rattled by one of the nation’s best pass rushes, using his accuracy (67% pass completions and just five interceptions this season) and decision making to find the open man on nearly every play. When the Wolverines crowded the line in short-yardage, Smith went over the top for big plays, and their concern about his efficient passing led to uncharacteristic big plays in the run game.

Florida’s defensive line is talented, but not deep, so getting a consistent pass rush as the game wears on could be problematic. But the Gators won’t just sit back and allow Smith to pick them apart while rushing just four men. Florida will blitz — using linebacker Brandon Siler, safety Reggie Nelson, and even corners — to force Smith into quick throws and hope that its secondary can prevent big plays by the Buckeyes outstanding receivers, Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez.

Still, blitzing Smith is a dicey proposition. Even as he uses his legs to buy time, he keeps his eyes downfield, leading to big plays against busted coverages. Both Ginn and Gonzalez have the speed to get open deep, but Florida might be willing to trade a big play or two for the opportunity to get hits on the Ohio State quarterback.

Ohio State’s running backs don’t generate a lot of headlines, but both Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells have the ability to break long runs — even against the Gators’ fifth-ranked rush defense. Florida can’t win this game if it both fails to slow Smith and allows the Buckeyes to run the ball.

Offensively, the Gators are still adapting to Meyer’s spread-option attack, and the results aren’t always pretty. Though a senior, Leak still has a disturbing habit of making game-turning mistakes. He threw two terrible interceptions in the SEC championship, including a shovel pass that was returned for a touchdown. In his final game in a Gators’ uniform, Leak must play mistake-free, or close to it. Florida simply can’t afford to end up on the minus side of the turnover ledger.

Realizing that Leak is not a gifted rusher, Meyer has asked his quarterback to run the option less this season, but has augmented the offense by spotting Tebow, a 6-foot-3- inch, 229-pound fullback masquerading as a quarterback. Despite the fact that Tebow runs left virtually every time he comes into the game, the freshman averaged 5.4 yards a carry and scored seven touchdowns. Still, defenses also must be wary of his arm — he completed 21 of 32 passes, with four scores. With the month off to prepare, Meyer, who loves trick plays, likely has installed some additional pass plays for Tebow.

Another player that Meyer will involve in the game plan is freshman Percy Harvin, a 5-foot-11 jitterbug of a receiver who will also see the ball on direct handoffs and reverses. Against Arkansas in the SEC championship, he scored on a 67-yard run when he lined up at tailback.

Even if the Gators play over their heads on both sides of the ball, special teams could be an issue. They have solid coverage units, but the return units are nothing spectacular (the same can be said for Ohio State, despite the presence of Ginn) and their kicker Chris Hetland, hit on just 4 of 13 field goal attempts this year. Florida’s hopes of winning a close game will be hampered if that trend continues.

Florida is also one of the most penalized teams in America, losing more than 20 yards more per game to yellow flags than the Buckeyes. The Gators have enough talent to beat Ohio State, but not if they beat themselves.

Having been on the other side of the fence just four years ago, Tressel is unlikely to allow Ohio State to become overconfident. All signs point to another Buckeyes national title, but Glendale has already seen one upset this bowl season (Boise State’s overtime triumph over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl). Florida can make it twofor-two, but only if it comes up with its best performance of the season

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.