Flower Alley Could Belie Bellamy Road

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The New York Sun

Saturday afternoon, America’s oldest sporting facility will host a standing room only crowd of racing fans (actually, even standing room will be scarce) to watch the midsummer derby, the pinnacle of the best meet in the nation, the 136th running on the $1 million Travers Stakes.


In 1863, pugilist, gambler, and congressman John Morrissey ran a race meet at a little track called Horse Haven in Saratoga Springs, which was already becoming a renowned resort. It was a smash. The day after the races ended, Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt raised $10,000 in two hours, $3,000 of it his own, and founded the Saratoga Association, which purchased 94 acres across the street from Horse Haven.


More reputable folks than Morrissey were installed in positions of prominence, although Morrissey kept his finger in the pot. William Travers, a prominent businessman and breeder, was named the president of the Saratoga Association, and the Travers was run that first year, 1864, with a colt named Kentucky getting under the wire out front. Travers owned him.


Something feels right about the Travers cup staying close to home, as it did last year when Mary Lou Whitney notched her family’s fourth Travers win (all with homebreds) with Birdstone’s dramatic victory.


The clouds rolled in like a thick felt blanket and the air cracked with lightning. The post parade seemed like a harbinger of the apocalypse. Coming off a 12-week layoff, Birdstone dashed to the lead on the stretch while the favored Lion Heart crumbled after setting the pace, finishing last.


It was redemptive for trainer Nick Zito and Birdstone, whose victory at the Belmont Stakes had been overshadowed by the upsetting of Smarty Jones.


Zito again finds himself the crux of the race. For to speak of the Travers this year is to speak of Bellamy Road.


In April, the young 3-year-old blew the doors off of Aqueduct by winning the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths. We all thought we had him, the Big Horse, maybe a Triple Crown winner. He was a monster.


But when he went to the Kentucky Derby as the favorite, Spanish Chestnut set a suicidal pace, and Bellamy Road finished seventh. That he finished at all is a credit. He came out of that race with an injury – popped splints – and has been off the track ever since.


There were two slots at Saratoga to which he was pointed. Originally, Zito said he’d run him in the 7-furlong King’s Bishop stakes (also running on Saturday) rather than ask Bellamy to make it over the Travers distance of 1 1/4 miles without a prep race in him. But undefeated Lost in the Fog, the best 3-year-old sprinter – if not the best 3-year-old running – will be going to the gate in the King’s Bishop.


So the decision became a thorny one.


On the one hand, send your front-running horse into a speed duel with Lost in the Fog, which he’ll probably lose. On the other hand, send him out at a distance he might not be prepared to cover, against what’s left of the routers in the 3-year-old division (Bellamy Road was not the only horse sidelined in a year plagued by injury). It’s a no-win situation: Zito looks like a chump either way.


Here’s what Zito was saying to the press in late July:


“The Travers is a stretch, a mile and a quarter – we couldn’t do it,” Zito said. “I would have loved to have brought him back at a mile, but the timing is good.” He also said: “I know [the King’s Bishop is] a tough race, but Bellamy Road, when he’s right, he can run with any horse.”


That was only a month ago.


Now, we find that perhaps Bellamy cannot, in fact, run with any horse, but that he’s suddenly better suited to 1 1/4 miles. Which makes me think he’s not ready.


Zito, it seems, has made the worst of a bad situation.


I’d love to see Bellamy Road get out front and take the Travers gate to wire by 28 lengths. But I can’t help but think that perhaps, given the way this came about, that we’ll have to turn elsewhere to find the winner tomorrow.


At the first call, we’ll find Bellamy Road and Flower Alley stalked by Reverberate and Roman Ruler. By the third call, we’ll see Roman Ruler move, with Chekhov coming on from the back. Reverberate will hang in there, while Bellamy folds. Flower Alley will take the lead.


On the stretch, Flower Alley can outrun Roman Ruler, and he will.


Bettor’s Box For the 136th Running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga


Bellamy Road
TRAINER: Nick Zito
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano
LAST OUT (FINISH): Kentucky Derby (7)
ML ODDS: 2-1


The obvious favorite, George Steinbrenner’s colt is unbeatable if up to it, but that is a big if. As a fan, you want it; as a gambler, a very questionable move.


Don’t Get Mad
TRAINER: Ron Ellis
JOCKEY: Edgar Prado
LAST OUT (FINISH): Swaps (5)
ML ODDS: 10-1


Upped his rep by getting past a bunch of dead-on-their-feet animals in the Derby to finish 4th. Came back to run wide and win at Churchill, and then had nothing in the Swaps. If he’d only been beaten there by Surf Cat – a nice horse -I’d look, but fifth?


Andromeda’s Hero
TRAINER: Nick Zito
JOCKEY: Corey Nakatani
LAST OUT (FINISH): Jim Dandy (3rd)
ML ODDS: 12-1


A closer with no rally last out at a shorter distance in the Jim Dandy, which was run on the same track, but at slower than this looks. I’ve liked this horse, but I’m starting to wonder what’s to like.


Reverberate
TRAINER: Sal Russo
JOCKEY: Jose Santos
LAST OUT (FINISH): Jim Dandy (2)
ML ODDS: 8-1


Nice finish in the Jim Dandy. If he rates behind the duel between Bellamy and Flower, he will be in a good spot, but I think he’ll stay there and get passed by whatever is closing from just behind him to stay in a little of the money in 3rd or 4th.


Chekhov
TRAINER: Patrick Biancone
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens
LAST OUT (FINISH): Haskell (4)
ML ODDS: 10-1


Couldn’t do it at Monmouth in the Long Branch, and couldn’t get up on the board in the Haskell. Why now? Pace. It’s going to be fast up front, and maybe he’s knocking on the door. My long shot.


Flower Alley
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY: John Velasquez
LAST OUT (FINISH): Jim Dandy, (1)
ML ODDS: 3-1


Looked like he came into his own at the Dandy. Flower runs a great race from just off the pace, but Velasquez must resist Bellamy’s pull. Not long odds, exactly, but when’s the last time you tripled your money on Wall Street? The overlay.


Roman Ruler
TRAINER: Bob Baffert
JOCKEY: Jerry Bailey
LAST OUT (FINISH): Haskell (1)
ML ODDS: 5-2


Nice two last outs, off a quick pace in the Dwyer to win it, and took the Haskell from a great stalk. Would like to have seen a little more dominance in those victories, but that’s why he’s not the favorite.


The final SkinnY at the window:


I’ll lose my money using Flower Alley on top in a trifecta made up of Roman Ruler and Chekhov, with Reverberate as a wild card, which I’ll wheel in on the 2 slot, making the ticket 7, 4 or 6, 3.


I will also use the same numbers in an exacta.



Mr. Watman is the author of “Race Day: A Spot on the Rail.” He can be reached at mwatman@nysun.com.


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